South America - Copa Libertadores
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Copa Libertadores Predictions
A tight affair could be waiting for us as Colombian club Atletico Nacional plays Brazilian side Sao Paulo in the 2025 CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores round-of-16 first leg. This first-leg match on Wednesday at Estadio Atanasio Girardot comes with our prediction of at least one team failing to score.
The winner of this two-legged tie will move to the quarter-finals, where they face the winner of the other round of 16 between Botafogo and LDU Quito. The Colombians are looking to go past the round of 16 for the first time since the 2015/16 season, when they won the title. Sao Paulo are looking to reach the quarterfinals of this competition for the third consecutive season.
Nacional finished second in Group F with nine points (W3, L3) to qualify for this round directly. They come here on the back of twin 3-0 wins against Alianza and Cucuta in Colombian domestic competitions for a third victory in four games.
The hosts have kept four consecutive clean sheets and will hope to continue that to progress in this competition. Sao Paulo are also coming off a win at the weekend, a 2-0 result against Vitoria.
That made it six wins out of their last seven games (W6, L1), and the Brazilians will look to stay alive in the tie for the reverse leg.
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The Best Betting Odds for Atlético Nacional v SAO Paulo Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.15 | 3 | 3.75 |
|
|
2.15 | 2.8 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.15 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
|
|
2.15 | 3 | 3.75 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.1 | 3.8 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Atlético Nacional and SAO Paulo?
Our prediction for the Atlético Nacional vs SAO Paulo match is: BTTS No.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 12/08/2025 between Atlético Nacional and SAO Paulo in Copa Libertadores :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45% for a win of Atlético Nacional against SAO Paulo with odds of 2.16 at LSbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atlético Nacional vs SAO Paulo is 19.68% with odds of 3.1 at Unibet.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.32% chance ⭐ for a win of SAO Paulo vs Atlético Nacional with odds of 3.8 at Unibet.
Atlético Nacional - SAO Paulo Prediction and Best Odds:
| Atlético Nacional SAO Paulo Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético Nacional wins | 45% | 2.16 at LSbet |
| Under 2.5 | 51.27% | 1.37 at Bwin |
| Both Team To Score | 50% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Atlético Nacional | 18.27% | 5 at Bet365 |
Atlético Nacional vs SAO Paulo Form
Atlético Nacional and SAO Paulo Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Aug 2025 - Liga Postobon
5 Aug 2025 - Copa Colombia
2 Aug 2025 - Liga Postobon
29 Jul 2025 - Copa Colombia
25 Jul 2025 - Liga Postobon
22 Jul 2025 - Liga Postobon
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
8 Aug 2025 - Liga Postobon
29 Jul 2025 - Copa Colombia
25 Jul 2025 - Liga Postobon
19 Jul 2025 - Liga Postobon
16 Jun 2025 - Liga Postobon I, Group A
8 Jun 2025 - Liga Postobon I, Group A
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Aug 2025 - Copa Colombia
2 Aug 2025 - Liga Postobon
22 Jul 2025 - Liga Postobon
11 Jul 2025 - Liga Postobon
19 Jun 2025 - Liga Postobon I, Group A
12 Jun 2025 - Liga Postobon I, Group A
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
6 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
3 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
31 Jul 2025 - Copa do Brasil
27 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
24 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
9 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
31 Jul 2025 - Copa do Brasil
27 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
19 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Jun 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
27 May 2025 - Copa Libertadores
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Aug 2025 - Copa do Brasil
3 Aug 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
24 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
16 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
12 Jul 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
31 May 2025 - Brasileirão Serie A
Atlético Nacional against SAO Paulo Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Most goals and assists
Atlético Nacional
SAO Paulo
A. Morelos
(15 Goals)
A. Silva
(9 Goals)
A. Morelos
(12 Assists)
E. Diaz
(5 Assists)
Atlético Nacional - SAO Paulo Key Points
- At least one team failed to score in Nacional’s last four games.
- Sao Paulo’s last two games have also seen just one team score.
- In six of Nacional’s last seven matches in this competition, only one team scored goals.
- In just four of Sao Paulo’s last 12 matches in this competition, both teams scored.
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Our Atlético Nacional vs SAO Paulo Prediction
Goals have been scarce in recent matches involving Nacional, and the odds on this match ending with fewer than three goals are very low. With clean sheets making a constant appearance in recent matches involving either Nacional or Sao Paulo, this match is likely to go the same route, with goals coming at a premium.
This match is more than likely to be a cagey affair with goals unlikely from both teams. That's why our Atletico Nacional vs SAO Paulo prediction is BTTS No.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Atlético Nacional SAO Paulo
| Atlético Nacional vs SAO Paulo | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Nacional wins | 2.15 | 2.15 | 0% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3 | -11.8% |
| SAO Paulo wins | 3.3 | 3.75 | +13.6% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atlético Nacional is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 46.5% and is now 46.5% (0.0%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
