Europe - Champions League
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by Thobelani Moyo | in Champions League Predictions
Chelsea and Ajax are set to lock horns at Stamford Bridge on matchday three in the UEFA Champions League. Chelsea are in 18th place in the league phase standings, while Ajax are in 35th place. Check out our match prediction.
Chelsea are back in the UEFA Champions League for the first time since the 2022-23 season. The Blues, who won the crown back in 2021, are out to reaffirm their status among Europe's elite. It has been a promising start to the competition, and victory here could see them record their second win in three games.
Ajax have yet to register a win, let alone a draw, after two games, meaning they head into this clash with zero points to their name in the league phase standings. The Amsterdammers will view this fixture as an opportunity to record a favorable outcome. However, that will be easier said than done considering they've gone two matches without a win against the London-based outfit in the UEFA Champions League.
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The Best Betting Odds for Chelsea v Ajax Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.3 | 5.75 | 9 |
|
|
1.33 | 5.5 | 9 |
|
|
1.3 | 5.5 | 8.5 |
|
|
1.38 | 5.25 | 7 |
|
|
1.29 | 6.1 | 9 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Chelsea and Ajax?
Our prediction for the Chelsea vs Ajax match is: Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/10/2025 between Chelsea and Ajax in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 56.86% for a win of Chelsea against Ajax with odds of 1.38 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Chelsea vs Ajax is 32.97% with odds of 6.25 at Betobet.
- Our prediction model gives a 10.17% chance ⭐ for a win of Ajax vs Chelsea with odds of 10.4 at 22bet.
Chelsea - Ajax Prediction and Best Odds:
| Chelsea Ajax Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 56.86% | 1.38 at Betway |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.23% | 1.54 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 56.25% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Chelsea/Chelsea | 30.97% | 1.95 at Bet365 |
Chelsea vs Ajax Form
Chelsea and Ajax's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
7
|
10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
|
36
|
0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -15 |
Chelsea and Ajax Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
23 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Premier League
30 Aug 2025 - Premier League
17 Aug 2025 - Premier League
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
23 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
20 Sept 2025 - Premier League
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - Premier League
22 Aug 2025 - Premier League
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
4 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
21 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
27 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
24 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
10 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
21 Sept 2025 - Eredivisie
30 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
17 Aug 2025 - Eredivisie
27 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Chelsea vs Ajax Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
5 Nov 2019 - Champions League
23 Oct 2019 - Champions League
Chelsea - Ajax: Form Analysis
Chelsea are in good spirits after seeing off the threat of Nottingham Forest in the latest Premier League outing. It was not an impressive start to the first half, with few chances being created and producing 0.37 expected goals (xG).
However, the second half turned out to be different and more convincing as the team found its rhythm. Goals from Josh Acheampong, Pedro Neto, and Reece James saw the team win 3-0 on the road.
That result marked the Blues' third consecutive win across all competitions. Among those wins was a 1-0 home victory against Benfica on matchday two of the UEFA Champions League. This was consolation for their 3-1 away defeat to Bayern Munich.
Ajax have misplaced their shooting boots, going two consecutive UCL games without scoring.
Ajax's form has been erratic, winning just one of their last six matches across all competitions, including a three-match winless run.
The Amsterdammers' recent setback came against AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie, suffering a 2-0 away defeat. Heading into this clash, John Heitinga's men are out to restore their confidence.
However, it has not been a great showing from them in the UEFA Champions League. They've recorded two consecutive defeats in the league phase, with their most recent being a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Marseille.
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Chelsea against Ajax Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
L. Colwill
B. Badiashile
M. Gusto
MidfielderD. Essugo
C. Palmer
ForwardL. Delap
Joao Pedro
O. Wijndal
MidfielderB. Van den Boomen
ForwardK. Dolberg
S. Berghuis
Chelsea & Ajax Squad Analysis
Chelsea come into this match short-handed, with some of their key players not available for selection due to injury. Cole Palmer, Liam Delap, Benoit Badiashile, Enzo Fernandez, Dario Essugo, Levi Colwill, Raheem Sterling, and Gabriel Slonina will all be unavailable.
After coming on as a substitute in Saturday's league game against Nottingham Forest, Estevao will feature in the starting lineup this time around, replacing Andrey Santos in midfield.
Joao Pedro won't be available here after his red card against Benfica on matchday two of the UEFA Champions League. That said, Pedro Neto will lead the attack this Wednesday. The 25-year-old will be hoping to score his first goal in this tournament.
Joao Pedro is suspended and won't be available for selection.
Ajax are struggling to score goals in the UEFA Champions League, and that is a concern as it may hurt their chances of a favorable outcome in this clash.
The Amsterdammers have relied on Wout Weghorst to score the goals, but the Netherlands international has yet to find his creative spark. However, the 33-year-old has been in decent form with five goals and one assist in nine appearances this season.
Four players will be unavailable for selection due to injury, including Kasper Dolberg, Steven Berghuis, Don-Angelo Konadu, and Branco van den Boomen.
Most goals and assists
Chelsea
Ajax
Estevao
(5 Goals)
, 
E. Fernandez
(5 Goals)
, 
P. Neto
(5 Goals)
W. Weghorst
(7 Goals)
R. James
(8 Assists)
M. Godts
(5 Assists)
Chelsea - Ajax Key Points
- Chelsea have won each of their last three matches across all competitions.
- Ajax are currently on a two-match losing streak in the UEFA Champions League.
- Chelsea have seen each of their last three matches end with under 3.5 goals.
- Ajax are winless in their last five away matches across all competitions.
- Chelsea are currently on a two-match winning streak at home across all competitions.
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Our Chelsea vs Ajax Prediction
Chelsea are the in-form side heading into this clash, and there's no doubt about their victory in this one. They have won three consecutive matches, with two of those outings being recorded at home. It must be mentioned that each of those matches produced under 3.5 goals.
Ajax have lost two consecutive matches in the UEFA Champions League without finding the net. It's evident that they are lacking in confidence and could struggle against a side they've failed to defeat in two matches in this tournament. Our Chelsea vs. Ajax prediction: Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals.
Chelsea vs Ajax - Other Interesting Predictions
Half-time Result - Chelsea
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Chelsea Ajax
| Chelsea vs Ajax | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea wins | 1.33 | 1.3 | -2.3% |
| Draw | 5 | 5.75 | +15.0% |
| Ajax wins | 8 | 9 | +12.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Chelsea is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 75.2% and is now 76.9% (1.7%)
Win free tickets to Chelsea vs. Ajax at Bet365!
With the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 season starts, bet365 offers free tickets for their users, including Chelsea vs. Ajax match!
To be in with a chance of winning tickets to any of the UEFA Champions League matchdays throughout the 2025/26 season, all fans must do is enter into the free-to-enter weekly ticket draws on the bet365 website or app*.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
