Italy - Serie A
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Kennedy Kechula | in Serie A Predictions
AC Milan and Fiorentina are having very contrasting runs so far in the season as they prepare to face off next in Serie A. Among the crunch matches lined up for the weekend, this one will find a slot among the top. Milan faltered last time out, and the price they pay is a drop from top to third place. Meanwhile, Fiorentina are taking the hit for a winless league run so far, sitting just above the relegation region. Read on to find our prediction of this match.
The two men in the dugouts are having second stints at these clubs. Max Allegri at AC Milan has engineered an impressive turnaround since losing on matchday one. He has Milan as a top contender for the title once again.
His opposite number is Stefano Pioli, whose second stint hasn’t particularly started well. Also a former Milan manager until last year, Pioli is still trying to craft out a first win at Fiorentina.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
The Best Betting Odds for AC Milan v Fiorentina Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.73 | 3.6 | 5 |
|
|
1.7 | 3.6 | 5.5 |
|
|
1.67 | 3.5 | 5 |
|
|
1.67 | 3.75 | 5.25 |
|
|
1.67 | 3.65 | 5.3 |
|
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
What is the prediction for the football match between AC Milan and Fiorentina?
Our prediction for the AC Milan vs Fiorentina match is: AC Milan wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 19/10/2025 between AC Milan and Fiorentina in Serie A :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.22% for a win of AC Milan against Fiorentina with odds of 1.75 at Stake.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between AC Milan vs Fiorentina is 33.15% with odds of 4.28 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.62% chance ⭐ for a win of Fiorentina vs AC Milan with odds of 6.35 at 888Starz.
AC Milan - Fiorentina Prediction and Best Odds:
| AC Milan Fiorentina Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan wins | 48.22% | 1.75 at Stake |
| Under 2.5 | 56.72% | 1.98 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score | 39.17% | 2.05 at William Hill |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: AC Milan | 26.69% | 4.5 at Unibet |
AC Milan vs Fiorentina Form
AC Milan and Fiorentina's standings in the Serie A
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
16 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
|
18
|
3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 |
AC Milan and Fiorentina Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
28 Sep 2025 - Serie A
23 Sep 2025 - Coppa Italia
20 Sep 2025 - Serie A
14 Sep 2025 - Serie A
29 Aug 2025 - Serie A
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sep 2025 - Serie A
23 Sep 2025 - Coppa Italia
14 Sep 2025 - Serie A
23 Aug 2025 - Serie A
17 Aug 2025 - Coppa Italia
24 May 2025 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
20 Sep 2025 - Serie A
29 Aug 2025 - Serie A
10 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
31 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
28 Sep 2025 - Serie A
21 Sep 2025 - Serie A
13 Sep 2025 - Serie A
31 Aug 2025 - Serie A
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Serie A
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
21 Sep 2025 - Serie A
13 Sep 2025 - Serie A
28 Aug 2025 - Conference League
25 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
28 Sep 2025 - Serie A
31 Aug 2025 - Serie A
24 Aug 2025 - Serie A
21 Aug 2025 - Conference League
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
5 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
AC Milan vs Fiorentina Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
17 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
5 Apr 2025 - Serie A
6 Oct 2024 - Serie A
30 Mar 2024 - Serie A
25 Nov 2023 - Serie A
4 Mar 2023 - Serie A
13 Nov 2022 - Serie A
AC Milan - Fiorentina: Form Analysis
AC Milan’s season started with a surprise defeat to newly promoted Cremonese. That 2-1 loss served as a wake-up call for Milan, who do not have continental assignments owing to last season’s performance.
Milan followed on from that defeat with four straight wins, sending them to the top of the league table. They included victories against Bologna and Napoli.
However, before the October international break, wastefulness in attack saw their good run grind to a halt. They drew 0-0 with Juventus in a match that had Christian Pulisic miss a penalty.
That result turned costly in the tight Serie A race. Napoli and Roma took full advantage, with wins that pushed Milan from top to third.
Fiorentina will be banking on recent form against Milan to bounce back!
Fiorentina are enduring a nightmare start to a season that was billed to carry much promise. Juggling between Europe and domestic action shouldn’t be a problem for La Viola.
