Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia Lisbon Prediction & Betting Tips - Liga Portugal
Portugal - Liga Portugal
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by Ian John | in Liga Portugal Predictions
Estrela Amadora take on Casa Pia in Friday night action from the Portuguese Primeira Liga this week, with both teams struggling in the league. Joao Nuno's Tricolores are without a win in five while Alvaro Pacheco's Os Gansos have found it hard to improve on last season's ninth place finish. Two struggling teams will certainly make for a tricky match prediction for this game.
With just two teams dropping out of the Primeira Division each season, both Estrela Amadora and Casa Pia find themselves above the drop zone, but not comfortably so. Estrela Amadora lie 13th with 25 points from 26 games, seven clear of the drop zone. Casa Pia are 15th, with 24 points from their 25 games, five points clear of the bottom two.
Both teams recent struggles are clesrly evident in their recent form. Estrela's recent run started with a 2-0 home defeat by Tondela, followed by a 0-0 draw away to AVS. They then were held 2-2 at home by Gil Vicente and last week, went down to a 2-1 defeat away to Rio Ave.
Casa Pia's recent results are slightly better. Their last four games started with a 3-2 victory at home over Arouca, but was then followed by a 2-0 defeat away to Famalicao. They then picked up a point in each of their next two games, drawing 1-1 at home to Moreirense and then 0-0 away at Estoril Praia.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Estrela Amadora v Casa Pia Lisbon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.47 | 3.1 | 3 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.04 | 3.08 |
|
|
2.5 | 3.04 | 3.08 |
|
|
2.57 | 3 | 2.85 |
|
|
2.44 | 2.98 | 3.05 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Estrela Amadora and Casa Pia Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia Lisbon match is: A Draw.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 20/03/2026 between Estrela Amadora and Casa Pia Lisbon in Liga Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 33.71% for a win of Estrela Amadora against Casa Pia Lisbon with odds of 2.65 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia Lisbon is 34.38% with odds of 3.25 at LSbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 31.91% chance ⭐ for a win of Casa Pia Lisbon vs Estrela Amadora with odds of 3.1 at Tonybet.
Estrela Amadora - Casa Pia Lisbon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Estrela Amadora Casa Pia Lisbon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 34.38% | 3.25 at LSbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.39% | 2.3 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score: No | 59.58% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 17.81% | 4.5 at Bet365 |
Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia Lisbon Form
Estrela Amadora and Casa Pia Lisbon's standings in the Liga Portugal
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
15
|
30 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -18 |
|
16
|
30 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -26 |
Estrela Amadora and Casa Pia Lisbon Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
8 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
19 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
31 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
25 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
27 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
1 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
8 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
17 Dec 2025 - Taca de Portugal
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
8 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
16 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
4 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
60 %
0 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Nov 2025 - Liga Portugal
9 Feb 2025 - Liga Portugal
31 Aug 2024 - Liga Portugal
8 Mar 2024 - Liga Portugal
8 Oct 2023 - Liga Portugal
Estrela Amadora against Casa Pia Lisbon Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Substitutes
D. Grilo
DefenderY. Kalley
Otavio
T. Moustier
A. Sola
L. Antonetti
S. Van Hooijdonk
J. Meirele
J. Cabral
I. Mandic
DefenderJ. Fonte
Rosas
MidfielderI. Mohamed
K. Nsona
J. Marques
C. Mendes Vicente
T. Morais
K. Osundina
Missing players
R. Batista
Most goals and assists
Estrela Amadora
Casa Pia Lisbon
Cassiano
(6 Goals)
, 
G. Larrazabal
(6 Goals)
A. Marcus
(5 Assists)
J. Livolant
(7 Assists)
Estrela Amadora - Casa Pia Lisbon Key Points
- Estrele Amadora have drawn three of their last six home games (W1, L2)
- Casa Pia have drawn three of their last five league games.
- Estrela have drawn four of their last ten league games (L5, W1).
- These two teams have drawn the most games in the league this season (Estrela 10, Casa Pia 9).
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Our Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia Lisbon Prediction
Our prediction for the Estrela Amadora vs. Casa Pia Primeira Liga match is: A Draw.
Upon reviewing the data for this match, the only thing that was consistent for both these teams was their inconsistency, a feature which has dogged their results all season. Neither are in strong winning form and both have drawn a high number of games, including recent matches. As such, with little evidence to support either side picking up a win in this game, the best betting option is to take the value bet and back the draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Estrela Amadora Casa Pia Lisbon
| Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia Lisbon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela Amadora wins | 2.62 | 2.65 | +1.1% |
| Draw | 3.05 | 3.25 | +6.6% |
| Casa Pia Lisbon wins | 2.95 | 3.1 | +5.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 6.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 32.8% and is now 30.8% (-2.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
