Bristol City vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Ian John | in Championship Predictions
Friday night sees a crucial game in the Championship as two teams, Bristol City and Derby County meet with just one point separating the two in the table. Both the Robins and the Rams have their eyes on the playoffs, but in what is oproving to be an ultra-competitive race for those places in the table, three points here would be hugely beneficial. Here's our prediction for the match.
Positions separate the two teams far more than points in the current Championship table. Home team Bristol City lie just outside the playoff spots in seventh with 43 points from 29 games, Derby are a seemingly distant 11th in the table, but have amassed 42 points from their 29 games. So a win for the Rams would move them above the Robins and into the playoff spots themselves.
Current form could help inform the selection for this game. It is fair to say Bristol City's recent form is mixed, with a 0-0 draw away to Oxford followed by a 2-0 defeat away to Ipswich Town, but at the weekend, the Robins earned a 2-0 win over bottom club Sheffield Wednesday.
Derby's recent form is slightly more impressive than their opponents. They earned a superb 1-0 away win at fellow playoff contenders Preston and followed that with a another away win, this time a 2-1 win at Charlton. The Rams played Friday night at home to West Brom and may be disappointed in achieving a 1-1 draw against the struggling Baggies.
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Bristol City v Derby County Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.02 | 3.45 | 3.65 |
|
|
1.94 | 3.56 | 3.88 |
|
|
2.19 | 3.28 | 3.27 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Bristol City and Derby County?
Our prediction for the Bristol City vs Derby County match is: Derby wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/01/2026 between Bristol City and Derby County in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 46.31% for a win of Bristol City against Derby County with odds of 2.22 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Bristol City vs Derby County is 21.18% with odds of 3.56 at Melbet.
- Our prediction model gives a 32.51% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Bristol City with odds of 3.88 at Melbet.
Bristol City - Derby County Prediction and Best Odds:
| Bristol City Derby County Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City wins | 46.31% | 2.22 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.44% | 2.15 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score | 50.83% | |
| Half-time: Derby County / Full-time: Bristol City | 20.95% | 26 at LSbet |
Bristol City vs Derby County Form
Bristol City and Derby County's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
|
12
|
62 | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
Bristol City and Derby County Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jan 2026 - Championship
10 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
10 Dec 2025 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
13 Dec 2025 - Championship
29 Nov 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Jan 2026 - Championship
11 Jan 2026 - FA Cup
4 Jan 2026 - Championship
1 Jan 2026 - Championship
20 Dec 2025 - Championship
10 Dec 2025 - Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jan 2026 - Championship
17 Jan 2026 - Championship
29 Dec 2025 - Championship
26 Dec 2025 - Championship
15 Dec 2025 - Championship
29 Nov 2025 - Championship
Bristol City vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
40 %
20 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
22 Aug 2025 - Championship
4 Jan 2025 - Championship
31 Aug 2024 - Championship
12 Feb 2020 - Championship
27 Apr 2019 - Championship
Bristol City against Derby County Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Lumley
DefenderN. Borges
S. Naylor
MidfielderJ. Williams
G. Earthy
L. Pecover
S. Morsy
D. Burgzorg
S. Armstrong
J. Vickers
DefenderC. Forsyth
D. Batth
MidfielderO. Eames
O. Fraulo
L. Thompson
ForwardJ. Banel
L. Salvesen
A. Weimann
Missing players
L. McNally
Most goals and assists
Bristol City
Derby County
S. Twine
(11 Goals)
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
R. McCrorie
(6 Assists)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
Bristol City - Derby County Key Points
- Bristol City have won just one of their last five league games (D2, L2).
- Derby have won three of their last five away games (D1, L1).
- City have lost five of their last 11 league games (W4, D2).
- Derby have lost just two of the last ten games they have played in the league (W4, D4)
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Our Bristol City vs Derby County Prediction
Our prediction for the Bristol City vs. Derby County Championship match is: Derby wins.
Bristol City's indifferent form of late makes backing them to win a game, especially against a close rival, tough. That is exacerbated when facing a Derby team, who have a very good away record this season (the third best in the Championship) and who have won both their last two games on the road. It will be close and we almost went for the draw, but in the end, we've backed Derby for the win.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Bristol City Derby County
| Bristol City vs Derby County | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City wins | 1.98 | 2.22 | +12.1% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.56 | +9.5% |
| Derby County wins | 3.9 | 3.88 | -0.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Bristol City is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 12.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.5% and is now 45.0% (-5.5%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
