ATP - ATP Japan Open
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Top seed Carlos Alcaraz will face off with the unseeded Sebastian Baez in the opening round of the Japan Open. This is their first meeting in three years. Read on to find our prediction for this match.
Carlos Alcaraz arrives in Tokyo as the overwhelming favourite to win this year’s championship. The Spaniard has been in incredible form this season and has won 62 of 69 fixtures.
This red-hot form has seen him retake the ATP’s world number one title and lead him to seven titles, his best-ever haul in a season. Among the 22-year-olds' titles this season are two majors and three Masters.
Alcaraz, who participated recently in the Laver Cup, won both times he was previously paired up against Baez.
While Alcaraz has been the form player this season, Sebastian Baez has found the going tough. The seven-time tour champion has compiled a shaky 19-21 record, with only two of his victories coming on hard courts.
A clay court specialist, Baez had a strong start to the year and enjoyed the Golden Swing. He retained his title in Rio, but not in Chile, where he finished as runner-up.
A finalist in Bucharest as well, Baez arrives in Tokyo having won just five times in his last 20 outings. The world number 41 hasn't competed since a first-round loss at the US Open.
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The Best Betting Odds for Carlos Alcaraz v Sebastian Baez Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.02 | 19 |
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1.02 | 13 |
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1.01 | 19 |
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1.01 | 21 |
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1.01 | 17 |
|
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Who will win the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez match is: Alcaraz to win in three sets.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez game on 23/09/2025 of the current ATP Japan Open season:
- Carlos Alcaraz has a 87.3% chance to win against Sebastian Baez according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 1.02.
- Sebastian Baez has a 12.7% probability of winning facing Carlos Alcaraz ⭐ with odds of 21 at Ladbrokes.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Carlos Alcaraz has a 87.3 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 87.3 % |
| Sebastian Baez | 12.7 % |
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
21 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
20 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
7 Sep 2025 - ATP US Open
5 Sep 2025 - ATP US Open
2 Sep 2025 - ATP US Open
31 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
25 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
20 Aug 2025 - ATP Winston-Salem Open
19 Aug 2025 - ATP Winston-Salem Open
9 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
7 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
23 Jul 2025 - ATP Kitzbuhel Open
Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
30 Aug 2022 - ATP US Open
Carlos Alcaraz - Sebastian Baez Key Points
- Alcaraz has won twice previously against Baez.
- Baez has lost seven of nine hard-court duels this year.
- Alcaraz has won 23 times on hard courts this season.
- Seven of Baez’s last 10 fixtures have ended in defeat.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Prediction
Our prediction for Carlos Alcaraz v Sebastian Baez is for Alcaraz to win in three sets. Alcaraz has never lost against Baez; he defeated the Argentine both times they have met. Though they haven’t played each other in three years, his incredible form should allow him to register another victory.
Alcaraz has been exceptional this year and has won over 60 matches. Baez, on the other hand, has lacked consistency and has found it difficult to win, especially on hard courts. We, however, have him stealing a set as Alcaraz has had little time to prepare after his last tournament.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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