2026 World Cup: Four Dark Horses to Watch

by Joseph King | by Joseph King

image 2026 World Cup: Four Dark Horses to Watch
The 2026 World Cup is now only a few days away! To prepare, we're taking a look at four teams seen as outsiders by many but who each could spring a few surprises in this new 48-team expanded format.

Colombia: Set up to entertain

Fast Facts

  • FIFA Ranking: 13th
  • Qualification: 3rd in CONMEBOL (7W-7D-4L, +10 GD)
  • 2026 WC Group: K (Portugal, Uzbekistan, DR Congo)
  • Key player: Luis Diaz 
  • Outright odds: 40/1 (Stake)

The case for “Los Cafeteros”

Colombia are certainly not a defense-first side, as they proved in 2026 World Cup qualifying by conceding 18 times, the most of all six qualifying teams in the region. They instead rely on the trio of Luis Diaz, Luis Suarez and the ever-present James Rodriguez to provide a direct attacking threat that is at its most dangerous in transition.

And while Diaz is undoubtedly the main-man in this attack, James’ impact cannot be overstated. The 34-year-old is nearing the end of his career at the club level, but has consistently proven to be a key figure on the international stage. Rodriguez won player of the tournament at the 2024 Copa America, breaking Messi’s single tournament assist record (6) and leading Colombia to the final. His numbers in the qualifying stage for the World Cup were impressive, as he led the region in key passes (61) and expected assists (6.77).

Their group draw gives them an excellent chance at progressing to the knockout stages, and it wouldn’t come as a huge shock if they beat out Portugal for the top spot. Do that and they would (likely) end up on the opposite side of the bracket from tournament co-favourites Spain and France.

Realistic finish

If Colombia can get into a rhythm and have their star trio playing at their best, this is a team with the potential to knock off some of the very top teams in the tournament. Their 28-game unbeaten run from March 2022 to July 2024 shows what this team is capable of. However, they tend to be a team which blows hot and cold. Should everything fall into place for Nestor Lorenzo’s side, a semi-final berth is possible. Their floor, meanwhile, is likely a round of 16 elimination.

Switzerland: Dependable and experienced

Fast Facts

  • FIFA Ranking: 19th
  • Qualification: 1st in UEFA Group B (4W-2D-0L, +12 GD)
  • 2026 WC Group: B (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Canada, Qatar)
  • Key player: Granit Xhaka
  • Outright odds: 80/1 (Stake)

The case for “Nati”

Switzerland is gearing up for its seventh consecutive major tournament across the World Cup and Euros. They’ve been a highly consistent nation over the last decade, progressing from the group stage in the last six straight tournaments that they’ve played in.

Yakin’s side boasts a great mix of seasoned veterans and talented young players. Sunderland’s Granit Xhaka, who continues to age like a fine wine, is the heartbeat of this team. Other notable names include Manuel Akanji, Dan Ndoye, Gregor Kobel, Noah Okafor and highly-coveted young midfielders Ardon Jashari and Johan Manzambi.

Switzerland have received one of the softer draws in Group B with co-hosts Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Qatar. The expectation and most likely outcome, is for the Swiss to win the group, where they would face off against a best third-placed team in the round of 32. However, even if they were to finish 2nd, they would still receive a favourable draw as they would face the runner-up in Group A (Mexico, South Korea, Czechia, South Africa).

Realistic finish

Switzerland's overall draw in this tournament gives them a high floor.

They possess one of the cleanest paths on the board of getting to the round of 16, and thus a real shot at going even deeper.

From there, Nati has shown in recent years that they possess the guile and know-how to give any big nation a run for their money. The value exists in backing this Swiss side to reach the round of 16 or the quarter-finals.

Turkey: Guler and Yildiz to turn heads

'Turkey's

Fast Facts

  • FIFA Ranking: 22nd
  • Qualification: 2nd in UEFA Group E (4W-1D-1L, +5 GD), beat Kosovo 1-0 in Playoff final
  • 2026 WC Group: D (USA, Paraguay, Australia)
  • Key player: Arda Guler
  • Outright odds: 80/1 (Stake)

The case for “The Crescent Stars”

Turkey are one of the most intriguing teams in the tournament. They possess what may very well be the best young attacking duo with Real Marid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz. With experienced midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu pulling the strings from deep, this is a Turkish side that will feel they can go toe-to-toe with the big boys when it comes to scoring goals.

There are serious questions to be raised over the defense, which allowed 12 goals in six qualifying games and was pummeled 6-0 by Spain on home soil in September of 2025. However, it’s the draw and potential path for the Crescent Stars which has us marking them as a dark horse to keep an eye on.

Turkey were drawn into what is arguably the most evenly-balanced group of the 2026 World Cup with the USA, Paraguay and Australia. The USA is favoured to win the group, but Turkey is not far behind. A first-place finish in the group and they would meet up with a best third-place team in the round of 32. A runner-up finish and they would still be in a strong position, drawn against the runner-up of Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand).

Realistic finish

Similarly to Switzerland, Turkey has a clear path to the round of 16. They perhaps aren’t as complete a side as the Swiss, and this would give them a slightly lower floor at the round of 32. The ceiling for the Crescent Stars is the quarter-finals, which they can certainly obtain should they win their group.

Ecuador: Defense wins championships

Ecuador's Paez

Fast Facts

  • FIFA Ranking: 23rd
  • Qualification: 2nd in CONMEBOL (8W-8D-2L, +9 GD)
  • 2026 WC Group: E (Germany, Ivory Coast, Curacao)
  • Key player: Moises Caicedo 
  • Outright odds: 80/1 (Stake)

The case for “La Tri”

Ecuador has been synonymous with defense for the last few years. You need look no further than their impeccable defensive qualifying record, where they conceded an incredible 5 goals in 18 matches in the notoriously tough CONMEBOL region. There are some definite concerns over the attack though, which scored just 14 goals in those 18 qualifying matches.

However, there are a few things working in La Tri’s favour in the 2026 World Cup. Namely, the conditions.

The heat and humidity of a blazing North American summer will be a real factor in this tournament.

This gives strong, compact defensive teams a natural advantage, as players are going to tire out much quicker, which can impact attacking play and teams that employ a high press.

For Ecuador, they thrive in a compact shape. With players like PSG’s Willian Pacho, Arsenal’s Piero Hincapie, Club Brugge’s Joel Ordóñez and Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo, La Tri are an absolute nightmare to try to break down. This profiles them well for knockout tournament football; they won’t be chasing the high-scoring types of wins. Instead, expect to see plenty of 0-0 and 1-0 scorelines for this squad. They may need a penalty shootout or two, but this is a team with real upset potential and one that could surprise more than a few people with a deep run.

Realistic finish

While they may not score many goals, this is going to be one of the toughest teams to score against in North America’s tournament. That alone gives them a relatively high floor, with a spot in the Round of 32 the bare-minimum expectation. As for their ceiling, they top out at around the quarter-final range, where their lack of goals may ultimately catch up to them.