Brazil - Brasileirão Serie A
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Football Predictions
Struggling Sao Paulo will travel to Rio to take on Brazilian Serie A leaders Flamengo. The visitors have been sliding down the standings, and this finds them 14th. Let’s have a look at the match preview and a prediction.
Flamengo are neck and neck with Cruzeiro at the league summit but have the benefit of a game in hand, both having registered 24 points. The hosts are coming off a solid performance at the Club World Cup and will be looking to carry the positives here.
Luis Felipe’s charges only lost to Bayern Munich and return to domestic action having suffered just one defeat in 11 league games.
Sao Paulo have a familiar face back in the dugout after a tough run so far. Hernan Crespo is back for a second stint and looking to once again lead the team to silverware. To get there, the Argentine must first instill some consistency in the team.
Starting that against Flamengo may, however, be pushing things too far. The visitors are coming into this match straight off a 3-1 loss at home to Vasco da Gama.
That was their third straight league defeat, and they have just one win in the last seven. It is worse away from home, as Sao Paulo haven't won any of their last eight in Serie A, stretching all the way to last season.
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The Best Betting Odds for Flamengo v SAO Paulo Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.45 | 4 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.4 | 3.75 | 8 |
|
|
1.44 | 3.9 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.45 | 4 | 7.5 |
|
|
1.47 | 4 | 7.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Flamengo and SAO Paulo?
Our prediction for the Flamengo vs SAO Paulo match is: Flamengo to win and over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/07/2025 between Flamengo and SAO Paulo in Brasileirão Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 55.16% for a win of Flamengo against SAO Paulo with odds of 1.47 at Unibet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Flamengo vs SAO Paulo is 17.04% with odds of 4.2 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 27.8% chance ⭐ for a win of SAO Paulo vs Flamengo with odds of 9.13 at 22bet.
Flamengo - SAO Paulo Prediction and Best Odds:
| Flamengo SAO Paulo Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Flamengo wins | 55.16% | 1.47 at Unibet |
| Under 2.5 | 55.29% | 2.11 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 50.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Flamengo | 25.58% | 4 at Betfair |
Flamengo vs SAO Paulo Form
Flamengo and SAO Paulo's standings in the Brasileirão Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
46 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 35 |
|
7
|
32 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
Flamengo and SAO Paulo Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
24 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
20 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
16 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
1 Jun 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 May 2025 - Copa Libertadores
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
20 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
16 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
1 Jun 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
28 May 2025 - Copa Libertadores
21 May 2025 - Copa do Brasil
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
25 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
7 May 2025 - Copa Libertadores
4 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
1 May 2025 - Copa do Brasil
22 Apr 2025 - Copa Libertadores
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Jun 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
31 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
27 May 2025 - Copa Libertadores
24 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
20 May 2025 - Copa do Brasil
17 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
12 Jun 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
27 May 2025 - Copa Libertadores
24 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
17 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
14 May 2025 - Copa Libertadores
2 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
31 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
20 May 2025 - Copa do Brasil
11 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
6 May 2025 - Copa Libertadores
26 Apr 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
23 Apr 2025 - Copa Libertadores
Flamengo vs SAO Paulo Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
19 Jan 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
17 Apr 2024 - Brasileirão Serie A
6 Dec 2023 - Brasileirão Serie A
24 Sep 2023 - Copa do Brasil
17 Sep 2023 - Copa do Brasil
Flamengo against SAO Paulo Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 5 - 3 - 2
Most goals and assists
Flamengo
SAO Paulo
G. De Arrascaeta
(14 Goals)
A. Silva
(9 Goals)
G. De Arrascaeta
(11 Assists)
Luciano
(4 Assists)
,
A. Silva
(4 Assists)
, 
N. Ferraresi
(4 Assists)
Flamengo - SAO Paulo Key Points
- Flamengo won four of their last five home league matches.
- Sao Paulo are winless in their last five away league matches.
- Sao Paulo lost each of their last three outings in the league.
- Flamengo’s last five league matches had over 2.5 goals scored.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in four home league games against Sao Paulo.
- Three of Sao Paulo’s last four league games had at least three goals scored.
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Our Flamengo vs SAO Paulo Prediction
Sao Paulo haven't had a lot going for them on their travels. In this fixture as well, they’ve struggled on the road, yet they come here desperately in need of a win. Three straight losses in Serie A will not afford the visitors much confidence and they face a side on a strong run.
Flamengo are on a strong home run in Serie A, unbeaten in the last 10 matches since last season’s defeat to Fluminense. As both teams are coming from high-scoring games, we will back the same here. Our prediction for Flamengo v Sao Paulo is for Flamengo to win and over 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Flamengo SAO Paulo
| Flamengo vs SAO Paulo | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo wins | 1.73 | 1.45 | -16.2% |
| Draw | 3.5 | 4 | +14.3% |
| SAO Paulo wins | 4.5 | 8.5 | +88.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Flamengo is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 16.2% since opening
- The probability of this result was 57.8% and is now 69.0% (11.2%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Flamengo vs. SAO Paulo game!
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Try your luck on this year's Brasileirão Serie A! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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