Europe - Conference League
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by Thobelani Moyo | in Conference League Predictions
AZ Alkmaar will welcome Ilves to the AFAS Stadion in the second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round. In the first leg, AZ lost 4-3 and is now tasked with overturning a one-goal deficit. Can they secure an important win in front of their home crowd, or is this the end of their European football journey? Here's our match prediction.
AZ Alkmaar come into this match off the back of a 2-0 home defeat against Olympiacos in a club friendly game. They will be aiming for a morale-boosting outcome in the second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League qualifiers.
However, that's going to be another problem on its own when it comes to achieving such an outcome. In the first leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round, they suffered a narrow 4-3 away defeat against Ilves.
It was a bad day at the office, considering they were the dominant side in all aspects of the game. From controlling 66% ball possession to registering 23 shots at goal than their opponents' 14.
Ilves have one job to do heading into the return leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round, and that's to protect their one-goal advantage.
In the first leg against AZ Alkmaar, Ipa secured a 4-3 victory in front of their home crowd. Before this, they beat FF Jaro 1-0 away in the Veikkausliiga.
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The Best Betting Odds for AZ Alkmaar v Ilves Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.1 | 10 | 15 |
|
|
1.1 | 9 | 15 |
|
|
1.1 | 10 | 19 |
|
|
1.1 | 9 | 15 |
|
|
1.1 | 10 | 17 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between AZ Alkmaar and Ilves?
Our prediction for the AZ Alkmaar vs Ilves match is: under 3.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 31/07/2025 between AZ Alkmaar and Ilves in Conference League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.67% for a win of AZ Alkmaar against Ilves with odds of 1.12 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AZ Alkmaar vs Ilves is 8.33% with odds of 13.5 at Betwinner.
- Our prediction model gives a 46% chance ⭐ for a win of Ilves vs AZ Alkmaar with odds of 21 at Betwinner.
AZ Alkmaar - Ilves Prediction and Best Odds:
| AZ Alkmaar Ilves Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ilves wins | 46% | 21 at Betwinner |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.92% | 1.3 at William Hill |
| Both Team To Score | 52.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time: Ilves/Ilves | 19.13% | 29 at Bet365 |
AZ Alkmaar vs Ilves Form
AZ Alkmaar and Ilves Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
24 Jul 2025 - Conference League
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
16 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
19 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
12 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
25 May 2025 - Eredivisie
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jul 2025 - Conference League
16 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
28 Jun 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
14 May 2025 - Eredivisie
4 May 2025 - Eredivisie
13 Apr 2025 - Eredivisie
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jul 2025 - Conference League
20 Jul 2025 - Veikkausliiga
17 Jul 2025 - Europa League
14 Jul 2025 - Veikkausliiga
10 Jul 2025 - Europa League
5 Jul 2025 - Veikkausliiga
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Jul 2025 - Conference League
17 Jul 2025 - Europa League
14 Jul 2025 - Veikkausliiga
2 Jul 2025 - Veikkausliiga
18 Jun 2025 - Veikkausliiga
24 May 2025 - Veikkausliiga
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Jul 2025 - Veikkausliiga
10 Jul 2025 - Europa League
5 Jul 2025 - Veikkausliiga
28 Jun 2025 - Veikkausliiga
14 Jun 2025 - Veikkausliiga
1 Jun 2025 - Veikkausliiga
AZ Alkmaar vs Ilves Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
24 Jul 2025 - Conference League
Most goals and assists
AZ Alkmaar
Ilves
T. Parrott
(3 Goals)
K. Smit
(2 Assists)
AZ Alkmaar - Ilves Key Points
- AZ Alkmaar have seen five of their last eight matches across all competitions this season end with under 3.5 goals.
- Ilves have seen four of their last seven competitive matches across all competitions end with under 3.5 goals.
- AZ Alkmaar have seen each of their last two home matches end with under 3.5 goals.
- AZ Alkmaar concedes 1.3 goals per game when playing at home, and Ilves concedes 1.6 goals per game when playing away.
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Our AZ Alkmaar vs Ilves Prediction
AZ Alkmaar are overwhelming favorites with bookmakers to cruise to a comfortable win. Their odds in the full-time market are unappealing. However, there is no doubt about their victory in this upcoming match, especially considering that they concluded the previous Eredivisie season with a five-match unbeaten run at home. During that period, they recorded three wins and two draws.
Three of those matches, though, ended with under 3.5 goals. This is a pattern we expect to see in this upcoming encounter. Our AZ Alkmaar vs Ilves prediction: under 3.5.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis AZ Alkmaar Ilves
| AZ Alkmaar vs Ilves | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar wins | 1.18 | 1.1 | -6.8% |
| Draw | 6.5 | 10 | +53.8% |
| Ilves wins | 12 | 15 | +25.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Ilves is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 25.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 8.3% and is now 6.7% (-1.7%)
Get up to £30 to bet on the AZ Alkmaar vs. Ilves game
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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