PBA Philippine Cup Predictions & Betting tips

PBA Philippine Cup 2025 Presentation and Predictions

2024-25 marks the 49th season in the PBA and sees the league return to the traditional three conference format. Similar to how South American football competitions work with the Apertura and Clausura structure, a normal league season in the Philippine Basketball Association is divided into three separate competitions, called “conferences'', with each winner considered to be league champions at the end of the season. With the East Asia Super League and Basketball Champions League Asia coming up, the PBA decided to reverse the order of the conferences, resulting in the Philippine Cup being the final in the 2024-25 season.

Unlike the other conferences, which allow teams to sign import players, the Philippine Cup only permits teams to field Filipino players. This makes this competition in particular a big draw as it is one of great pride for the fans. The Philippine Cup kicked off on April 4th and will conclude with the finals some time in July. We're already into the playoffs, but there's still plenty of action still remaining! Keep reading below to see our thoughts as well as some invaluable betting tips and strategies to implement when making your next PBA predictions!

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2024 PBA Prediction: Who Will Win the 2024 PBA Philippine Cup?

TNT are chasing an elusive Grand Slam after winning both the Governors' Cup and the Commissioner's Cup. Should they pull it off, it would mark the first time a team has won all three conferences in the same season since the 2013-14 San Miguel Beermen. They'll be put to the test however, as a likely matchup against either San Miguel or Barangay Ginebra awaits in the Finals should they be able to make it past Rain or Shine in the semis. 

For our money, it's tough to go against San Miguel in this tournament. They've dominated the Philippine Cup over the years, winning eight of the last 10 editions. This is in large part due to arguably the greatest Filipino player ever in June Mar Fajardo. Despite his 35 years of age, Fajardo is still a force inside. He's averaging 18.0 points and 13.3 rebounds during this conference while shooting an efficient 63% from the field.

After being beaten out to the title in 2023-24 season, we expect a strong response from the Beermen. Our 2024-25 Philippine Cup prediction: San Miguel Beermen champions!

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Who Will Win the 2024 Philippine Cup Best Player of the Conference Award?

June Mar Fajardo is likely going to go down as the greatest PBA player ever, and for good reason. The 35-year-old is still playing at an elite level and most recently captured his eighth MVP award for the 2024 season as well as his 11th Best Player of the Conference award for the 2024-25 Governors' Cup.

Fajardo has won the last two Best Player of the Conference awards for the Philippine Cup and he's the frontrunner to win this third straight after another stellar season.

Therefore, our 2025 Philippine Cup Best Player of the Conference prediction: June Mar Fajardo!

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2024-25 Philippine Cup playoff predictions

With the quarter-finals of the 2024-25 Philippine Cup now in the books, we move on to the final four teams and the grueling action of the seven-game series! The big storyline will be around TNT and whether or not they can complete the elusive Grand Slam. Meanwhile, San Miguel Beermen will be looking for another Philippine Cup cap in their hat as they have been the dominant force in this competition over the years. Check out the matchups below:

• TNT vs Rain or Shine
• San Miguel Beermen vs Barangay Ginebra

Both TNT and Rain or Shine squeezed into the playoffs with identical 6-5 records. While TNT won't have import player Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, they still have a deadly duo in Roger Ray Pogoy and Calvin-John Oftana. With the unbelievable momentum they have behind them from the previous conference wins, we believe they'll advance to the Finals. The classic San Miguel vs Ginebra rivalry will write another chapter in the 2024-25 Philippine Cup playoffs. Both teams put together strong regular seasons, each finishing with 8-3 records. However, it was San Miguel that topped the standings thanks to their superior +160 point differential. While we're expecting this to be close, San Miguel are tough to go against in this competition with their strong Filipino base of players. Therefore, we believe the final will be between TNT and San Miguel Beermen!

 to impose their dominance over this competition 

Beginner’s Guide to How the Philippine Cup Works

The Philippine Cup is a single league format involving 12 teams. Each team plays each other only once in the regular season. The top eight teams then enter into the playoffs, where the top four seeds hold a “twice-to-beat” advantage. This means that they only need one win to advance to the semi-finals while the lower seed needs two wins. From the semi-finals on, teams play out best-of-seven playoff series.

