Premier League Final Day: Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea Among Teams Battling For Champions League Spots

There’s sure to be plenty of ups-and-downs in matchday 38 for the fans of Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest. An additional allocation by UEFA to the Premier League means that the top five teams now qualify directly for the League Phase of the recently revamped Champions League. Additionally, Tottenham’s win in the Europa League means that there will be a guarantee of six Premier League teams competing in the 2025-26 UCL.

As a reminder, here’s how the Premier League top seven currently looks heading into matchday 38:

* = already qualified for UCL

Manchester City: in the driver’s seat

Points total: 68 (+26 goal differential)

Fixture: Fulham (away)

A point is all that is needed for Pep Guardiola and Co to wrap up a top five spot. Their two point lead and superior goal differential over the rest of the pack puts them in the driver's seat on the final day of the season.

The Citizens will feel confident heading to Craven Cottage, if not simply for their team’s dominance over Fulham over the past decade plus. Man City have won their last 17 straight against the Cottagers across all competitions dating back to 2011.

However, their most recent encounter, a 3-2 home win for City, was far from simple. The Sky Blues had to come from behind after going down 1-0 in the first half. Fulham actually finished the match with a higher expected goals count (2.60 to City’s 1.57) as well as creating five clear cut scoring chances.

Check out our football predictions

Newcastle: Geordies expecting UCL thanks to favorable fixture

Points total: 66 (+22 GD)

Fixture: Everton (home)

Newcastle’s superior goal differential means it's a pretty simple “win and they’re in” situation for the Magpies. They still have routes to the Champions League should they draw (unless Aston Villa win and one of either Chelsea or Forest win) as well as a defeat (would need Villa to lose).

Everton have nothing left to play for while Newcastle have a strong 12-2-4 record at St. James’ Park. The oddsmakers have the home team as heavy favorites, although Newcastle have failed to beat Everton in their last three meetings.

Chelsea: a tough away match for the Blues

Points total: 66 (+20 GD)

Fixture: Nottingham Forest (away)

Undeniably the biggest match of the weekend. Chelsea and Nottingham Forest go head-to-head at the City Ground. For Chelsea, a win guarantees them a spot in the top five. Should they draw, they could still find themselves finishing in the top five unless both Newcastle win or draw and Aston Villa win. A loss here would make things tricky, as they would need Aston Villa to lose and Newcastle to suffer a heavy loss at home against Everton.

As evidenced in our Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction, a cagey match is expected.

Based on the head-to-head results between these two sides in recent years, this could be a toss up.

• Chelsea 1-1 Nottingham Forest (06 October 2024)
• Nottingham Forest 2-3 Chelsea (11 May 2024)
• Chelsea 0-1 Nottingham Forest (02 September 2023)
• Chelsea 2-2 Nottingham Forest (13 May 2023)
• Nottingham Forest 1-1 Chelsea (01 January 2023)

Aston Villa: must-win match at Old Trafford

Points total: 66 (+9 GD)

Fixture: Man United (away)

Their goal differential (+9) compared with Chelsea’s (+20) and Newcastle’s (+22), means the Villans likely must earn all three points if they want a shot at qualification for the UCL. They don’t control their own destiny as even with the three points at Old Trafford, they would still need either a Man City loss, or for Newcastle/Chelsea to drop points.

As discussed in our Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction, should Villa draw with United on Sunday then they would need Newcastle to lose as heavy favorites at home to Everton. A loss eliminates Unai Emery’s men from top five contention. With the Red Devils reeling after a devastating loss in the Europa League final, the visitors come in as firm favorites to get the job done.

Nottingham Forest: odds against the Tricky Trees

Points total: 65 (+13 GD)

Fixture: Chelsea (home)

Like Villa, Nottingham Forest will need assistance if they are to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in 45 years. First things first: Forest have to win on Sunday.

Should they beat Chelsea, they’ll need either Newcastle or Aston Villa to drop points.

Complicating things is the fact that the oddsmakers have the Reds as underdogs, despite playing this fixture at home. It starts to become clearer when assessing Forest’s performances this season. They’ve cooled off, managing just two wins in the last eight across all competitions. They’ve also performed slightly better this season as the away side (33 points vs 32 points at home).

See our Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction