NBA Western Conference Finals: Timberwolves' Defense Faces Ultimate Test Against Thunder’s Offense
by Joseph King | by Joseph King
OKC and Minnesota meet in the playoffs with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line. For Minnesota, their path this season saw them knock out a few legends of the game in LeBron’s Lakers and Steph’s Warriors en route to their second consecutive appearance in the WCF.
Now, they’ll face their biggest test yet against the powerhouse Thunder, who have been the perennial favorites for the majority of the 2024/25 campaign. The Timberwolves are one of only six teams to never have made it to the NBA Finals, while the Thunder last made it to the big stage in 2012 during the KD, Westbrook, Harden era. Check out our NBA predictions for breakdowns on the Western and Eastern Conference Finals!
All eyes on Ant vs SGA
The draw of this series will undoubtedly be the matchup between the Timberwolves’ 23-year-old superstar Anthony Edwards and the likely league MVP in the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Both players are the focal point of their team’s offense and both lead their respective squads in scoring.
Here’s a look at both players’ production this season, including their playoff numbers up to this point:
Anthony Edwards:
- 2024-25 Regular season: 27.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.5 APG on 44.7/39.5/83.7 shooting splits
- 2024-25 Playoffs: 26.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 5.9 APG on 44.5/38.5/73.7 shooting splits
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:
- 2024-25 Regular season: 32.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.4 APG on 51.9/37.5/89.8 shooting splits
- 2024-25 Playoffs: 29.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 6.4 APG on 47.8/29.3/85.4 shooting splits
Edwards’ struggles vs OKC
Anthony Edwards has not had a good go of it against the elite Thunder defense this season. He’s scoring 22.3 points per game while shooting an ugly 36.4% from the field and 31.6% from three-point range. He’ll have to improve his play if his Timberwolves are to best this OKC side over the seven game series.
SGA, meanwhile, has torn the T'Wolves defense apart to the tune of 35.0 PPG on 51.1% shooting and a remarkable 55.6% from three. He’s also attempting 12 free throws per game vs Minnesota this season (up from his average of 8.8 attempts per game).
Tale of the tape - Thunder vs Timberwolves
It’s no secret that the Timberwolves are very much a defense-first team and they thrive on that side of the ball. The Thunder, however, are certainly no slouches on that end. In fact, many metrics point to OKC being the league’s very best defensive team.
Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up by comparing their offensive numbers vs the other teams defensive numbers (all numbers taken from the regular season):
| Category (league ranking) | Minnesota defense | OKC offense |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / Points scored | 109.3 (5th) | 120.5 (4th) |
| Defensive rating / offensive rating | 110.8 (6th) | 119.2 (3rd) |
| FG% allowed / FG% for | 46.0% (7th) | 48.2% (7th) |
| 3PT% allowed / 3PT% for | 35.3% (7th) | 37.4% (6th) |
| Blocks + steals / Assist to turnover ratio | 12.9 (15th) | 2.29 (1st) |
| Turnovers forced / Turnovers per game | 14.8 (11th) | 11.7 (1st) |
On the flip side, here’s the Thunder’s defensive numbers and how they stack up against the Timberwolves’ offense:
| Category (league ranking) | OKC defense | Minnesota offense |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed / Points scored | 107.6 (3rd) | 114.3 (13th) |
| Defensive rating / offensive rating | 106.6 (1st) | 115.7 (8th) |
| FG% allowed / FG% for | 43.6% (1st) | 46.8% (16th) |
| 3PT% allowed / 3PT% for | 34.2% (1st) | 37.7% (4th) |
| Blocks + steals / Assist to turnover ratio | 16.0 (1st) | 1.81 (18th) |
| Turnovers forced / Turnovers per game | 16.9 (1st) | 14.5 (18th) |
You can see from the above tables just how many defensive categories the Thunder defense excels at, while also limiting turnovers and getting efficient shots on the offensive end. Expect the Thunder to play their usual disruptive defense, cutting passing lanes and using their length at the rim to force bad shots and turnovers. They’ll then look to push the pace as they are one of the league’s top transition teams (ranking 5th in pace). The Timberwolves, on the other hand, are a more measured team, preferring to set up their half court offense (25th in pace).
Rest advantage for Minnesota
Minnesota will be the more well-rested of the two teams after disposing of the Warriors in just five games. The Thunder, meanwhile, played out a grueling, back-and-forth seven-game series with the Denver Nuggets. The Timberwolves will therefore have five days rest coming into game one while the Thunder will only have had one day to recover.
However, there is certainly a valid debate as to whether teams benefit that much from prolonged rest in the playoffs, compared to teams that keep the rhythm with only a day or two off. For young teams like OKC and Minnesota, the rest factor probably isn’t as significant as it would be for older teams These two teams split the regular season series 2-2, which means that we could be in for a close, competitive series with the potential to go six or even the full seven games.
