Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction & Betting Tips - Carabao Cup
England - Carabao Cup
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Devesh Jaganath | in Carabao Cup Predictions
Beneath the Wembley arch, where glory is guaranteed for one and heartbreak for the other, Arsenal and Manchester City will face off for the first major trophy of the season this Sunday - it’s the 2025-26 Carabao Cup final! The Gunners last won this title in 1993, while the Citizens lifted the trophy four times in a row between 2018 and 2021. Check out our match prediction below!
For the Gooners, this final represents more than just a shot at their first piece of silverware in almost six years - it could be their team’s first step in their fearless quadruple pursuit. Buoyed by their midweek Champions League triumph, Mikel Arteta’s side arrive at Wembley with the momentum, form, and firepower in their favour as they look to finally end their trophy drought.
While City step into the Home of Football with their Premier League title hunt slipping away and their UCL ambitions already extinguished, the season is far from lost. Pep Guardiola’s focus will now shift to domestic cup competitions, where they could outgun the Gunners to not just this title, but the FA Cup as well, and salvage success in what has been a tough campaign. To the key stats!
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Arsenal v Manchester City Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.32 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
|
|
2.26 | 3.38 | 3.19 |
|
|
2.24 | 3.38 | 3.22 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.45 | 3.3 |
|
|
2.3 | 3.45 | 3.3 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Manchester City?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Manchester City match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/03/2026 between Arsenal and Manchester City in Carabao Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 54.94% for a win of Arsenal against Manchester City with odds of 2.32 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Manchester City is 22.33% with odds of 3.5 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 22.73% chance ⭐ for a win of Manchester City vs Arsenal with odds of 3.5 at Tonybet.
Arsenal - Manchester City Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal Manchester City Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 54.94% | 2.32 at Stake |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.55% | 1.98 at Shangrila |
| Both Team To Score: No | 50.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Arsenal | 23.91% | 6 at LSbet |
Arsenal vs Manchester City Form
Arsenal and Manchester City Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
1 Mar 2026 - Premier League
15 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
7 Feb 2026 - Premier League
3 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
22 Feb 2026 - Premier League
18 Feb 2026 - Premier League
12 Feb 2026 - Premier League
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Mar 2026 - Champions League
4 Mar 2026 - Premier League
21 Feb 2026 - Premier League
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
11 Feb 2026 - Premier League
4 Feb 2026 - Carabao Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Mar 2026 - Premier League
11 Mar 2026 - Champions League
7 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Premier League
8 Feb 2026 - Premier League
1 Feb 2026 - Premier League
Arsenal vs Manchester City Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
21 Sept 2025 - Premier League
2 Feb 2025 - Premier League
22 Sept 2024 - Premier League
31 Mar 2024 - Premier League
8 Oct 2023 - Premier League
6 Aug 2023 - Community Shield
Arsenal - Manchester City: Form Analysis
After years of near misses, it feels as though this could be Arsenal’s moment. They are chasing a third EFL Cup title but have lost more finals in this competition than any other club (6), including to the Citizens in 2018.
Still, momentum is firmly behind the Gunners, as they are one of only two English teams still standing in the UCL, nine points clear in the EPL, and unbeaten in their last 14 matches across all competitions.
En route to this Wembley blockbuster, Arsenal defeated Port Vale, Brighton & Hove Albion and Crystal Palace (on penalties), before ousting London rivals Chelsea 4-2 on aggregate in the semi-finals.
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six matches against Man City across all competitions (W3 D3)!
Meanwhile, despite their recent issues, writing off Man City isn’t easy. Since Arsenal last won silverware, Guardiola has steered his team to four EPL titles, one FA Cup, one EFL Cup and a UCL title.
The Citizens have won each of their last seven Carabao Cup finals, but enter this match with only one win in their last five games - a 3-1 victory over Newcastle United in the FA Cup quarter-final.
