Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips - LaLiga
Spain - LaLiga
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by Daniel Ngulu | in LaLiga Predictions
Both Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao are looking to bounce back from recent defeats when they clash in La Liga this Saturday. Athletic arrived for this match placed eighth, while Atletico are fourth. Read on for our prediction.
Athletic Club’s struggles in the season continued last week, with a 3-0 defeat at home to Real Madrid. A second straight home match presents them with the opportunity to try and get their rhythm back.
The home side’s inconsistent run has the team on three wins in the last 10 games. They lost five of the last eight matches and failed to score in six of their latest 10 games.
Atletico Madrid were also given a reality check of their own in midweek. Out in Barcelona, Atletico scored first, but the tables were turned as the league leaders went on to win 3-1.
That way, Atletico saw their run of seven straight wins cut short. They have not lost a game since falling 4-0 at Arsenal in the Champions League.
As they look to start another winning run, Atletico will be boosted by their record against Athletic Bilbao. In the last three meetings, Atleti posted wins, and the latest two came with clean sheets.
Most of these meetings also registered low scores.
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Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.8 | 3.3 | 2.65 |
|
|
3.01 | 3.22 | 2.44 |
|
|
3.01 | 3.22 | 2.44 |
|
|
2.8 | 3.2 | 2.55 |
|
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2.8 | 3.15 | 2.56 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid match is: Atletico Madrid to win and under 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/12/2025 between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 36.8% for a win of Athletic Bilbao against Atletico Madrid with odds of 3.01 at Melbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid is 22.85% with odds of 3.35 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 40.36% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao with odds of 2.7 at 888Starz.
Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Athletic Bilbao Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid wins | 40.36% | 2.7 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 55.96% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 55.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Atletico Madrid | 19.44% | 6 at Bet365 |
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Form
Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
69 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 |
|
12
|
45 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | -15 |
Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
9 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
22 Oct 2025 - Champions League
4 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
23 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
25 Nov 2025 - Champions League
22 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
5 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
26 Nov 2025 - Champions League
8 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
4 Nov 2025 - Champions League
1 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
23 Nov 2025 - LaLiga
27 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
21 Oct 2025 - Champions League
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2024 - LaLiga
27 Apr 2024 - LaLiga
29 Feb 2024 - Copa del Rey
7 Feb 2024 - Copa del Rey
16 Dec 2023 - LaLiga
Athletic Bilbao against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
A. Padilla
DefenderI. Lekue
D. Vivian
A. Boiro
A. Gorosabel
M. Vesga
A. Rego Mora
U. Gomez
S. Sanchez Camilo
ForwardN. Serrano
U. Izeta
E. Bujan de Rueda
M. De Luis
J. Musso
DefenderR. Le Normand
J. Bonar
A. Puric
M. Ruggeri
J. Galan
Koke
A. Griezmann
C. Martin
G. Raspadori
A. Sorloth
Missing players
Y. Alvarez
U. Egiluz
MidfielderB. Prados
ForwardI. Williams
R. Navarro
M. Sannadi
J. Gimenez
M. Llorente
MidfielderA. Baena
J. Cardoso
Most goals and assists
Athletic Bilbao
Atletico Madrid
G. Guruzeta
(10 Goals)
A. Sorloth
(13 Goals)
Y. Berchiche
(6 Assists)
, 
I. Williams
(6 Assists)
G. Simeone
(6 Assists)
Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams had under 2.5 goals.
- Athletic Bilbao scored just once in their last three home matches.
- Atletico Madrid scored more than a goal in only three of their nine away games.
- Six of Athletic Bilbao’s last 10 matches had under 2.5 goals scored.
- Atletico Madrid are on three straight wins against Athletic Bilbao.
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Our Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Atletico Madrid was on a superb run until Barcelona intervened in their midweek meeting. They will be traveling to Bilbao looking to start another fine run, and recent head-to-head records favor the side from the capital. They have three straight wins against Athletic, and in the last two, they kept clean sheets, though only scoring once in each.
Athletic Club are having a tough run in the season, and this will be another difficult game. We don’t expect them to lose heavily though. Our prediction for Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid is for Atletico Madrid to win and under 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Athletic Bilbao Atletico Madrid
| Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao wins | 3.74 | 3.01 | -19.5% |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.35 | +2.1% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 2.07 | 2.7 | +30.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Atletico Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 30.4% since opening
- The probability of this result was 48.3% and is now 37.0% (-11.3%)
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
