Italy - Serie A
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Serie A Predictions
The top three in the Italian Serie A could change this weekend, as AC Milan host Napoli at the Giuseppe Meazza in Milan for matchday five action. Going into the weekend, three points stand between the two giants. Read on for our prediction of the match.
Champions Napoli will be defending a two-point lead, while Milan are third on nine points. It is still tight across the league standings, and no team wants to drop points at the moment. Milan have stabilized after a shaky start to the season. They are coming off a win despite not having manager Massimiliano Allegri on the touchline in the last game.
There are four sides yet to taste defeat in the league so far, but Napoli remains the only side with a perfect run. They’ve recorded four wins to start a Serie A season for the first time since the 2021/22 campaign. Napoli have avoided defeat in 19 of 20 away league matches.
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The Best Betting Odds for AC Milan v Napoli Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.25 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
|
|
1.95 | 3.4 | 4 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.3 | 4.2 |
|
|
1.91 | 3.5 | 4 |
|
|
1.88 | 3.45 | 4.1 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between AC Milan and Napoli?
Our prediction for the AC Milan vs Napoli match is: under 2.5.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 28/09/2025 between AC Milan and Napoli in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 43.66% for a win of AC Milan against Napoli with odds of 2.55 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AC Milan vs Napoli is 15.29% with odds of 3.6 at Stake.
- Our prediction model gives a 41.04% chance ⭐ for a win of Napoli vs AC Milan with odds of 4.3 at Betobet.
AC Milan - Napoli Prediction and Best Odds:
| AC Milan Napoli Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan wins | 43.66% | 2.55 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 59.88% | 1.9 at 22bet |
| Both Team To Score | 32.5% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: AC Milan | 20.72% | 5 at Betfair |
AC Milan vs Napoli Form
AC Milan and Napoli's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
|
22 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
|
4
|
22 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
AC Milan and Napoli Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Sept 2025 - Coppa Italia
20 Sept 2025 - Serie A
14 Sept 2025 - Serie A
29 Aug 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
17 Aug 2025 - Coppa Italia
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Sept 2025 - Coppa Italia
14 Sept 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
17 Aug 2025 - Coppa Italia
24 May 2025 - Serie A
9 May 2025 - Serie A
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Sept 2025 - Serie A
29 Aug 2025 - Serie A
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sept 2025 - Serie A
18 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - Serie A
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
14 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Sept 2025 - Serie A
30 Aug 2025 - Serie A
14 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Sept 2025 - Champions League
13 Sept 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
18 May 2025 - Serie A
3 May 2025 - Serie A
19 Apr 2025 - Serie A
AC Milan vs Napoli Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
33 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
30 Mar 2025 - Serie A
29 Oct 2024 - Serie A
11 Feb 2024 - Serie A
29 Oct 2023 - Serie A
18 Apr 2023 - Champions League
12 Apr 2023 - Champions League
AC Milan - Napoli: Form Analysis
Milan will welcome back manager Massimiliano Allegri for this game, after he was sent off in the win against Bologna. In their last league match, the coach orchestrated matters from the stands as Milan beat Udinese 3-0.
Milan then followed up on that win with a 3-0 victory over Lecce in the Coppa Italia. For a team that started the season with a 2-1 defeat to newly promoted Cremonese, Milan have risen well and will feel ready for the champions’ visit.
It is the first time since early 2023 that Milan have won three straight games without conceding. In 2020, they posted four such results and will be looking to match that here. However, last season Milan lost both legs in matches against Napoli.
Last season Milan won one of the 14 league games against the seven teams that finished above them.
Napoli are heading to the San Siro to face AC Milan, which will count as their toughest league match of the season so far. The champions go into this match looking to extend their fine start to the season.
They have four wins in as many matches in Serie A, with their only loss of the season having been in the Champions League. There were signs of struggling a bit in their last two league matches though, as Napoli conceded for the first time.
Against Fiorentina, Napoli won 3-1, but newly promoted Pisa pushed them in the 3-2 victory. In this game, Napoli will be gunning for a third straight win over Milan.
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AC Milan against Napoli Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Formation : 4 - 1 - 4 - 1
Missing players
A. Jashari
N. Contini
DefenderA. Buongiorno
L. Spinazzola
A. Rrahmani
M. Olivera
MidfielderL. Hasa
C. Saco
ForwardR. Lukaku
AC Milan & Napoli Squad Analysis
Santiago Gimenez is back in the goals at AC Milan. He scored in the Coppa Italia win over Pisa and will feel jump-started for the league, having gone without a goal this season. Even though he is yet to score, Gimenez carries into this game an xG of 2.15.
Starting in a twin-strike partnership with Christian Pulisic will take the pressure off Gimenez as he taps into the American’s superb run of form. Pulisic has four goal contributions so far. A shift from last season’s Milan to the current team has to be in their defending.
The Max Allegri effect is already being felt, with the team currently on four straight clean sheets. Matteo Gabbia has been the man marshalling the backline. In four starts, the defender has no card and has won 71% of his duels.
Milan’s Max Allegri has beaten Napoli’s Antonio Conte just twice in nine previous meetings.
Napoli will once again be without Romelu Lukaku for this game. The Belgian forward scored in both legs against Milan last time out and would have been a thorn to their hosts. He is set for a return in November.
Lukaku isn’t the only one missing for Napoli; this match comes too soon for defenders Pasquale Mazzocchi and Alessandro Buongiorno. The two are scheduled for October returns.
Most goals and assists
AC Milan
Napoli
C. Pulisic
(4 Goals)
, 
R. Leao
(4 Goals)
R. Hojlund
(4 Goals)
, 
F. Anguissa
(4 Goals)
, 
S. Mctominay
(4 Goals)
, 
K. De Bruyne
(4 Goals)
L. Modric
(2 Assists)
,
C. Pulisic
(2 Assists)
L. Spinazzola
(3 Assists)
, 
D. Neres
(3 Assists)
AC Milan - Napoli Key Points
- Three of Napoli’s last five matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Two of Milan’s last four matches had under 2.5 goals scored.
- Six of Milan’s last 10 home matches produced under 2.5 goals.
- Only two of these teams’ last six meetings had over 2.5 goals.
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Our AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction
The two managers in this game are known for their defensive approach to matches, and this is a strategy we are expecting to see here. At home, Milan have four clean sheets in their last five matches, while two of their last four matches have had under 2.5 goals.
The hosts look set to revert to a 4-5-1 as opposed to the 3-5-2 they’ve been employing to enhance their defence. Meanwhile, Napoli might also rethink his 4-1-4-1 structure to beef up his midfield. With such, in the goals market, our prediction for AC Milan v Napoli is for under 2.5.
AC Milan vs Napoli - Other Interesting Predictions
Match to end in a draw
It is still early in the season, and with two defensive-minded coaches meeting, neither is expected to be too adventurous. With the safety-first approach here, we expect limited goalmouth action from this encounter and pronounced midfield battles. For both sides, this marks the toughest game in Serie A so far, and our second prediction is a draw.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis AC Milan Napoli
| AC Milan vs Napoli | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan wins | 2.6 | 2.25 | -13.5% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.2 | -5.9% |
| Napoli wins | 2.6 | 3.4 | +30.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- AC Milan is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 13.5% since opening
- The probability of this result was 38.5% and is now 44.4% (6.0%)
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AC Milan vs Napoli match : Frequently asked questions
The AC Milan v Napoli match will be played on Sunday, 28th September.
The AC Milan v Napoli match will be played at the San Siro Stadium.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
