Derby County vs Leeds Prediction & Betting Tips - FA Cup
England - FA Cup
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by Thobelani Moyo | in FA Cup Predictions
Derby County and Leeds United are set to renew acquaintances in the FA Cup for the first time since 1996. The two sides meet in the third round of this competition at Pride Park. Here's our match prediction.
Derby County are in 13th place in the EFL Championship standings with 35 points accumulated from 26 games and are six points behind the promotion playoff spot.
Their recent league game was against Wrexham. Unfortunately, they dropped three points in a 2-1 home defeat, marking their second defeat in three games.
The Rams start in the FA Cup third round and are seeking to progress beyond this stage after suffering elimination in the previous edition. It was the third time in four editions that they suffered an exit at this stage.
Leeds United are languishing in the bottom five in the Premier League table with 22 points accumulated from 21 games.
A 4-3 away defeat to Newcastle United last time out extended their winless run in the league to four matches. Before that result, though, they had been on a seven-match unbeaten run.
The Whites should fancy their chances of returning to the win column as they face Derby County in the FA Cup third round. The visiting team have won six of their last eight matches against this opponent across all competitions (D1, L1).
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The Best Betting Odds for Derby County v Leeds Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.75 | 4.1 | 1.51 |
|
|
5.5 | 4 | 1.57 |
|
|
5.5 | 3.75 | 1.55 |
|
|
5.5 | 4 | 1.57 |
|
|
5.25 | 4 | 1.57 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Derby County and Leeds?
Our prediction for the Derby County vs Leeds match is: Leeds wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/01/2026 between Derby County and Leeds in FA Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 27.23% for a win of Derby County against Leeds with odds of 5.8 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Derby County vs Leeds is 37.11% with odds of 4.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.66% chance ⭐ for a win of Leeds vs Derby County with odds of 1.78 at 888Starz.
Derby County - Leeds Prediction and Best Odds:
| Derby County Leeds Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 37.11% | 4.4 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.67% | 1.92 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 80.42% | 1.91 at Bet365 |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 19.56% | 6.5 at Betfair |
Derby County vs Leeds Form
Derby County and Leeds Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
15 Dec 2025 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
10 Dec 2025 - Championship
6 Dec 2025 - Championship
22 Nov 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
15 Dec 2025 - Championship
29 Nov 2025 - Championship
25 Nov 2025 - Championship
8 Nov 2025 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Dec 2025 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - Premier League
20 Dec 2025 - Premier League
6 Dec 2025 - Premier League
3 Dec 2025 - Premier League
23 Nov 2025 - Premier League
24 Oct 2025 - Premier League
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Jan 2026 - Premier League
1 Jan 2026 - Premier League
28 Dec 2025 - Premier League
14 Dec 2025 - Premier League
29 Nov 2025 - Premier League
9 Nov 2025 - Premier League
Derby County vs Leeds Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
17 %
67 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Dec 2024 - Championship
7 Dec 2024 - Championship
19 Jul 2020 - Championship
21 Sept 2019 - Championship
15 May 2019 - Championship
11 May 2019 - Championship
Players list
J. Widell Zetterstrom
DefenderC. Forsyth
S. Langas
D. Batth
MidfielderD. Ozoh
J. Ward
O. Eames
E. Adams
ForwardP. Agyemang
R. Brewster
B. Brereton
K. Darlow
DefenderE. Ampadu
J. Bijol
J. Justin
MidfielderS. Longstaff
A. Tanaka
J. Harrison
ForwardA. Stach
S. Byram
L. Nmecha
B. Aaronson
Substitutes
R. O'Donnell
DefenderC. Nelson
C. Elder
MidfielderO. Eames
E. Adams
D. Ozoh
P. Agyemang
A. Weimann
R. Brewster
L. Perri
DefenderS. Byram
P. Struijk
J. Justin
S. Longstaff
S. Chambers
B. Aaronson
A. Stach
D. Calvert-Lewin
Most goals and assists
Derby County
Leeds
C. Morris
(10 Goals)
D. Calvert-Lewin
(9 Goals)
J. Ward
(7 Assists)
B. Aaronson
(3 Assists)
Derby County - Leeds Key Points
- Derby County have won just one of their last five home matches.
- Leeds United have won their last three matches against Derby County.
- Derby County have lost two of their last three matches.
- Leeds United have won their last four away matches against Derby County.
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Our Derby County vs Leeds Prediction
This is the fifth meeting between these two sides in the FA Cup. Derby have had their backs against the wall in this fixture. Besides losing six of their last eight matches, they've suffered four consecutive home defeats against Leeds United.
Leeds have struggled for decent results lately, especially on the road, where they are winless in their last eight matches. They should be able to put an end to that run this Sunday as they take on a side they've eliminated in each of their last four FA Cup ties. Our Derby County vs Leeds United prediction: Leeds wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Derby County Leeds
| Derby County vs Leeds | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County wins | 3.75 | 5.75 | +53.3% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 4.1 | +20.6% |
| Leeds wins | 1.86 | 1.51 | -18.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 20.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 29.4% and is now 24.4% (-5.0%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Derby County vs. Leeds game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Derby County and Leeds when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on FA Cup!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
