Europa League: Manchester United Eye Final Spot After Dominant First-Leg Win Over Athletic
by Joseph King | by Joseph King
Manchester United seeking their second Europa League crown
A first-half capitulation by Athletic Club has put Manchester United on the brink of a spot in the Europa League final, where they’ll take on either Tottenham or Bodo/Glimt. For more on that matchup, be sure to check out our Europa League predictions.
The Red Devils have a strong pedigree in club knockout tournaments and have won eight European titles in their history. This includes three Champions League trophies (1968, 1999, 2008) as well as their sole Europa League title which came in 2017. Additionally, they finished as runners-up in this competition back in 2021, when they lost out to Villarreal on penalties.
Athletic's nightmare first half at San Mames
It was only Athletic Club's third loss of the season at their home ground across all competitions, and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. In the span of just 15 minutes, Athletic went from level to down three goals with a man sent off.
The Basque side is, by all accounts, having an excellent season. They’re on course to lock up a top-four finish in La Liga and made a European semi-final for the first time since finishing as runners up in this competition in 2012. That only reinforces how impressive the first leg performance was by Manchester United.
No team has managed to overturn a 3-0 deficit after losing the first leg at home.
History is firmly in the corner of Ruben Amorim’s side now. 133 times in European knockout football has a team gone up 3-0 away from home in the first leg. In all 133 of those instances, no team has ever managed to come back and advance. That’s the obstacle facing Athletic Club on Thursday. As if things weren’t hard enough for Los Leones, they could be without two of their best players in Oihan Sancet and Nico Williams.
Can the Red Devils salvage their season?
With Manchester United having an abysmal domestic season - currently sitting 15th in the Premier League - the fans, players and the manager have all turned their full focus to the Europa League. It not only represents a European title, but perhaps just as (if not more) importantly, will see them secure a 2025/26 Champions League spot.
United are in desperate need of the windfall that accompanies a spot in UEFA’s top flight competition. There are reports that failure to do so would leave the Red Devils £100 million in the hole.
United a transformed team in the Europa League
United have been a completely different team in Europe this season. Check out the gulf in their statistics between their performances in the Premier League compared to the Europa League below:
| UEFA Europa League | Premier League | |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W-D-L) | 8-5-0 | 10-9-16 |
| Goals per match | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Possession | 57.9 | 53.2 |
| Shots on target per 90 | 6.5 | 4.5 |
| Expected goals differential per 90 | +0.94 | -0.11 |
United ranks as the leading scorers in the competiiton and are by far the leaders in expected goal differential per 90 (next highest is Olympiacos at +0.61 xG). There is an improvement in their numbers across the board in the Europa League when compared to their Premier League performance. As a result, the oddsmakers are currently favoring the Red Devils to capture the UEL crown this season.
With their commanding three-goal advantage, the return leg seems nothing more than a formality. It would take something truly never before seen by Athletic Club if they are to advance to the final.
