Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave Prediction & Betting Tips - Liga Portugal
Portugal - Liga Portugal
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Liga Portugal Predictions
Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave Casa Pia have one final shot at escaping the relegation playoff zone in their final day match against Rio Ave. After just taking a potentially season-defining win over Vitoria last week, we expect Casa Pia two games in a row for just the first time this season for a chance at safety. Read our Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave match prediction below.
The Geese (16th) breathed life into their survival hopes on Monday with a gutsy 1-0 away win against Vitória SC, thanks to an 86th-minute strike by Gaizka Larrazabal. They are now level on 29 points with Estrela Amadora.
Because Estrela faces a tough trip to Braga, Casa Pia knows that a win here (combined with an Estrela slip-up) could pull them out of the bottom three entirely on the final day. Rio Ave (13th) arrives with much less pressure, having already secured their safety with 35 points.
While they won the reverse fixture 3-1 back in January, their motivation has visibly dipped since mathematically avoiding the drop. With only one win in their last five league outings, Rio Ave may struggle to match the intensity of a Casa Pia side fighting for their top-flight lives in front of a desperate home crowd.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Casa Pia Lisbon v Rio Ave Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.72 | 3.75 | 4.7 |
|
|
1.9 | 3.48 | 4.18 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.88 | 4.84 |
|
|
1.66 | 3.6 | 5 |
|
|
1.82 | 3.45 | 4.2 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Casa Pia Lisbon and Rio Ave?
Our prediction for the Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave match is: Casa Pia Lisbon wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/05/2026 between Casa Pia Lisbon and Rio Ave in Liga Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.68% for a win of Casa Pia Lisbon against Rio Ave with odds of 1.91 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave is 25.06% with odds of 4.2 at Shangrila.
- Our prediction model gives a 38.26% chance ⭐ for a win of Rio Ave vs Casa Pia Lisbon with odds of 5 at Bet365.
Casa Pia Lisbon - Rio Ave Prediction and Best Odds:
| Casa Pia Lisbon Rio Ave Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave wins | 38.26% | 5 at Bet365 |
| Under 2.5 | 60.23% | 1.88 at Betwinner |
| Both Team To Score: No | 56.67% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Rio Ave | 20.2% | 10.5 at LSbet |
Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave Form
Casa Pia Lisbon and Rio Ave's standings in the Liga Portugal
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
12
|
36 | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | -22 |
|
16
|
30 | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -26 |
Casa Pia Lisbon and Rio Ave Last Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
27 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
18 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
12 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
18 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
1 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
27 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
12 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
23 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
25 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
17 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
11 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
4 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
17 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
4 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
15 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
1 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
11 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
22 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
8 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
29 Mar 2025 - Liga Portugal
12 Jan 2025 - Taca de Portugal
2 Nov 2024 - Liga Portugal
11 Feb 2024 - Liga Portugal
2 Sept 2023 - Liga Portugal
Casa Pia Lisbon against Rio Ave Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
I. Mandic
DefenderJ. Fonte
A. Geraldes
A. Conte
R. Brito
I. Mohamed
K. Osundina
J. Livolant
C. Mendes
C. Miszta
DefenderG. Liavas
L. Buta
Olinho
J. Lomboto
A. Papakanellos
K. Zoabi
R. Lobato
T. Medina
Missing players
R. Batista
F. Petrasso
MidfielderB. Aguilera
R. Guilherme
Most goals and assists
Casa Pia Lisbon
Rio Ave
Cassiano
(6 Goals)
, 
G. Larrazabal
(6 Goals)
Clayton
(10 Goals)
J. Livolant
(7 Assists)
Clayton
(6 Assists)
Casa Pia Lisbon - Rio Ave Key Points
- Casa Pia enters on the back of a massive 1-0 win over 8th-placed Vitória SC.
- Rio Ave has only won eight games all season and has little to play for in 13th place.
- Rio Ave have also lost two of their last three league games.
- Casa Pia have won two of their last three home encounters against Rio Ave.
- Additionally, Rio Ave has also lost five of its last eight away games in the league.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave Prediction
The stakes are entirely one-sided in this matchup. While Rio Ave is technically higher in the table, Casa Pia’s desperation is a powerful equalizer. Following their performance last week, the home side has the momentum and the defensive structure to stifle a Rio Ave team that is already mentally on vacation.
With Casa Pia playing for their lives and Rio Ave safe, the value lies in the home side’s superior motivation. We expect a narrow, hard-fought victory for the hosts to potentially climb out of the danger zone. Hence, our Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave prediction is that Casa Pia Lisbon wins.Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Casa Pia Lisbon Rio Ave
| Casa Pia Lisbon vs Rio Ave | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia Lisbon wins | 1.67 | 1.91 | +14.4% |
| Draw | 3.8 | 4.2 | +10.5% |
| Rio Ave wins | 4.75 | 5 | +5.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Rio Ave is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 5.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 21.1% and is now 20.0% (-1.1%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Casa Pia Lisbon vs. Rio Ave game
You can get yourself up to €100 in matched bets for the battle between Casa Pia Lisbon and Rio Ave when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Liga Portugal!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
