Spain - LaLiga
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by Sridhar Bhamidi in LaLiga Predictions
The first Madrid derby of the 2025-26 campaign couldn’t have been more different, as Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid meet on Saturday at Metropolitano in a La Liga matchday seven fixture. This match between Rojiblancos (eighth, nine points) and Los Blancos (first, 18 points) comes with our prediction of both teams scoring goals.
Atletico start this round nine points behind their city rivals Real, who have won all their six league matches in this campaign. Although this is not yet a must-win for Atletico, there’s a sense that Diego Simeone can’t afford another loss here. Real would love to put another dagger in the title chances of their bitter rivals, especially as this is Xabi Alonso’s first derby as manager.
Recent matches between the Madrid rivals have been tight affairs, and that gives hope to Atletico fans, who won’t mind getting a point here. Will this be a strategic battle between the two bitter city rivals? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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The Best Betting Odds for Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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3 | 3.6 | 2.25 |
|
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3 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
|
|
2.9 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
|
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2.88 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
|
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3 | 3.55 | 2.25 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid?
Our prediction for the Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 27/09/2025 between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.46% for a win of Atletico Madrid against Real Madrid with odds of 3.05 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid is 19.67% with odds of 3.65 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.87% chance ⭐ for a win of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid with odds of 2.44 at 22bet.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Form
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
18 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
|
8
|
9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
21 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
17 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
24 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
23 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
23 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
18 May 2025 - LaLiga
10 May 2025 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
17 Sep 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
17 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
24 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
16 Sep 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
19 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
5 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
1 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
13 Sep 2025 - LaLiga
24 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
12 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Jul 2025 - Club World Cup
26 Jun 2025 - Club World Cup
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
50 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Feb 2025 - LaLiga
29 Sep 2024 - LaLiga
4 Feb 2024 - LaLiga
18 Jan 2024 - Copa del Rey
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid: Form Analysis
Atletico’s start to the league season (W2, D3, L1) has been indifferent, although they were beaten just once so far. The lone loss came on matchday one when they were beaten 2-1 at Espanyol.
Despite their poor start to the season, Simeone’s team have been very impressive at home. They have managed seven points in three home league games this year (W2, D1), scoring six goals in the process but also conceding three.
Atletico scored in all six and conceded in five of their league matches this season.
Real are the team to beat in La Liga, winning all six of their matches so far. That included a comprehensive 4-1 win away at Levante on Tuesday, which was perhaps their most comprehensive performance of the season.
Tight wins against Mallorca and Real Sociedad earlier in the season by a 2-1 scoreline are an indicator that the visitors are ready to win even when they are performing poorly. This is a statement of intent for new manager Xabi Alonso, who will look to mark his debut season with a big derby win.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Missing players
J. Gimenez
MidfielderT. Almada
J. Cardoso
ForwardA. Sorloth
F. Mendy
A. Rudiger
T. Alexander-Arnold
Atletico Madrid & Real Madrid Squad Analysis
Atletico will have Alexander Sorloth available after suspension. The hosts are still without Jose Gimenez and Thiago Almada, while Johnny Cardoso is also a doubt for this derby.
The hosts are unlikely to tinker with their 4-4-2 combination, but Simeone could think about using Conor Gallagher in the middle of the park for his energy. The presence of Julian Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann gives teeth to their forward line.
Alvarez scored a hat-trick in Atletico’s latest game.
Looking to stop him would be the visiting side, who will be without Trent Alexander-Arnold and Antonio Rudiger. Questions also circle around Ferland Mendy, who is nearing a return from injury, but this game could be coming too soon.
Alonso has shown flexibility in lining up his sides in different formations this season, although the most popular one was 4-2-3-1. That could mean Kylian Mbappe lining up as their lone striker with Vinicius Jr manning the wings right behind. Mbappe has nine goals from his last nine club matches and will be key for Real’s chances.
Most goals and assists
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
J. Alvarez
(4 Goals)
K. Mbappe
(9 Goals)
M. Llorente
(2 Assists)
F. Valverde
(3 Assists)
, 
V. Junior
(3 Assists)
Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid Stats in LaLiga
Atletico Madrid - Real Madrid Key Points
- In six of Atletico’s seven competitive matches this season, both teams scored goals.
- In La Liga, five of Atletico’s six matches this season, both teams scored goals.
- Four of Real’s last five matches in all competitions produced goals from both teams.
- In the league, three of Real’s last four matches have seen goals scored by both teams of the day.
- Madrid scored at least two goals in their three away league matches this season.
- Ten of the last 11 matches between Atletico and Real in all competitions have seen both teams score goals.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
This is the first Madrid derby of the season, and Real Madrid come into this with the best of form. They have been winning games even when they aren’t at their best, which is a sign of champions. That said, Atletico are stubborn at home when playing Real, which adds another layer of intrigue to this derby. Atletico need a win to lift their morale, as three of their last five league games ended in a draw.
Both the teams have served games laden with goals lately, and our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction is both teams to score.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Draw and BTTS
Four of the last five league matches between Atletico and Real ended in 1-1 draws, and that could once again be the case here. Not least because Atletico have drawn three of their last five La Liga matches. Backing a draw in this fixture could be a tricky, yet risky, pick.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid match : Frequently asked questions
The Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid The Spanish La Liga match will be played at the Metropolitano Stadium, which is referred to as the Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium for sponsorship reasons. This has been the home stadium of Atletico since 2017. The original stadium was built as part of Madrid's unsuccessful bid to host the 1997 World Athletics Championships and was opened on 6 September 1994 by the Community of Madrid. It was closed in 2004 due to the city's unsuccessful bid for the 2016 Olympics, and in 2013 it passed into the possession of Atletico Madrid. The venue has a capacity of 70,692 for football games.
The Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Spanish La Liga match is not available to view live in the UK. In Spain, the match will be broadcast live on DAZN Espana with DAZN LaLiga and DAZN LaLiga 2 streaming the game live.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our Spanish La Liga Livescore page!
The Madrid derby (Spanish: El Derbi Madrileno) is the name given to football matches between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, both coming from the Spanish capital city of Madrid. The rivalry between the two clubs started at the very beginning of the twentieth century.
Madrid Foot-Ball Club (founded 1902) was the most powerful club in Madrid and was merging the best smaller clubs in the city. The main exception to this pattern was Athletic Club Madrid (founded 1903). Over the years, the derby got closer and tenser, especially in the recent years after Diego Simeone took charge of Atletico. With so much on the line in the derby, expect this weekend to be full of action on and off the field!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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