Betway Summer Cup 2025 Tips: Doubts Rise Over The Equator’s Credentials, Lurkers Represent Value
by Devesh Jaganath | by Devesh Jaganath
5 The Equator (22/10) - Gavin Lerena
The Equator will step out for the 2025 Betway Summer Cup as the favourite and has been holding firm in the market since the Summer Cup betting odds opened on Monday morning. He is a five-year-old with a merit rating of 117, carrying 55kg and gets a good draw from barrier three. The Tony Peter and Gavin Lerena combination is another major tick in the right box.
However, the odds of 22/10 for this runner are truly baffling for us. Indeed, The Equator has won back-to-back races at the course, but both were in plated events, and given his weight last time out, he was expected to go on to win, but by no means did he leave the rest behind.
In his last race, The Equator beat James Crawford’s Beynac, who is rated 92 and sets off as an 8/1 shot in the Betway Consolation at 52.5kg. The question here is: if Beynec made the Summer Cup field at 1.5kg better off than his last run, where would he be in the betting market? We reckon at last 18/1 - and that for us suggests that 22/10 about The Equator is almost ludicrous to consider as value.
Indeed, there is a lot to like about The Equator too - he is a lovely sort and quickened well over the mile last time out. Still, this feels like his first true test at an elite level, and based on credentials, we’re giving the current market leader a Place Chance at best.
3 King Pelles - (4/1) S’manga Khumalo
Gareth van Zyl’s five-year-old stayer King Pelles is drawn in barrier 11 and carries 57.5kg for the Betway Summer Cup. He gets the services of champion jockey S’manga Khumalo and has had what many consider the perfect preparation coming into this weekend’s main race.
King Pelles won his last two starts over 2000m, and while his most recent prep runs were shorter at 1600m, he finished in eye-catching fashion, especially at Greyville, where he overcame a poor start, losing two lengths out the gate, to mow down the opposition down the straight.
He has already recorded wins over 2400m, 3000m, and 3200 (including the Kwa-Zulu Natal Derby, Gold Vase and Gold Cup), which further illustrate that the trip at Turffontein will not be a problem - in fact, one could argue that it enhances his chances, given his performances over longer trips. This is one you cannot leave out of any bets.
1 Atticus Finch - (7/1) Calvin Habib
Returning to defend his crown at the Betway Summer Cup is the Alec Laird-trained Atticus Finch, who cracked a fantastic draw at barrier 2. However, after winning the Grade 2 Allied Steelrode-Onamission Charity Mile last time out, he has been handed a 6-point Merit Rating penalty (now MR 127), and as a result, will have to carry the top weight of 60kg.
There is no doubt that Atticus Finch is a better horse this year compared to last - but is he 6kg better - the jury is still out on that! The major factor to consider here is that this horse has been incredible since being fitted with blinkers and was running away from opposition at the end of the Charity Mile last time out. This is also his third run after a rest, meaning he should be in sensational shape for his title defence.
2 Royal Victory - (25/1) Nathan Kotzen
The final runner for the 2025 Betway Summer Cup that we’ve picked out is Nathan Kotzen’s six-year-old Royal Victory, who gets the ride of Chad Little. Drawn in barrier 14 is not ideal, nor is his weight at 59kg, but he won this race spectacularly in 2023, and while he finished sixth last year, most would agree that he did not get the run of the race.
Royal Victory is a course and distance specialist and grows an extra leg every time he steps out at Turffontein. Interestingly, the yard has opted to refit the blinkers on him despite him not taking to it at the Durban July, and he is well-known for having troubles maintaining focus and getting to the starting gate, especially in front of big crowds.
What stands out for us with Royal Victory - he is by no means a 25/1 shot - which is fantastic news for punters. That is further underlined when considering that he has two Group 1 wins under his belt, while the market leader, The Equator, has won a Graduation Plate and goes off at 22/10. Add to that, Nathan Kotzen has worked tirelessly to get him to peak, and he is now attempting his third run after a rest: Do not leave Royal Victory out of any bets this weekend!
Our Top Picks for Betway Summer Cup 2025
To summarise our thoughts for the 2025 Betway Summer Cup - we’ll start off by saying that the current market leader, The Equator, is far too short-priced to consider value for this year’s main race. This is not the strongest field we have seen in recent years, and there is plenty of value elsewhere, especially for a top-four placement.
We make King Pelles a huge runner in this race, and for us, what beats him will win the 2025 Betway Summer Cup. We’re going with Gareth van Zyl’s stayer as our best pick (E/W) for the main race, followed by last year’s champion Atticus Finch to go back-to-back.
In terms of value, we cannot overlook Royal Victory - a course and distance specialist trained by Nathan Kotzen, who knows how to get his runners ready for the big day. With two Group 1 wins under his belt, on his third run after a rest, and carrying tantalising 25/1 betting odds and 4/1 for a place, Royal Victory is one that you dare not leave out of anything!
Best Bet (NAP) - King Pelles - Each-way (25/10)
Next Best (NB) - Atticus Finch - Win (7/1)
Value Pick - Royal Victory - Place 4 (4/1)
