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Best ATP Finals Betting Odds (ATP)

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Best Nitto ATP Finals Betting Odds

The Nitto ATP Finals is the culmination of a long ATP Tour season and represents the most important tournament outside of the four Grand Slams. It is contested on the indoor hard courts of the Pala Alpitour in Turin, Italy in mid-November and spans one week. Qualifying for the event is not easy as only the top-eight ranked players at the end of the year are chosen. Those eight players then battle it out in a round-robin group stage format with the top two finishers of each group advancing to form the semi-finals. The ATP Finals is a coveted trophy as many view it as proof of being the most consistent player on the Tour over the last 12 months.

Interested in betting on this can’t miss competition? Before you get started, it’s important to have a solid understanding of what betting odds are and how they work. So, what are betting odds? Odds are simply a numerical representation of the likelihood of an event occurring. They are determined by the bookmakers and are designed to attract betting action on both sides of the same bet. As a general rule of thumb: the lower the odds (e.g. 1.50), the more likely that event will occur. Likewise, the higher the odds (e.g. 5.50) the less likely it is of that outcome taking place. They also allow users to quickly determine how much they stand to win from a given bet, which we’ll explore in more detail in a bit. 

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How are Nitto ATP Finals odds calculated?

Sportsbooks have a variety of tools that they use to determine the betting lines that they set. They use a combination of statistics, historical data, advanced algorithms and trends to arrive at a number they feel will be most beneficial. Bookmakers also factor in how much betting action they anticipate to receive on each side when setting the odds.

As an example, let’s consider the matchup between Novak Djokovic and Holger Rune. Djokovic is a living legend who is still very much at the top of his game. The Serbian is the world number one ranked player and finished the ATP qualifying period as the number one seed. Holger Rune is an exciting talent and has done superbly well to even qualify for the ATP Finals. However, making his debut at this competition and at just 20 years of age, is still a long way off of the ability that his opponent possesses. Naturally, given the experience and talent gap, it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise to learn that Djokovic is heavily favored to get the win. The 36-year-old would therefore have very low betting odds (1.20 in this case), while Rune would be a sizable underdog to pull off the upset (4.50).

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Rising popularity of live betting

Live betting is said to account for over 30% of all bets placed online. It’s fast becoming one of the most popular avenues for punters to place their bets and is an integral part of an online betting sites offering. Due to the sheer number of events offered on live betting platforms, bookmakers have to incorporate automated systems to adjust the betting odds in real time. The odds will change based on the action that is unfolding on the court or the pitch. For example, Should Novak Djokovic have lost the first set in his match against Rune, the odds for the Serbian to win would have reacted accordingly, potentially rising to 2.10 or a similar price. Likewise, the odds for Rune to win would have dropped significantly, possibly coming in at 1.70. You can take advantage of our Livescore feature to gain an advantage when placing your next live bets! 

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What are Nitto ATP Finals odds used for?

There are a couple of practical ways to apply our knowledge of odds and the betting markets to benefit our sports betting results. The first, and most immediate, is that betting odds can be used as a quick way for bettors to calculate how much they stand to win from a given bet. This is achieved by using the formula: - stake = net profit. It’s a quite intuitive formula and one that you will quickly get used to if you spend an extended period of time making bets. For example, a successful €100 bet at odds of 1.75 would return a total of €175, minus the initial stake (€100), leaving you with the net profit of €75. It’s important to understand that different betting sites will offer different odds for the same bet. This means that shopping around for the best possible price can have a huge influence on your overall profitability.

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Large discrepancy in the odds

Betting odds can also be used to determine whether a bet is worth taking or not. If we think back to the Djokovic vs Rune match, let’s say you did your analysis of the matchup and determined that Djokovic should understandably be the heavy favorite. However, when you go to check the odds, you see that the average current price for the dominant Serbian is 1.80 to get the win while Rune is 2.05.

This should immediately throw up a red flag and tell you that you likely missed something in your research and analysis. Based on the overall ability and results of the two players, the odds for the winner of this match should not be this close in your estimation. It’s now up to you to find out the cause for such a large discrepancy. Did Djokovic announce he was going to play through a substantial injury that will affect his performance? Is the match being played on a different surface than what you had initially accounted for? You’ll have to consider all angles in situations such as these.

Identifying value bets

Using the same match, let’s assume you did your due diligence like in the previous example and you conclude that Holger Rune has a 30% chance to defeat the world number one ranked player. A 30% implied probability converts to around 3.33 in betting odds while the bookmaker's price of 4.50 implies a 22.22% chance of occurring. In this type of situation, the odds aren’t so drastically different that they would require a complete reassessment of the match. According to the analysis that you have performed in this scenario, there is a good amount of value in backing the young Dane to grab the upset. This same method should be applied to all bets that you make; compare the possibility of success that you have determined and match it up against the odds that the bookmakers are offering. Don’t hesitate to lock in your bet when you think you’ve identified a value bet! 

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Register everywhere!

The final piece of advice that we can give is one of the most important. In order to have lasting success in sports betting, it’s crucial that you are consistently able to lock in the best possible odds on the market for the bet that you are going to make. This requires registering with as many betting sites as possible to ensure that you have the widest selection pool to choose from. You could find the same bet over at bet365 for odds of 1.95 while the initial price that you saw over on 1xBet 1.85. While it may not seem like a significant amount at first glance, this kind of difference adds up when performed over the course of an entire season, or an entire year.

Bookmakers can sometimes vary as much as 10% in their betting odds for the same bet. Grabbing the 1.95 instead of the 1.85 would result in an extra €500 over the course of 50 €100 wagers. This can be the difference between winding up as a winner at the end of the day or in the red!

The other benefit of registering with many different bookmakers is that it allows you to take advantage of the welcome bonuses. Betting sites will almost always offer some type of sign-up offer, which can be as high as 100% matched deposit bonuses. If you are planning to bet at a reasonably high volume for an extended period of time, you would be potentially leaving a lot of money on the table by passing up on these. Check out our top online betting sites for our thoughts on the best offers currently out there.

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