Import players

As we mentioned earlier, teams are not permitted to contract import players. This means players such as: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (TNT), Justin Brownlee (Barangay Ginebra), Mike Watkins (NLEX) and Kadeem Jack (NorthPort) will not be able to participate. Naturally, this rule leaves an advantage to teams who possess a strong Filipino base of players.

Important Dates

Regular season: 4 April - 23 September 2024

Playoffs: 25 September - Late October (conclusion of Finals)

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How to Make Good Predictions on PBA Philippine Cup Games?

The PBA Philippine Cup regular season consists of only 11 games, meaning every single matchup has the potential for a playoff atmosphere with how little often seperates teams in the standings. Our experts at SportyTrader have gathered five key pieces of advice to keep in mind when making your PBA predictions:

• Situational spots and team news
• Take into account the form a team’s star
• Analyse detailed statistics 
• Take stock of a team's mental state
• Compare odds across bookmakers

Continue reading below for more information on each key point:

1. Situational spots and team news

Regardless of the sport or league that you are betting on, staying up to date on the latest injury news and updates is always of the upmost importance. This is especially true in a sport like basketball, where star players account for a significant amount of the offensive and defensive responsibilities. The complexion of a game can completely change should a team lose its dominant center in practice the day before a game, for example, as they'll have to adjust their game plan while the opposition will suddenly be presented with an opportunity to exploit a weakness.

Another piece of advice we can offer is to take note of where certain marquee matchups fall on the schedule. For example, Barangay Ginebra vs Magnolia, also known as the Manila Clasico, is considered to be the biggest rivalry in the league and is a highly anticipated matchup for both fans and players. The players might find it difficult to focus their attention on the game immediately preceding the rivalry clash, especially if they are going against a weaker team that they are expected to beat. This is often referred to as a "look-ahead spot". 

2. Take into account the form of a team’s star

As we briefly touched on in the previous section, key players in basketball often play a larger role in determining a team's success than other team sports such as football or baseball. This is in part down to there only being five players on the court at a time for each team. The influence a truly dominant player can exert in basketball is oftentimes more pronounced than other sports, especially if they excel at both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. While this is especially important in the conferences which allow for import players, such as the Governors' Cup, it certainly still applies to the Philippine Cup.

June Mar Fajardo is a perfect example in this respect. The 8-time PBA MVP commands the highest respect in the paint when he's on the floor. San Miguel look like a completely different team if he's injured or has to miss time. When analysing their games, you'll want to have a good understanding of how Fajardo has been playing. He is the type of player that opposing teams will have to dedicate a majority of their time in preparing for and will have teams devising full gameplans just to slow him down. When betting, you'll want to ensure these types of players are in good form both mentally and physically, as they will more often than not be the determining factor in outcome of the game.

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3. Analyse detailed statistics

It is also key that a bettor study the previous statistics of a PBA team before making a prediction involving them. There are plenty of advanced statistics to dig into, which can help provide a more clear picture of just how a team is performing. Of course, many will look at base-level stats such as points scored and points allowed. However, taking a look under the hood reveals useful information such as team pace (how many possessions a team has per 48 minutes), true shooting percentage, player-efficiency rating (PER), offensive and defensive rating among many others. The good news is that this information is widely available to be consumed! 

Live betting, or in-play betting, can be a great way to read the flow of a game and take advantage of some lopsided point spreads. Basketball is a game of runs and you’ll often see double digit leads be gained and lost over the course of a single match. A common situation that occurs is when the pre-match favourite falls behind early in the game. Often the live line will offer you great odds on the stronger team that is likely to soon go on their own scoring run. Looking for a way to both follow Philippine Cup games live while also having access to a number of detailed statistics? We've provided a convenient way to do just that so you can take advantage of those profitable betting lines! Head over to our PBA Philippine Cup Livescore page to see for yourself! 

4. Take stock of a team’s mental state

Gauging a team’s motivation can also be a useful tool that, at times, is not fully accounted for by betting lines. Situational spots often come up, especially as the playoffs approach, where one team might have more incentive than their opponent to win. A team already out of contention will find it hard to play with the same intensity as a team that is battling for the final qualification spot. Similarly, a team that has already secured their position might choose to rest players in preparation for the more important elimination game coming up.

