Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Italian Open
ATP - ATP Italian Open
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Italian Open Predictions
Mariano Navone has already won one ATP Tour clay court title this year. He begins his Italian Open campaign with a first round match against fellow unseeded player Denis Shapovalov. Shapovalov has struggled this year and that's why we are favoring Navone in our match prediction.
For the winner of this match, there's a second round meeting with fourth-seeded Felx Auger-Aliassime.
It was in Bucharest that Mariano Navone won his first ATP Tour singles title. That followed a hard court Challenger Tour title earlier in the year. A return to that kind of form is needed by the 25-year-old as he has failed to make it past round two in his other six clay court tournaments this year.
Overall, Navone has won eight of his 14 clay court matches and is 44th in the live rankings, seven below his opponent.
Denis Shapovalov has a 2-3 record on clay this year. His best run on clay in 2026 has come in Munich where he reached the quarter-finals. His most recent tournament was in Madrid, losing in round two to Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and winning just three games.
Shapovalov has already equaled the number of clay court wins he had last year. 2025 saw him win just two of his seven matches.
We tip Navone to win this match.
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Denis Shapovalov v Mariano Navone Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
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2.57 | 1.51 |
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2.66 | 1.48 |
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2.63 | 1.5 |
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2.48 | 1.49 |
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2.48 | 1.49 |
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Who will win the Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone match is: Mariano Navone wins.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone game on 07/05/2026 of the current ATP Italian Open season:
- Denis Shapovalov has a 31.55% chance to win against Mariano Navone according to Betwinner ⭐ with the odds of 2.66.
- Mariano Navone has a 68.45% probability of winning facing Denis Shapovalov ⭐ with odds of 1.52 at Shangrila.
Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Denis Shapovalov has a 31.55 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Denis Shapovalov | 31.55 % |
| Mariano Navone | 68.45 % |
Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone Form
Denis Shapovalov and Mariano Navone Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
25 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
17 Apr 2026 - ATP Munich Open
16 Apr 2026 - ATP Munich Open
14 Apr 2026 - ATP Munich Open
6 Apr 2026 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
19 Mar 2026 - ATP Miami
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
25 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
23 Apr 2026 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open
14 Apr 2026 - ATP Barcelona
5 Apr 2026 - ATP BCR Open Romania
4 Apr 2026 - ATP BCR Open Romania
3 Apr 2026 - ATP BCR Open Romania
Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
1 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Denis Shapovalov - Mariano Navone Key Points
- Navone is 16 places above Shapovalov in the ATP Live Race.
- Navone has won one ATP Tour clay court title this year.
- Shapovalov has only won four of his last 12 matches on this surface
- Shapovalov only won three games in his last clay court defeat.
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Our Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone Prediction
Mariano Navone has won a couple of tournaments this year, one on the ATP Tour. His success in Bucharest showed his talent on clay but he has struggled to build on that in recent weeks. This looks a good opportunity to get a win and go into round two.
Not since 2021 has Denis Shapovalov won more matches than he's lost in a clay court season. He reached the last eight in Munich this year but put in a poor display in Madrid in his most recent match. Our Denis Shapovalov v Mariano Navone prediction is Mariano Navone wins.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