They’ve failed to replicate in Serie A their performances in the Conference League. As such, they are one of the four sides without a win after six matches.
Their last outing was at home to high-flying AS Roma, which ended in a 2-1 defeat, a third loss in the season. Fiorentina’s list of the last nine matches has three wins, but those were all Conference League matches.
The visitors are unbeaten in the last two matches against Milan.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
AC Milan against Fiorentina Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 1 - 1
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Missing players
L. Torriani
DefenderP. Estupinan
MidfielderA. Jashari
A. Rabiot
ForwardC. Pulisic
T. Lamptey
ForwardC. Kouame
AC Milan & Fiorentina Squad Analysis
Both teams will be taking stock of their players’ health after the international break, each hoping to have their best men available.
However, Milan fans will not like the reports coming out in that area. Christian Pulisic, who has been superb for the Serie A giants, is set to miss about two weeks of action with a heel injury.
He sustained that while away with the United States, in a friendly against Australia. The American has six goal contributions and is the league’s joint leading scorer, currently on four goals.
Adrien Rabiot is also coming from international duty with injury. Said to have muscle pain, the Frenchman could be out for up to 30 days. He has one assist for Milan and is also from scoring in the international break
Alexis Saelemaekers is likely to be the player called up by Milan as a replacement for Pulisic.
Fiorentina forward Moise Kean has this season won more matches with the national team than his club.
The 25-year-old is coming from a scoring outing in the international break and will hope to extend the same here. He has now scored in back-to-back matches at the club and international level.
Though he only got his first Serie A goal of the season in the last match, the Italian already has an xG of 3.01. He has attempted 20 shots in Serie A so far.
Most goals and assists
AC Milan
Fiorentina
C. Pulisic
(4 Goals)
R. Mandragora
(2 Goals)
C. Pulisic
(2 Assists)
H. Caviglia
(1 Assists)
,
C. Ndour
(1 Assists)
, 
A. Gudmundsson
(1 Assists)
AC Milan - Fiorentina Key Points
- Milan have registered five wins in his last six matches.
- In their eight matches this season, Milan suffered just one loss.
- Across all competitions, Milan won each of their last three home matches.
- Fiorentina won just three of their opening nine matches this season.
- Fiorentina are winless in their six league matches so far.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction
Fiorentina avoided defeat in their two meetings with Milan last season. They will be hoping to pull out another gritty performance to mask their poor start. The three wins in their list for the season were all in Europe. Their form in Serie A has been poor, and this may be the week they drop into the red zone.
Milan are operating from much higher ground, with wins in five of their last six matches. They have the momentum and are playing at home too. Our prediction for AC Milan v Fiorentina is that AC Milan wins the match.
AC Milan vs Fiorentina - Other Interesting Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
Milan are coming from a tough match with Juventus in which they failed to score. That was partly their own undoing, as with sharper reactions they would have collected three points in the game. That said, we expect some tweaking here and there from both teams, and this could lead to a high-scoring encounter.
Three of Milan’s last four matches had over 2.5 goals. Three of the last five meetings between these teams also had over 2.5 goals. Our second prediction for this match will be for over 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis AC Milan Fiorentina
| AC Milan vs Fiorentina | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan wins | 1.67 | 1.73 | +3.6% |
| Draw | 4 | 3.6 | -10.0% |
| Fiorentina wins | 4.5 | 5 | +11.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- AC Milan is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 3.6% since opening
- The probability of this result was 59.9% and is now 57.8% (-2.1%)
Use £/€50 free bets for the AC Milan vs. Fiorentina game!
Are you planning to bet on the upcoming match between AC Milan and Fiorentina? Why not take advantage of the free bets from Bet365? Use our promo code STYVIP1 and open your account. Bet365 offers a welcome package of €/£50 free bet credits if you bet €/£10 as a new player.
Try your luck on this year's Serie A! You need to make your qualifying bet of €/£10 within 30 days of opening an account and this can be on any sport with at least one selection priced at 1.2 (1/5) or bigger.
AC Milan vs Fiorentina match : Frequently asked questions
The Milan v Fiorentina match will be played on Sunday, 19th October.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