As we stated in the previous section, basketball is a game of runs. This is also true for many players, who will experience hot and cold shooting streaks throughout a season. Some players are able to return to their baseline faster than others, who may experience a prolonged stretch of poor shooting. It's important to be aware of which teams and players might be going through these kind of streaks as it will help you make more accurate predictions. Luckily for us, all of that information is easily obtained through the available statistics!

5. Compare odds across bookmakers

Our final piece of advice is one of the simplest yet often one of the most overlooked: line shopping! This simply means getting the best available odds for your bet. To do this, it is important to register accounts with several online sportsbooks as it is quite common to find differing odds for the same bet.

A few points on a spread or a slightly improve moneyline price can often make the difference between a winning bet and a losing bet - in the long run these small edges add up. Additionally, you'll be able to take advantage of the litany of great welcome bonuses that are on offer at the different sportsbooks! SportyTrader makes it easy to compare odds, access new bookmakers and take advantage of bonus offers when signing up.

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What Not to Do For Your PBA Philippine Cup Predictions

To give yourself the best chance at improving your bottom line when it comes to betting on the PBA Philippine Cup, there are a few pitfalls you will want to avoid. Here are some examples of what you should be cautious of:

• Not assessing the situational spot of the teams
• Disregarding the mental state and performance of a team’s star player.
• Not accounting for a team’s home vs away performances.
• Chasing your losses (ex. Betting triple your normal amount to ‘make up for’ two previous losses).
• Not practicing proper bankroll management (you should have a fixed bet amount within your overall betting funds). 
• Not comparing bookmakers to find the best possible odds on the market for your bet.
• Betting strictly on a team’s name and reputation and not accounting for recent performance and form.
• Only looking at final scores of previous games and not digging deeper into the underlying statistics.
• Disregarding the betting odds and not understanding the implied probability behind them.
• Blindly betting on your favourite team.

More than a few beginner and experienced bettors have fallen victim to one or multiple of the above habits. If you can eliminate them from your betting process and approach each game with clear, rational analysis, you’ll greatly increase your chances of turning a profit!

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Philippine Cup Prediction: Statistics You Need to Know

To give you an idea of what to expect in the current 2024-25 PBA Philippine Cup, we've compiled some statistics from the previous edition. Note that these figures are taken from the 2023-24 Philippine Cup:

We are also comparing the previous edition of the Philippine Cup instead of the recently completed Commissioner’s Cup because the difference in eligibility rules for these two conferences are significant, which can lead to much different seasonal statistics:

• Overall scoring average (per team): 97.2
• Three-point shooting efficiency per team (average): 32.3%
• Free throw efficiency per team: 71.2%
• Average total rebounds per game (per team): 47.7
• Average assists per game (per team) : 20.9
• Average blocks per game (per team): 3.5
• Average turnovers per game (per team): 14.6
• Team with the highest scoring average: Rain or Shine (106.9)
• Team with the highest three-point shooting efficiency: San Miguel Beermen (35.5%)
• Team with the highest free throw efficiency: Terrafirma DYIP (78.5%)
• Team with the most rebounds per game: San Miguel Beermen (50.7)
• Team with the most assists per game: Rain or Shine (24.7)
• Team with the most blocks per game: Terrafirma DYIP (5.1)
• Team with the most fouls per game: Meralco Bolts (26.3)
• Team with the most turnovers per game: Phoenix Fuel Masters (16.7)

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In Short: How to Make the Right PBA Philippine Cup Predictions?

When making your Philippine Cup predictions, be sure to follow the tips and strategies laid out in this article. Remember to pay close attention to the star players on the teams involved, their overall form and the injuries and latest team news when making your next bets. Be sure to analyse the matchup by identifying key underlying statistics which should help guide you to a more accurate prediction of the game.

Aways be aware of the team's schedule and make a note of the marquee matchups on their fixture list. Lastly, be sure you are shopping around the different betting sites before placing your wager.  Don't hesitate to take advantage of our Philippine Cup odds comparator tool which will assist you in finding the best possible price for all of your PBA Philippine Cup bets! 

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Best odds: PBA Philippine Cup

Odds are not yet available for this competition.