Europe - Champions League
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by Steve Ashfield | in Champions League Predictions
For the second time this season, Arsenal host PSG in the Champions League. They previously met in the league phase and now face each other again, this time in the semi-final first leg. Can the Gunners get another home win? Here's our match prediction.
Arsenal won that previous match 2-0 and would probably take that if offered it right now. They are in the Champions League semi-finals for the first time since 2009 and it's 19 years since they last reached the final. The Gunners finished third in the league phase and three of the final top four have reached the semi-finals.
The team that hasn't made it to the semi-finals are Liverpool and they lost to PSG in the last 16. The French champions long to win this trophy and now play their sixth match of the season against a side from the English Premier League. Can they repeat that win at Anfield?
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The Best Betting Odds for Arsenal v PSG Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.15 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.15 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.17 | 3.45 | 3.4 |
|
|
2.23 | 3.48 | 3.5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and PSG?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs PSG match is: both teams to score.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 29/04/2025 between Arsenal and PSG in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 38.47% for a win of Arsenal against PSG with odds of 2.23 at 1xbet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs PSG is 32.43% with odds of 3.55 at Betsson.
- Our prediction model gives a 29.1% chance ⭐ for a win of PSG vs Arsenal with odds of 3.72 at Betwinner.
Arsenal - PSG Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal PSG Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 38.47% | 2.23 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.45% | 1.94 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 76.04% | 1.74 at Betsson |
| Half-time / Full-time : Arsenal/Arsenal | 16.65% | 3.55 at Betsson |
Arsenal vs PSG Form
Arsenal and PSG Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Apr 2025 - Premier League
20 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Apr 2025 - Champions League
12 Apr 2025 - Premier League
8 Apr 2025 - Champions League
5 Apr 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Apr 2025 - Premier League
12 Apr 2025 - Premier League
8 Apr 2025 - Champions League
1 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Mar 2025 - Premier League
12 Mar 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Apr 2025 - Premier League
16 Apr 2025 - Champions League
5 Apr 2025 - Premier League
9 Mar 2025 - Premier League
4 Mar 2025 - Champions League
26 Feb 2025 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Apr 2025 - Champions League
9 Apr 2025 - Champions League
5 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
19 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Apr 2025 - Champions League
5 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
5 Mar 2025 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Apr 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Apr 2025 - Champions League
1 Apr 2025 - French Cup
29 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
11 Mar 2025 - Champions League
8 Mar 2025 - Ligue 1
Arsenal vs PSG Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
1 Oct 2024 - Champions League
28 Jul 2018 - International Champions Cup
23 Nov 2016 - Champions League
13 Sep 2016 - Champions League
Arsenal - PSG: Form Analysis
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 12 matches. That has helped them reach the last four in this competition but not be good enough to top the Premier League. The Gunners have gone six home matches without defeat but three have been drawn, most recently against Crystal Palace.
They have been strong at home in this season's Champions League. Five of their six matches have been won with the other being a draw against PSV. The Dutch side are the only side to score against Arsenal at the Emirates in those six matches.
PSG will be out for revenge.
PSG will want some revenge after losing 2-0 at the Emirates in October. They made a slow start to their Champions League campaign and only finished 15th in the league phase. The Parisians have improved though and then scored 21 goals while winning their next five matches.
They have only won one of their last four matches and recently lost 3-2 at Aston Villa. That was their third Champions League away loss of the season.
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Arsenal against PSG Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Missing players
T. Tomiyasu
R. Calafiori
G. Magalhaes
MidfielderJorginho
T. Partey
ForwardG. Jesus
K. Havertz
Arsenal & PSG Squad Analysis
Arsenal will be without Thomas Partey for this match. He wil be serving a one-match suspension after being booked in the second leg of their quarter-final. That is likely to cause them a few problems with their only other regular number six being Jorginho and he's out injured. Riccardio Calafiori has a knee injury and with Gabriel also injured, Arsenal will do well to maintain their impressive home defensive form in the Champions League.
Another doubt is Mikel Merino but he is expected to play on Tuesday. Arsenal will be going all out to get a good lead to take to Paris for the second leg. They will be hoping Declan Rice can maintain his good recent form. PSG will certainly need to try and not concede free-kicks in dangerous areas.
No injury problems for PSG.
PSG have been going well when it comes to avoiding injuries and suspensions. They are expected to be at full strength for this match. That gives them so many options that can cause Arsenal some problems.
Ousmane Dembele has scored seven goals so far in this season's Champions League. He hasn't scored since getting the start of April. A repeat of the winner he scored at Anfield would be good enough for PSG.
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
PSG
K. Havertz
(15 Goals)
O. Dembele
(29 Goals)
B. Saka
(13 Assists)
B. Barcola
(13 Assists)
Arsenal - PSG Key Points
- Both teams have scored in three of the last four Arsenal games.
- Four of the last six Arsenal home games have seen both teams score.
- Eight of the last nine PSG games have seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
- Both teams have scored in five of the last six PSG away matches.
- PSG have scored in each of their last 18 away matches. Arsenal have scored in 11 of their last 12 at home.
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Our Arsenal vs PSG Prediction
Arsenal are yet to lose a home game in the 2024-25 Champions League. That includes a 2-0 win over PSG in the league phase but a lot has happened since then. The French side were struggling at that stage and have shown considerable improvement since then.
The Gunners have injury problems at the back and that is not good news when facing PSG. Both sides score regularly but concede too. Our main Arsenal v PSG prediction is both teams to score.
Arsenal vs PSG - Other Interesting Predictions
Second half to have most goals scored
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal PSG
| Arsenal vs PSG | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 2 | 2.15 | +7.5% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.4 | +3.0% |
| PSG wins | 3.8 | 3.4 | -10.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 7.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 50.0% and is now 46.5% (-3.5%)
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Arsenal vs PSG match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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