ATP - ATP Finals Singles
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by Steve Ashfield | in Tennis Predictions
The top two players in the world renew their rivalry on Sunday. Top seed Jannik Sinner faces second-seeded Carlos Alcaraz in the ATP Finals title decider. Can Sinner retain the title he won last year? Read our match prediction below.
Only Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have successfully defended the ATP Finals in the past two decades. Jannik Sinner will be attempting to join that illustrious pair by beating Carlos Alcaraz. It'll be a degree of revenge for the Italian after losing his world number one ranking to him earlier this week. Sinner has made it to this final without dropping a set, more about this in the form section of this preview.
It's 27 years since a Spanish player (Alex Corretja) won this title. Carlos Alcaraz is playing in the final of this tournament for the first time and like his opponent has won all four of his matches in Turin this week. He'll be aiming to cap a fantastic week for him by defeating Sinner for a third successive time.
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Jannk SInner - Carlos Alcaraz: Form Analysis
Jannik Sinner has won 57 of his 63 matches played this year. On hard courts, the Italian has a 38-3 record and has won all 14 of the matches he's played indoors on this surface. The Italian has won five titles in 2025, four of them on hard courts.
This week has seen him win all four of his matches without dropping a set. Saturday saw him beat Alex de Minaur in their semi-final. Three of the eight sets he's played have gone to either 7-5 or a tie-break. Sinner has won his last 14 matches and only Alexander Zverev has won a set against him.
Alcaraz is ahead of Sinner in the head-to-head.
Carlos Alcaraz leads Jannik Sinner 11-5 in previous meetings. Six out of eight outdoor hard court matches have been won by the Spaniard. He also won their only match played on an indoor hard court surface. This is the fifth match between the pair this year and Alcaraz has won four of them. One was via retirement and the only one on a hard court was outdoors in the US Open final.
Alcaraz has also won all four of his matches this week but did drop a set to Taylor Fritz. He beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in Saturday's semi-final taking his 2025 record to 71-8 record this year and 37-6 on hard courts (9-2 indoors). The new world number one has won eight titles in 2025, half on hard courts.
56 of his last 58 matches in singles tournaments have been won,
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Jannk SInner & Carlos Alcaraz Squad Analysis
Jannk SInner - Carlos Alcaraz Key Points
- Alcaraz has won 11 of his 16 previous matches against Sinner.
- Alcaraz has won four of his five matches against Sinner this year.
- Alcaraz has only lost two of the last 58 matches he's played in singles tournaments.
- Alcaraz has won eight titles this year, four on hard courts.
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Our Jannk SInner vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
This is the final that we've been hoping to see. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have a tremendous rivalry and this is the sixth time they have met this year and the only win Sinner has had was on grass when winning the Wimbledon final.
Alcaraz took over from Sinner as world number one after winning all three of his group matches. He's never won this title but has been in great form in recent months and knows full well he can beat Sinner. Our Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz prediction is Alcaraz wins.
Jannk SInner vs Carlos Alcaraz - Other Interesting Predictions
More than 2.5 sets to be played
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Jannk SInner vs Carlos Alcaraz match : Frequently asked questions
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