Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - Spanish Super Cup
Spain - Spanish Super Cup
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Football Predictions
Arch rivals Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid take their rivalry to Saudi Arabia in the 2026 Supercopa de Espana competition. This is the second semi-final match of the 42nd edition to be played at the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Jeddah on Thursday, with our prediction favouring goals from both teams.
The winner of this competition will face the winner of the first semi-final between Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao. These sides qualified for this competition in contrasting manners. Atletico qualified by finishing third in the 2024-25 La Liga competition, while Real were runners-up in both the La Liga and Copa del Rey competitions in the 2024-25 season.
These sides already met in the La Liga competition this season, where Atletico ran away 5-2 winners. A repeat could be a bit of a stretch considering the stakes involved in a knockout competition. Regardless, Real have a lot to improve considering their recent run of draws and failures to win. Which Madrid side will end up progressing in this competition? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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2.9 | 3.4 | 2.35 |
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2.88 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
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2.88 | 3.3 | 2.3 |
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2.88 | 3.5 | 2.32 |
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2.88 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 08/01/2026 between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in Spanish Super Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 45.14% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid with odds of 2.96 at BC Game.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid is 21.29% with odds of 3.6 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 33.57% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.44 at Tonybet.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Form
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
13 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
21 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
9 Dec 2025 - Champions League
6 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
10 Dec 2025 - Champions League
7 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Dec 2025 - Copa del Rey
14 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
30 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
50 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
29 Sept 2024 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2024 - LaLiga
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Atletico drew 1-1 away at Real Sociedad at the weekend in La Liga, but that was a rare game where they dropped points in recent matches. Diego Simeone’s side has won ten of their last 13 matches in all competitions, with their two defeats coming against Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao in the league.
Since lifting the La Liga competition in the 2020-21 season, Atletico have failed to win any piece of silverware. Interestingly, Atletico have won just two of their last five matches away from home, although this neutral venue would neutralise their disadvantage.
Seven of the last 11 head-to-head matches ended level during regular time.
Real thrashed Betis 5-1 at home last weekend, coming into this match. Xabi Alonso’s side has won three games in a row in the league, but stretching it slightly back, Los Blancos have failed to win six of their last 11 matches in all competitions.
With Real trailing Barcelona by four points in La Liga, this competition could be Alonso’s best shot at landing a title this season. They have reached the final in all five editions of the competition held in Saudi Arabia, so there’s a lot going for Real when it comes to the Spanish Super Cup.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Atletico Madrid & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Clement Lenglet and Nicolas Gonzalez remain the only major injury absences for Atletico, who otherwise have a full squad to choose from. That could see them continue in a 4-4-2 formation, although they have veered away from it on a few occasions recently.
Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez are likely to lead the line for Atletico, looking to add to their tally of six and 11 goals, respectively, this season in all competitions.
Real have concerns over Kylian Mbappe's availability for this crucial clash.
The French forward missed Real’s match against Betis last time out, although he could be available for selection here. While Mbappe remains an outside chance, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Eder Militao, and Brahim Diaz are out of this match.
With Mbappe out, Los Blancos could line up in a 4-4-2 formation rather than the regular 4-3-3 system. Gonzalo Garcia scored a hat-trick in Real’s win over Betis and could fancy a starting role here if Mbappe misses out. That said, the French forward could be pushing for selection until the last minute, seeing as he scored 29 goals in all competitions this season.
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid Key Points
- Seven of Atletico’s last 11 matches in all competitions saw both teams score goals.
- Atletico scored 2+ goals in five of their last eight matches in all competitions.
- Six of Real’s last nine competitive matches saw both teams score goals.
- In 11 of the last 12 matches between these sides in all competitions, both teams scored goals.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
There’s always something in the air, on and off the air, when these two Madrid rivals meet. Atletico don’t have a great record in the Spanish Super Cup, while Real are one of the best sides when it comes to the history of this competition. There’s very little to separate these sides in terms of recent form as well, although Atletico edge Real slightly on that count. To go with that, Atletico won 5-2 when these sides met earlier in the season in La Liga.
This match could be tight, and our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction is BTTS.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Draw
Who can predict derbies, especially the fiery Madrid derbies? Atletico may have edged Real 5-2 when they met earlier in the season in September, but this one could be a lot tighter. Five of the last eight and seven of the last 11 matches between these sides ended as a draw during regular time. Another stalemate could be looming large at us.
Get up to €100 to bet on the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Spanish Super Cup!
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - FAQs
The Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Supercopa de Espana semi-finals match will be played at the neutral venue of King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Jeddah. This venue is known as Alinma Stadium due to sponsorship reasons, also nicknamed the Shining Jewel. It is main stadium of the sports city located 30 km north of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
It has a capacity of 62,345 and is set to be a venue for the 2034 FIFA World Cup, where it will host fixtures in the group stage, round of 32, round of 16, and quarterfinals.
The Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Supercopa de Espana semi-finals match will be telecast live on TNT Sports 1 for viewers in the UK. The subscribers will be able to access the game on the Discovery+ app on their phone or tablet device.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our Supercopa de Espana Livescore page!
Atletico Madrid have won the title two times in the history of the competition, the last one coming in 2014, while they were losing finalists in 2020.
Real Madrid are the second-most successful side in the history of this competition. They won the trophy on 13 occasions, with their last title win coming in 2024.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
