UFC - UFC 323
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by Devesh Jaganath | in UFC Predictions
The co-main event of UFC 323 at the T-Mobile Arena this weekend sees Alexandre Pantoja putting the flyweight title on the line against Joshua Van. The Cannibal has a pro record of 30-5-0, while The Fearless is 15-2-0. Let’s get into the match prediction!
For a third year in succession, Alexandre Pantoja will step into the Octagon in December to defend his flyweight title, having done so against Brandon Royval (2023) and Kai Asakura (2024).
In between those bouts, The Cannibal defeated Steve Ecreg and, most recently, Kai Kara-France to take his current win streak in the UFC to eight, dating back to July 2020.
Pantoja lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute at a 50% success rate and a 49% defence. He also averages 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 47% success rate and 69% takedown defence.
Meanwhile, Joshua Van only made his UFC debut in 2023, but here he is, in the co-main event of a major pay-per-view, and set to have his first crack at the flyweight title.
The Fearless outmanoeuvred Brandon Royval in June to take his active win streak to five since his only loss in the UFC to Charles Johnson. Of his seven wins in the franchise, five were via decision and two by KO/TKO.
Van lands 8.86 significant strikes per minute with a 56% conversion rate. While Pantoja is the more skilled technician on the mat, Van has a solid 81% takedown defence.
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Alexandre Pantoja - Joshua Van Key Points
- Alexandre Pantoja is on an eight-fight win streak.
- Alexandre Pantoja’s last two victories were via submission.
- Alexandre Pantoja attempts one submission per 15 minutes.
- Joshua Van has never won a bout in the UFC via submission.
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Our Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van Prediction
Joshua Van has risen to prominence in no time, but therein lies our concern. Yes, he did get the better of Brandon Royval in June, but outside of that, he has not really faced anyone that we’d suggest would give the champ a genuine run for his money.
Van’s striking ability is certainly impressive, but Alexandre Pantoja has seen it all at this level and will likely dominate once he gets this fight to the mat. Taking nothing away from the challenger, we feel this title shot has come too soon in his career. Our Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van prediction is Alexandre Pantoja wins.
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