Nottingham Forest vs Porto: Can The Tricky Trees Escape Wrath of Dragons to Reach UEL Semis?

by Geoffrey Ejiga | by Geoffrey Ejiga

image Nottingham Forest vs Porto: Can The Tricky Trees Escape Wrath of Dragons to Reach UEL Semis?
Nottingham and Porto are back to settle their 1-1 stalemate in England. Forest practically escaped in the first leg thanks to a 13th-minute equaliser. They now bring the war to their turf in hopes of settling things on a ground where the Dragons lost 2-0 earlier in the league phase. But can Nottingham keep scaling through after questionable performances against Portugal’s finest team this season? Let’s find out!

The Weight on Vitor Pereira’s Shoulders

Forest, who finished 7th in the Premier League last season, is having a season they couldn’t imagine a year ago. From just one point off the Champions League qualification to now just two points off relegation in the following season.

Club owner, Evangelos Marinakis, has moved through a record of four permanent head coaches this season to bring stability back to The Tricky Trees. And now the ball is in Vitor Pereira’s court. It’s his job now to not only navigate a tricky relegation battle but also lead Nottingham to the Europa League Final.

And you can only imagine them doing so if they beat Porto, who have lost only two of a staggering 40 games this season.

Anyone could've ruled out a relegation-battling Forest against one of Europe’s best this season. That is, if Nottingham wasn’t responsible for one of Porto’s only two defeats.

Porto vs. Nottingham Forest: 1st Leg Stats

StatisticFC PortoNottingham Forest
Score11
Shots (Total)166
Big Chances51
Possession52%48%
Expected Goals (xG)2.160.45
Saves27

Porto: Why the Dragons Struggle in the Forest

Against a team that’s been as underwhelming as Nottingham this season, you won’t expect an almost invincible Porto side to struggle so much. In truth, Dragões absolutely dominated the first leg, forcing Forest keeper Stefan Ortega to 7 saves that crowned him man of the match.

But beyond luck, Forest also forced a highly physical, compact, and defensive play that relied heavily on aerial strength and organised low-blocks. Essentially, Porto have found a team that can outmatch them physically and are yet to find an answer.

The game plan that produced 5 big unconverted chances will likely remain the dominant approach for Porto. However, in front of opposing fans and a relentless Nottingham team, execution might be a problem just as in the league phase meeting where Porto produced 0 big chances.

The “X” Factors That Could Decide This Game

We’ve identified three major factors that could determine if the Forest will be left standing after Dragões’ flight:

  • The Ortega Factor: After a 7-save masterclass in the first leg, can Stefan Ortega maintain that level of concentration under the lights at the City Ground?
  • Set-Piece Sovereignty: All three goals Forest have scored against Porto this season came from set pieces. Two penalties in the league phase encounter and one own goal from a free kick in the first leg.
  • Midfield Reinforcements: With Elliot Anderson returning from suspension for Forest, the midfield battle against Porto’s Alan Varela becomes much more balanced.