The Kentucky Derby: Favourites and Stats For First Leg of the Triple Crown

Journalism Installed as Antepost Favourite for 2025 Kentucky Derby 

The Grade 1 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 3, at the historic Churchill Downs, with 20 three-year-old Thoroughbreds hoping to earn a share of the $5 million up for grabs. 

Just as was the case last year, the winning jockey and horse combination will receive a whopping $3.1 million, while the second-place finisher receives $1 million, the third gets $500,000, the fourth earns $250,000, and the fifth goes home with $150,000. 

Here are the current favourites for the Kentucky Derby, along with a couple of potential outsiders to keep an eye on. 

8. Journalism - Umberto Rispoli (3/1 F)

Leading up to the big race, Journalism is currently showing up as the out-and-out favourite according to all the best online betting sites, and for good reason, given his excellent form coming into it. The  Michael McCarthy-trained runner has four career wins in five starts, including three in a row in California before a stunning finish at the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where he won by three-quarters of a length. Journalism has the fastest speed figures in the race and gets the services of Umberto Rispoli, who he has responded well to in the past. The only concern for the current market leader is that he has not run in a field of this size, with his three stake wins coming against 12 competitors, but there is widespread consensus that he could be the most predictable headline-maker on Saturday.

18. Sovereignty - Junior Alvarado (5/1)

Sovereignty is familiar with conditions at Churchill Downs, having claimed his maiden win at the course in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes in October 2024. This year, Bill Mott’s colt stepped it up a notch to win the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes before coming up just short of Tappan Street at the Florida Derby. Notably, though, Sovereignty lost the Florida Derby without his regular jockey Junior Alvarado in the saddle, but the pair are back together for this weekend. Alvarado will have his work cut out from the number 18 post, but if he can position Sovereignty well leading to the closing stages, this horse loves a charge and will enjoy the long stretch at Churchill Downs. 

17. Sandman - Jose Ortiz (6/1) 

While there was plenty of speculation over Mark Casse’s claims that Sandman needed added distance, all of that clamour was squashed when he came from eighth in a nine-horse field to win the 1 ⅛ Arkansas Derby by two and a half lengths. Jose Ortiz gets the ride after steering Sandman to the winner’s circle at the Arkansas Derby, but he faces a tougher task here coming from the number 17 post. The key for Ortiz will be to get Sandman to settle early to avoid any zig-zagging as we saw last time out, while he may also need to push the button on him a little earlier, given that there will be a lot more obstacles in this large field. 

9. Burnham Square - Brian Hernandez Jr. - (12/1)

The final two horses that we will take a look at in more detail are longer shots in the betting markets, but we feel they could pose the greatest threat to the market leaders. Starting with Burnham Square, who is progressing nicely and ticks all the right boxes coming into this race. He has been training brilliantly and ran fourth in the Fountain of Youth before a stunning win at the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in early April. Additionally, he has cracked a favourable draw from gate nine and will have the services of Brian Hernandez Jr, who won the Derby last year with Mystik Dan. This feels like a runner that you simply cannot afford to leave out of any tickets. 

14. Tiztastic - Joel Roasario (20/1)

The final runner that we are hoping will make it into the fray to boost tickets in our Kentucky Derby predictions is the Steve Asmussen-trained Tiztastic at a very tempting 20/1. This runner struggled to get into the race initially, but secured his spot by winning the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby by 2 ½ lengths with Hall of Famer Joel Rosario aboard. Rosario has kept the mount for this race, which is a major positive for Tiztastic, whose turn of foot down the straight is enough to go eyeball to eyeball with the best around. With six placements in eight starts, this could be the lurker in the group and a potentially profitable cheeky punt each way. 

2025 Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds

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