USA vs Belgium Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in World Cup Predictions
Lumen Field in Seattle will be packed to the rafters this week when the USA take on Belgium in the Round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup. USMNT and the Red Devils are averaging over two goals per game in this competition, and our prediction is that they both get on the scoresheet in this one.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side made it a 100% success rate for the co-host nations reaching the last 16 by beating Bosnia & Herzegovina in their first game of the knockout stage. That victory was also the first time that the Stars and Stripes won a sudden-death tie in 24 years since reaching the quarter-finals in 2002 in Japan.
Despite being seven places above the Americans in the global rankings, Belgium are marginal underdogs entering this contest. However, Rudi Garcia’s side will have momentum behind them following their dramatic comeback victory over Senegal at this venue last week. This looks like one of the most even contests of the RO16 on paper - let’s get into the key stats!
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USA v Belgium Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6 | 3.75 | 2.75 |
|
|
2.64 | 3.26 | 2.95 |
|
|
2.55 | 3.19 | 2.89 |
|
|
2.55 | 3.36 | 2.76 |
|
|
2.6 | 3.3 | 2.95 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between USA and Belgium?
Our prediction for the USA vs Belgium match is: BTTS.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/07/2026 between USA and Belgium in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 31.19% for a win of USA against Belgium with odds of 1001 at Betway.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between USA vs Belgium is 20.32% with odds of 151 at Betway.
- Our prediction model gives a 48.49% chance ⭐ for a win of Belgium vs USA with odds of 2.95 at 1xbet.
USA - Belgium Prediction and Best Odds:
| USA Belgium Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium wins | 48.49% | 2.95 at 1xbet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.22% | 1.9 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 70.83% | 1.67 at Betway |
| Half-time : USA / Full-time : Belgium | 19.23% | 101 at Betsson |
USA vs Belgium Form
USA and Belgium Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
25 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
12 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
12 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 May 2026 - International Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
25 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2025 - CONCACAF Gold Cup
23 Mar 2025 - CONCACAF Nations League
14 Nov 2024 - CONCACAF Nations League
15 Oct 2024 - International Friendlies
27 Jun 2024 - Copa America
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
1 Jul 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
2 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
USA vs Belgium Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
USA - Belgium: Form Analysis
Team USA came through the group stage of the 2026 World Cup with six points from their three games, beating Paraguay (4-1) and Australia (2-0) before losing their final game 3-2 to Turkiye.
USMNT then produced arguably their best performance of the competition in the Round of 32, beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0. They have scored two or more goals in every match in this competition to date.
The US have now won six and lost four of their last 10 matches across all competitions, and they have conceded in eight games during this period. They are averaging 1.05 xGA per 90 in this competition.
The USA have lost each of their last six matches against Belgium!
Meanwhile, despite topping their group, Belgium were far from convincing. They drew their first two games against Egypt (1-1) and Iran (0-0) before booking their place in the knockouts with a 5-1 victory over New Zealand.
The Red Devils were then on the verge of elimination in the RO32 but managed to overturn a 2-0 deficit to beat Senegal 3-2, thanks to a Youri Tielemans penalty in the fifth minute of stoppage time after extra time.
Belgium are now riding a 17-match unbeaten run (W11 D6) dating back to late March. They are averaging 2.13 xG per 90 in the World Cup this year, while averaging 1.38 xGA.
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USA against Belgium Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 5 - 2
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
C. Brady
M. Turner
DefenderM. Arfsten
J. Scally
M. McKenzie
M. Robinson
A. Trusty
MidfielderS. Berhalter
G. Reyna
B. Aaronson
R. Pepi
T. Weah
A. Zendejas
H. Wright
S. Lammens
M. Penders
DefenderA. Theate
J. Seys
Z. Debast
K. De Winter
T. Meunier
MidfielderA. Saelemaekers
D. Moreira
K. De Bruyne
H. Vanaken
A. Witsel
M. Fernandez-Pardo
J. Doku
R. Lukaku
Missing players
C. Roldan
USA & Belgium Squad Analysis
Folarin Balogun scored the opening goal on the stroke of half-time before getting sent off after trodding on Tarik Muharemovic. However, despite this, his suspension has been overturned, meaning he will be eligible to feature in this match.
Balogun’s absence will be significant as he is the team’s top scorer in this competition with three goals. PSV forward Ricardo Pepi is the most likely to lead the line for tournament co-hosts in this one.
Dodi Lukebakio scored a brace when these sides met in March this year!
The Benfica forward only played 32 minutes during the group stage, but he made an impressive cameo off the bench against Senegal in the last match and could get the nod from the off in this one.
Garcia hooked Charles De Ketelaere at half-time after a poor performance against the Teranga Lions. If that was a sign of things to come, Romelu Lukaku should start in the number nine role here.
Most goals and assists
USA
Belgium
F. Balogun
(3 Goals)
R. Lukaku
(3 Goals)
,
C. De Ketelaere
(3 Goals)
C. Pulisic
(1 Assists)
,
M. Tillman
(1 Assists)
,
A. Freeman
(1 Assists)
,
S. Berhalter
(1 Assists)
L. Trossard
(3 Assists)
USA - Belgium Key Points
- Seven of the USA’s last 10 matches have ended with both teams scoring.
- The USA has scored two or more goals in all four matches in this competition.
- Three of Belgium’s four matches in this competition ended with both teams scoring,
- Belgium has only failed to score in one of their last 11 matches.
- Both teams have scored in each of the last three matches between these sides.
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Our USA vs Belgium Prediction
The USA has been very impressive in attack in this competition, but that has been necessary, as they have shown that they can switch off in defence at times, as we saw against Turkiye in the group stage.
On paper, Belgium has one of the best-looking attacks in world football, and they needed that firepower to get past Senegal in the last round. Given how these sides have performed, we feel there will be plenty of chances created at both ends in this match. Our USA vs Belgium prediction is BTTS.
USA vs Belgium Alternative Predictions
Draw
As the odds suggest, there isn’t a clear favourite in this match. Following from our main prediction, we feel this match will end in a score draw at 90 minutes.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis USA Belgium
| USA vs Belgium | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA wins | 2.5 | 1001 | +39,940.0% |
| Draw | 3.3 | 151 | +4,475.8% |
| Belgium wins | 2.5 | 2.95 | +18.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Belgium is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 18.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 40.0% and is now 33.9% (-6.1%)
USA vs Belgium - FAQs
The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 match between the USA and Belgium will take place on July 7 at 00:00 UTC.
The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 match between the USA and Belgium will be played at Lumen Field in Seattle, USA.
The 2026 World Cup Round of 16 match between the USA and Belgium will be broadcast on Fox Sports (USA) and VRT (Belgium). UK viewers can tune in to the BBC and ITV.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our World Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