The Sky Blues beat Huddersfield Town (2-0), Swansea City (3-1) and Brentford (2-0) in their first three games in this competition before clattering the Magpies 5-1 on aggregate in the semi-finals.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Arsenal against Manchester City Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Substitutes
D. Raya
DefenderR. Calafiori
C. Mosquera
MidfielderC. Norgaard
M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Dowman
ForwardN. Madueke
G. Martinelli
G. Jesus
G. Donnarumma
DefenderR. Ait-Nouri
J. Stones
MidfielderT. Reijnders
N. Gonzalez
Savinho
P. Foden
M. Kovacic
ForwardO. Marmoush
Missing players
J. Timber
MidfielderM. Merino
M. Guehi
J. Gvardiol
R. Lewis
Arsenal & Manchester City Squad Analysis
Eberechi Eze will have fond memories of Wembley, having scored the winner against the Citizens in last season’s FA Cup final, and he will enter this match with confidence after netting a pearler against Leverkusen in midweek.
The Gunners have scored 32 goals from set pieces this season across all competitions (24 from corners). There have been few more intimidating sights this term than seeing Gabriel Magalhaes lining up to meet a Declan Rice corner, and it would come as no surprise if we see the big Brazilian net another here.
Jurrien Timber missed the UCL second leg against Leverkusen with an ankle injury and is a major doubt for this match, while skipper Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino have been ruled out.
Erling Haaland has scored in each of his last three matches against Arsenal!
The Norwegian has been going through a bit of a dry spell of late and has not scored in six appearances at Wembley. However, he was on the scoresheet against Madrid in midweek and will be determined to make his mark on this match.
One player who City fans will be hoping to continue his good form in this competition is Rayan Cherki. The Frenchman has three goals and an assist in four EFL Cup matches this season, averaging a goal contribution every 47 minutes in the competition.
A major blow for the Citizens here is the absence of Marc Guehi, who is cup-tied, having featured for Palace in the competition earlier this season. Josko Gvardiol (tibial fracture) is the only other confirmed absentee for Guardiola’s side this weekend.
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
Manchester City
L. Trossard
(1 Goals)
, 
E. Eze
(1 Goals)
,
B. Saka
(1 Goals)
,
E. Nwaneri
(1 Goals)
, 
V. Gyokeres
(1 Goals)
,
B. White
(1 Goals)
, 
M. Zubimendi
(1 Goals)
, 
K. Havertz
(1 Goals)
O. Marmoush
(3 Goals)
, 
R. Cherki
(3 Goals)
M. Lewis-Skelly
(2 Assists)
,
D. Rice
(2 Assists)
R. Cherki
(2 Assists)
Arsenal - Manchester City Key Points
- Five of Arsenal’s last eight matches in domestic competitions have ended with both teams scoring.
- Arsenal have scored two or more goals in seven of their last 10 matches.
- Five of Man City’s last eight matches in domestic competitions have ended with both teams scoring.
- Man City have only failed to score in one of their last 15 games across all competitions.
- Each of the last three matches between these sides have ended with both teams scoring.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction
It’s a massive day for Arsenal as they go in search of their first major title since 2020 and potentially the first in their push for a quadruple this season. The Gunners have all the momentum coming into this clash and are the clear favourites, having avoided defeat in their last six encounters against this opponent.
However, Manchester City will arrive at Wembley knowing that there is more than silverware at stake - it is also an opportunity to gain a psychological edge heading into the final stretch of the season. Our main Arsenal vs Manchester City prediction is BTTS.
Arsenal vs Manchester City Alternative Predictions
Arsenal wins
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 14 matches across all competitions, dating back to January 25 and have avoided defeat in their last six encounters against this opponent. They were last beaten by City on April 6, 2023.
Bernardo Silva to be booked
Bernardo Silva will have a huge task on his hands alongside Rodri in City’s engine room against Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka. City’s skipper was sent off in midweek and has been yellow-carded 13 times already this season, including in four of his last six EPL games. He was also booked when his side last faced Arsenal back in September.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Manchester City
| Arsenal vs Manchester City | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 2.38 | 2.32 | -2.5% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.5 | +7.7% |
| Manchester City wins | 2.85 | 3.5 | +22.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 2.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 42.0% and is now 43.1% (1.1%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Arsenal vs. Manchester City game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Arsenal and Manchester City? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's Carabao Cup! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
Arsenal vs Manchester City - FAQs
The Carabao Cup final between Arsenal and Manchester City will take place on March 22 at 16:30 GMT.
The Carabao Cup final between Arsenal and Manchester City will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.
The Carabao Cup final between Arsenal and Manchester City will be broadcast on Sky Sports in the UK.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our Carabao Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
