Arouca vs Tondela Prediction & Betting Tips - Liga Portugal
Portugal - Liga Portugal
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Geoffrey Ejiga | in Liga Portugal Predictions
Arouca vs Tondela Tondela has only one mission on the final day: beat Arouca at all costs. The visitors are relegation-bound but can climb up to three places up if they do the double over Arouca while the rest draw or lose. With top-flight football on the edge of the line, we’re backing Auriverdes to win their third game in a row in our Arouca vs Tondela match prediction.
Tondela (17th) enters this final showdown with 28 points, trailing Casa Pia and Estrela Amadora by just a single point. After appearing dead and buried, the Auriverdes have pulled off a miraculous late-season surge, winning their last two matches against Casa Pia (1-0) and Moreirense (2-0).
Manager Tozé Marreco has transformed them into a defensive wall at the perfect time, keeping back-to-back clean sheets to give them a fighting chance at safety. Meanwhile, Arouca (11th) finds themselves safe with 39 points. While they broke a winless streak with a 3-1 victory over Gil Vicente last week, their motivation levels are vastly different from their opponents.
Historically, Arouca has struggled to contain Tondela’s playing style, losing the reverse fixture 3-1 earlier this season. With their safety already long-secured, Arouca might lack the competitive "bite" required to match a side playing for its life.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Arouca v Tondela Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.25 | 3.5 | 2.14 |
|
|
3.1 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
|
|
3.26 | 3.6 | 2.13 |
|
|
3.4 | 3.5 | 2.05 |
|
|
2.94 | 3.4 | 2.28 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Arouca and Tondela?
Our prediction for the Arouca vs Tondela match is: Tondela wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 16/05/2026 between Arouca and Tondela in Liga Portugal :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 42.83% for a win of Arouca against Tondela with odds of 3.4 at Bet365.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Arouca vs Tondela is 24.17% with odds of 3.6 at Betwinner.
- Our prediction model gives a 33% chance ⭐ for a win of Tondela vs Arouca with odds of 2.34 at Tonybet.
Arouca - Tondela Prediction and Best Odds:
| Arouca Tondela Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca wins | 42.83% | 3.4 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.05% | 1.92 at Melbet |
| Both Team To Score | 53.75% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Arouca | 23.75% | 8 at Bet365 |
Arouca vs Tondela Form
Arouca and Tondela's standings in the Liga Portugal
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
42 | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | -17 |
|
17
|
28 | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -28 |
Arouca and Tondela Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
2 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
24 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
19 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
12 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
19 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
24 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
12 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
6 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
27 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
29 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
25 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
19 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
13 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
25 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
13 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
9 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
1 Mar 2026 - Liga Portugal
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 May 2026 - Liga Portugal
29 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
19 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
3 Apr 2026 - Liga Portugal
20 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
Arouca vs Tondela Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
40 %
20 %
40 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
3 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
19 Mar 2022 - Liga Portugal
29 Oct 2021 - Liga Portugal
13 May 2017 - Liga Portugal
8 Jan 2017 - Liga Portugal
Arouca against Tondela Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
J. Vinarcik
DefenderJ. Silva
D. Monteiro
H. Lee
P. Santos
M. Flores
D. Nandin
B. Mansilla
F. Mayulu
G. Souza
DefenderBebeto
J. Afonso
J. Hodge
S. Sithole
Helder Tavares
A. Van Der Heide
B. Kimpioka
J. Siebatcheu
Missing players
X. Huarte
Most goals and assists
Arouca
Tondela
A. Trezza
(9 Goals)
P. Pereira dos Santos
(6 Goals)
A. Trezza
(3 Assists)
, 
T. Fukui
(3 Assists)
, 
H. Lee
(3 Assists)
, 
J. Fontan
(3 Assists)
, 
T. Esgaio
(3 Assists)
M. Aiko
(2 Assists)
Arouca - Tondela Key Points
- Tondela beat Arouca 3-1 in their previous meeting this season in January.
- Tondela has won their last two league games.
- Arouca has conceded the second-miost goals this season (63), 11 more than Tondela.
- Tondela have also kept a clean sheet in their last two games.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Arouca vs Tondela Prediction
Tondela is in their best form of the season, having finally found defensive stability to complement their desperate need for points. Arouca’s porous defense has been their Achilles' heel all year, and against a motivated Tondela attack, it’s likely to fail them again.
With Tondela's momentum and Arouca's lack of incentive, the visitors are well-priced for an away win. We expect the Auriverdes to throw everything at this game and come away with the result. Hence, our Arouca vs Tondela prediction is that Tondela wins.Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Arouca Tondela
| Arouca vs Tondela | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca wins | 3.1 | 3.4 | +9.7% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.6 | +5.9% |
| Tondela wins | 2.2 | 2.34 | +6.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Arouca is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 9.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 32.3% and is now 29.4% (-2.8%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the Arouca vs. Tondela game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between Arouca and Tondela? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's Liga Portugal! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
