Freiburg vs Leipzig Prediction & Betting Tips - Bundesliga
Germany - Bundesliga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Bundesliga Predictions
Freiburg need to stay ahead of two chasing teams if they want to finish seventh in the 2025-26 Bundesliga, as they play Leipzig on matchday 34. This match in Freiburg on Saturday between the 7th-placed ‘Breisgau Brazilians’ and the 3rd-placed ‘Red Bulls’ is likely to see a stubborn home performance with a Freiburg win or draw as our prediction.
With 44 points (W12, D8, L13), Freiburg are one point above Eintracht Frankfurt and Augsburg below them, as they look to finish seventh and qualify for Europe next season. Leipzig have 65 points (W33, D20, L5) and are guaranteed to finish third.
The hosts were beaten 3-2 away at Hamburg, leaving their fate of finishing seventh to this result. Four defeats in their last six competitive matches (W1, D1) are a worry, as Freiburg also prepare for the Europa League final next week.
Home form could give a new lease of life, as Hamburg are unbeaten in their last four competitive home games (W3, D1).
Leipzig beat St Pauli 2-1 last weekend to make it six victories in their last seven Bundesliga matches (L1). They are already guaranteed a third-place finish, but that hasn’t stopped them from picking up comfortable wins.
Their away form has also been impressive, although three defeats in their last six competitive trips give hope for the home side.
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Freiburg v Leipzig Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.65 | 3.85 | 2.48 |
|
|
2.48 | 3.76 | 2.6 |
|
|
2.61 | 3.76 | 2.47 |
|
|
2.45 | 3.8 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.46 | 3.7 | 2.58 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Freiburg and Leipzig?
Our prediction for the Freiburg vs Leipzig match is: Freiburg or draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/05/2026 between Freiburg and Leipzig in Bundesliga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.51% for a win of Freiburg against Leipzig with odds of 2.71 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Freiburg vs Leipzig is 11.96% with odds of 3.92 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 45.53% chance ⭐ for a win of Leipzig vs Freiburg with odds of 2.7 at Betway.
Freiburg - Leipzig Prediction and Best Odds:
| Freiburg Leipzig Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Leipzig wins | 45.53% | 2.7 at Betway |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.92% | 1.52 at Betsson |
| Both Team To Score | 72.08% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Leipzig | 22.12% | 6.75 at LSbet |
Freiburg vs Leipzig Form
Freiburg and Leipzig's standings in the Bundesliga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
65 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | +19 |
|
7
|
47 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | -6 |
Freiburg and Leipzig Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Bundesliga
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Bundesliga
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
26 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 May 2026 - Europa League
3 May 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
9 Apr 2026 - Europa League
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
19 Mar 2026 - Europa League
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Bundesliga
30 Apr 2026 - Europa League
26 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
23 Apr 2026 - DFB Pokal
16 Apr 2026 - Europa League
12 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - Bundesliga
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 May 2026 - Bundesliga
24 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
20 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
7 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
21 Feb 2026 - Bundesliga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Bundesliga
18 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
4 Apr 2026 - Bundesliga
15 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2026 - Bundesliga
11 Feb 2026 - DFB Pokal
Freiburg vs Leipzig Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
17 %
83 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
14 Jan 2026 - Bundesliga
8 Mar 2025 - Bundesliga
26 Oct 2024 - Bundesliga
6 Apr 2024 - Bundesliga
12 Nov 2023 - Bundesliga
6 May 2023 - Bundesliga
Freiburg against Leipzig Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
F. Muller
DefenderB. Ogbus
L. Kubler
A. Jung
C. Gunter
MidfielderV. Grifo
C. Irie
L. Holer
M. Philipp
M. Vandevoordt
DefenderE. Bitshiabu
MidfielderE. Banzuzi
R. Baku
X. Schlager
ForwardT. Gomis
J. Bakayoko
A. Nusa
Romulo
Missing players
Y. Suzuki
L. Zingerle
DefenderD. Raum
MidfielderA. Thomas
V. Gebel
Most goals and assists
Freiburg
Leipzig
I. Matanovic
(11 Goals)
C. Baumgartner
(13 Goals)
V. Grifo
(4 Assists)
, 
J. Manzambi
(4 Assists)
, 
M. Ginter
(4 Assists)
D. Raum
(7 Assists)
, 
Y. Diomande
(7 Assists)
Freiburg - Leipzig Key Points
- Freiburg avoided defeat in three of their last five Bundesliga games.
- At home, Freiburg lost only two of their last 15 Bundesliga fixtures.
- In all competitions, Freiburg won three and drew one of their last four home games.
- Leipzig lost three of their last six away matches in all competitions.
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Our Freiburg vs Leipzig Prediction
Freiburg are ahead in the race to finish seventh, but any minor slip could see them fail in the European qualification race at the last step. The hosts can also qualify for Europe by winning the Europa League final next week against Aston Villa but wouldn’t want to leave their chances only to that result. The visitors have nothing to play for but have been racking up wins effortlessly.
Home form could come to Freiburg’s rescue, and our Freiburg vs Leipzig prediction is Freiburg or draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Freiburg Leipzig
| Freiburg vs Leipzig | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg wins | 3.28 | 2.71 | -17.4% |
| Draw | 4.31 | 3.92 | -9.0% |
| Leipzig wins | 2.09 | 2.7 | +29.2% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Leipzig is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 29.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 47.8% and is now 37.0% (-10.8%)
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
