Europe - Champions League
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by Devesh Jaganath | in Champions League Predictions
The Emirates Stadium will transform into a theatre of tension when two titans of the game - Arsenal and Atletico Madrid - take to the turf for a tantalising Tuesday night clash in the Champions League. The Gunners are fifth in League Phase standings, while Los Colchoneros are in 10th place after the first two matchdays. Check out our match prediction below!
Mikel Arteta’s side have made an excellent start to their UCL campaign - two games, two wins, two clean sheets - the numbers back the buzz building in North London this season. After beating Athletic Bilbao on Matchday 1, Arsenal have now won each of their last six Champions League matches against Spanish opponents.
Diego Simeone’s side are well capable of dogged defensive displays, but that has not been the case over the first two gameweeks in this competition. The visitors lost to Liverpool during the opening week and have failed to win any of their last nine UCL group stage matches against English teams. Let’s get into the key stats!
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The Best Betting Odds for Arsenal v Atletico Madrid Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.55 | 4.1 | 6 |
|
|
1.53 | 4.2 | 6.5 |
|
|
1.57 | 3.9 | 5.8 |
|
|
1.57 | 4 | 5.75 |
|
|
1.54 | 4 | 6.4 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid?
Our prediction for the Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid match is: Arsenal wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 21/10/2025 between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 52.3% for a win of Arsenal against Atletico Madrid with odds of 1.61 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid is 32.94% with odds of 4.3 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 14.75% chance ⭐ for a win of Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal with odds of 6.5 at Betfred.
Arsenal - Atletico Madrid Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arsenal Atletico Madrid Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 52.3% | 1.61 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 61.18% | 2.03 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 52.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Arsenal/Arsenal | 21.18% | 2.4 at Ladbrokes |
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Form
Arsenal and Atletico Madrid's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
15 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
|
12
|
9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Arsenal and Atletico Madrid Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
28 Sept 2025 - Premier League
24 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
21 Sept 2025 - Premier League
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Premier League
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
21 Sept 2025 - Premier League
13 Sept 2025 - Premier League
23 Aug 2025 - Premier League
9 Aug 2025 - Emirates Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Premier League
28 Sept 2025 - Premier League
24 Sept 2025 - Carabao Cup
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - Premier League
17 Aug 2025 - Premier League
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
10 Oct 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
10 Oct 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
17 Sept 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
17 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
67 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Jul 2018 - International Champions Cup
3 May 2018 - Europa League
26 Apr 2018 - Europa League
Arsenal - Atletico Madrid: Form Analysis
Arsenal will be looking to extend their perfect record in Europe’s top-tier club competition here, following back-to-back 2-0 victories against Bilbao and Olympiacos over the first two matchdays.
After a solid 1-0 victory over Fulham at the weekend, the Gunners are now riding a five-match win streak and are unbeaten in their last eight games across all competitions, dating back to the end of August.
The hosts have won each of their last 14 group-stage home games in UEFA competitions and have kept 11 consecutive clean sheets in such matches leading up to this blockbuster fixture.
Arsenal is the only team in UCL history to win six in a row against Spanish opposition!
Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid kicked off their European campaign with a 3-2 defeat to Liverpool, but they bounced back in style, thumping Bundesliga outfit Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1 on Matchday 2.
While Los Rojibalncos’ defence has been questionable, they are the second-highest goal scorers in this competition (7) and have only failed to find the net in one of their last 18 UCL matches.
However, the visitors away form has been poor this season, as they have not won a single game on the road across all competitions in 2025-26. Their last away win in the Champions League came in January against Salzburg.
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Arsenal against Atletico Madrid Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Missing players
M. Odegaard
ForwardG. Jesus
K. Havertz
N. Madueke
J. Cardoso
Arsenal & Atletico Madrid Squad Analysis
Arsenal came away from Craven Cottage with no new injury concerns, but they are still without the services of Piero Hincapie, Noni Madueke, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus and skipper Martin Odegaard.
Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice are both walking tightropes after being cautioned against Olympiacos, but Arteta will likely take the risk and start the midfield duo, given that their next match is against Slavia Prague.
Bukayo Saka should also start this one after coming off the bench to net the Gunners' second goal on Matchday 2, which took his tally to 11 goals in 19 Champions League matches.
Julian Alvarez has scored seven goals in his last seven UCL matches!
With three goal involvements, Alvarez was the standout performer against Frankfurt, but he never managed to score against this opponent in his four previous appearances against them for Man City.
Atleti’s victory over Osasuna at the weekend came at a cost, with Nico Gonzalez sustaining a head injury which will keep him sidelined for this match. Simeone is likely to call upon his son, Giuliano, to replace Gonzalez in the visitors’ engine room.
Ilias Kostis and Johnny Cardoso are ruled out this week through injury. Clement Lenglet is likely to return to the starting 11 after missing the victory over the weekend due to suspension.
Most goals and assists
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
B. Saka
(7 Goals)
J. Alvarez
(10 Goals)
L. Trossard
(5 Assists)
,
D. Rice
(5 Assists)
G. Simeone
(5 Assists)
Arsenal - Atletico Madrid Key Points
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions.
- Arsenal have won their last 14 group-stage home games in UEFA competitions.
- Arsenal have kept clean sheets in four of their five home games in all competitions this season.
- Atletico Madrid have not won an away game in any competition this season.
- Atletico Madrid are winless in their last nine UCL group stage matches against English teams.
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Our Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
It isn't often that Atletico Madrid enter matches as big underdogs, but that’s the case in this fixture, and much of the reason for that is because they have been very poor on the road this season.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have been excellent this term, perched atop the Premier League standings, and unbeaten in their last eight games. The Gunners have turned the Emirates into a fortress in Europe, and we feel they will keep their flawless record intact in this one. Our Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid prediction is Arsenal wins the match.
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid - Other Interesting Predictions
Both teams to score (NO)
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arsenal Atletico Madrid
| Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal wins | 1.55 | 1.55 | 0% |
| Draw | 4 | 4.1 | +2.5% |
| Atletico Madrid wins | 5.75 | 6 | +4.3% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arsenal is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 64.5% and is now 64.5% (0.0%)
Win free tickets to Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid at Bet365!
With the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 season starts, bet365 offers free tickets for their users, including Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid match!
To be in with a chance of winning tickets to any of the UEFA Champions League matchdays throughout the 2025/26 season, all fans must do is enter into the free-to-enter weekly ticket draws on the bet365 website or app*.
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Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid match : Frequently asked questions
The Champions League match between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid will take place on October 21 at 20:00 BST.
The Champions League match between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid will be played at the Emirates Stadium in London.
The Champions League match between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime in the UK.
Alternatively, you can keep up with all the action using our Champions League livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
