Derby County vs Birmingham Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Championship Predictions
In a match between two teams just outside the top six spots in the Championship, matchday 39 gives Derby a chance to move closer with a win over travel-weary Birmingham. This match on Saturday between the eighth-placed Rams and the tenth-placed Blues comes with our prediction of a home win.
With 57 points ahead of this round (W16, D9, L13), Derby are three points adrift of the playoff spots; Birmingham have 53 points (W14, D11, L13) but still have an outside chance of moving into the top six places.
Derby edged Portsmouth 1-0 away from home on Monday to record their third win in the last four league games (L1). With seven wins and four defeats from their last 12 Championship matches, the Rams are staying alive in the play-off race.
Key to their hopes is their home form, as Derby have won their last three home league games in a row.
Birmingham dropped points in a 1-1 home draw against Sheffield United last weekend, which meant they had just one win from their last five league games (D1, L3). A defeat here could hamper their outside chances of qualifying for the playoffs.
Worryingly for the visitors, they have lost their last two away league games without scoring. That made it eight defeats in their last 13 Championship trips.
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Derby County v Birmingham Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.75 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
|
|
2.69 | 3.22 | 2.56 |
|
|
2.82 | 3.18 | 2.48 |
|
|
2.65 | 3.3 | 2.5 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.3 | 2.48 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Derby County and Birmingham?
Our prediction for the Derby County vs Birmingham match is: Derby County wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/03/2026 between Derby County and Birmingham in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 35.04% for a win of Derby County against Birmingham with odds of 2.82 at Betwinner.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Derby County vs Birmingham is 23.4% with odds of 3.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.55% chance ⭐ for a win of Birmingham vs Derby County with odds of 2.6 at Tonybet.
Derby County - Birmingham Prediction and Best Odds:
| Derby County Birmingham Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham wins | 41.55% | 2.6 at Tonybet |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.91 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 60% | |
| Half-time : Derby County / Full-time : Birmingham | 15.66% | 29 at LSbet |
Derby County vs Birmingham Form
Derby County and Birmingham's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
|
10
|
64 | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | +1 |
Derby County and Birmingham Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Mar 2026 - Championship
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
23 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Mar 2026 - Championship
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
30 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Championship
11 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
2 Mar 2026 - Championship
25 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Championship
11 Mar 2026 - Championship
2 Mar 2026 - Championship
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
10 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
25 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
31 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
Derby County vs Birmingham Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
50 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
30 Jan 2022 - Championship
10 Sept 2021 - Championship
24 Apr 2021 - Championship
19 Apr 2019 - Championship
27 Dec 2016 - Championship
Derby County against Birmingham Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Thompson
DefenderR. Canoville
I. Gordon
C. Forsyth
MidfielderO. Fraulo
D. Ozoh
C. Allen
ForwardJ. Banel
C. Morris
R. Allsop
DefenderP. Neumann
MidfielderT. Doyle
J. Solis
B. Osayi-Samuel
P. Roberts
ForwardC. Vicente
A. Priske
K. Furuhashi
Missing players
L. Buchanan
Most goals and assists
Derby County
Birmingham
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
J. Stansfield
(10 Goals)
, 
M. Ducksch
(10 Goals)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
J. Stansfield
(7 Assists)
Derby County - Birmingham Key Points
- Derby won three of their last four Championship games.
- At home, Derby won their last three Championship matches.
- Birmingham were beaten in three of their last five Championship games.
- Birmingham lost eight of their last 13 away Championship matches.
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Our Derby County vs Birmingham Prediction
Both these sides harbour ambitions of breaking into the Championship play-off spots, so this match could be crucial in that aspect. Derby arrive into this match with three wins from their last four league games and are looking set to make a late dash. They have also won their last three at home, so the Rams have momentum in their corner. The Blues are four points further behind in the top six race and have lost their last two league trips without scoring.
Derby could edge this contest, and our Derby County vs Birmingham prediction is Derby County wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Derby County Birmingham
| Derby County vs Birmingham | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County wins | 2.85 | 2.82 | -1.1% |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.4 | +4.9% |
| Birmingham wins | 2.45 | 2.6 | +6.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Birmingham is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.8% and is now 38.5% (-2.4%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Derby County vs. Birmingham game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Derby County and Birmingham when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Championship!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
