Uruguay vs Spain Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
World - World Cup
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Ita Emmanuel | in World Cup Predictions
Uruguay face a grim challenge to their knockout hopes as they round off their 2026 World Cup group-stage campaign facing Spain on Saturday. Having failed to beat either of the two teams ranked outside the world's top 60 in their opening matches, La Celeste are clear underdogs here against reigning European champions Spain, hence our prediction going against them.
After back-to-back stalemates against World Cup debutants Cape Verde and Asian representatives Saudi Arabia, Uruguay have their 2026 World Cup knockout chances on a knife edge. Anything short of victory could see the two-time champions exit the tournament in the group stages. They hold a finely-balanced record against European teams in the tournament, including 10 wins, eight draws, and 11 defeats, but haven't been largely successful against elite teams from Europe.
Spain atoned for their disappointing opening stalemate against Cape Verde with a commanding victory over Saudi Arabia on Sunday to sixteen leadership of the group. However, La Roja still have a lot to play, holding just a two-point cushion at the top of the standings. They haven't tasted defeat across all seven of their previous meetings with Uruguay. Continue reading as we explore both teams' chances, team news, and other details.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Uruguay v Spain Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5 | 3.1 | 1.85 |
|
|
86 | 7 | 1.1 |
|
|
6.2 | 3.74 | 1.6 |
|
|
6.1 | 3.68 | 1.62 |
|
|
533 | 17 | 1.03 |
|
Pre-register for our Member Area: win €500!
What is the prediction for the football match between Uruguay and Spain?
Our prediction for the Uruguay vs Spain match is: Spain wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/06/2026 between Uruguay and Spain in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 28.94% for a win of Uruguay against Spain with odds of 533 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Uruguay vs Spain is 28.39% with odds of 21 at Betsson.
- Our prediction model gives a 42.67% chance ⭐ for a win of Spain vs Uruguay with odds of 2.67 at Betsson.
Uruguay - Spain Prediction and Best Odds:
| Uruguay Spain Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spain wins | 42.67% | 2.67 at Betsson |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.62% | 41 at Betway |
| Both Team To Score: No | 57.14% | 1.94 at 22bet |
| Half-time / Full-time: Spain/Spain | 20.57% | 3.3 at Stake |
Uruguay vs Spain Form
Uruguay and Spain's standings in the World Cup
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 |
|
3
|
2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 |
Uruguay and Spain Last Matches
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
27 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
10 Jun 2025 - World Cup
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
27 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
13 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
8 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
8 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
27 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
8 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
Uruguay vs Spain Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
Uruguay - Spain: Form Analysis
Uruguay appear set for a disappointing 2026 World Cup campaign. The Sky Blue and White were forced to come from behind to salvage a late draw against Saudi Arabia – a side sitting 45 places below them in the world rankings – in their opening match.
Their disappointing performance continued in their second match on Sunday as they surrendered a one-goal first-half lead to draw debutants and 67th-ranked Cape Verde 2–2, thanks to Helio Varela's equalizer. Aside from those results, more worrying is the fact that Marcelo Bielsa's men couldn't see off both sides sitting well below them in the world rankings in their opening matches. They are now winless in their last six fixtures overall.
Spain have fared relatively better against South American opposition in the World Cup, winning six and drawing three of their 14 meetings with them
Meanwhile, Spain roared back to winning ways against Saudi Arabia in their second match, demolishing the Asian side 4–0, after an opening setback against Cape Verde. That victory not only saw them go top of the group, but extended their unbeaten run to 12 matches.
Nevertheless, the Spaniards are still deep in the race for a place in the knockout stages and will be out for a positive result. They are unbeaten in all seven previous meetings with Uruguay, winning four.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Uruguay against Spain Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Substitutes
S. Mele
S. Rochet
R. Araujo
M. Vina
S. Bueno
J. Gimenez
MidfielderN. de la Cruz
J. Piquerez
E. Martinez
R. Zalazar
G. de Arrascaeta
ForwardB. Rodriguez
F. Pellistri
F. Vinas
R. Aguirre
J. Garcia
D. Raya
DefenderM. Pubill
P. Porro
E. Garcia
A. Grimaldo
MidfielderGavi
M. Zubimendi
F. Ruiz
Y. Pino
N. Williams
V. Munoz
F. Torres
D. Olmo
B. Iglesias
Uruguay & Spain Squad Analysis
Marcelo Bielsa made drastic changes to his starting XI against Cape Verde with Darwin Nunez axed out of the No.9 role for Federico Vinas. Rodrigo Bentancur was deployed as attacking midfielder, leaving Manuel Ugarte as a lone DM, while Juan Sanabria replaced Matias Vina at left back.
Agustin Canobbio is likely to return on the right wing after delivering an impact on his first start in the tournament on Sunday and will feature alongside Federico Valverde in attacking midfield. Meanwhile, the team has both Giorgian de Arrascaeta and Ronald Araujo, who have missed the opening two matches, still unavailable for this clash due to calf injuries.
Lamine Yamal is the second youngest player aged 18 to score the opening goal in a World Cup match after 17-year-old Pele in 1958
Spain improved significantly in their second 2026 World Cup outing after four changes to the side that drew the opening match. Head coach Luis de la Fuente is likely to stick with the winning starting XI against a Uruguay side that could prove their toughest group opponents.
Mikel Oyarzabal is available to spearhead the attack after a brace in the Saudi Arabia rout. Lamine Yamal replaced Ferran Torres and is likely to return to the right wing, with Alex Baena on the left. Rodri and Pedri remain de la Fuente's preferred options in the middle. Pau Cubarsi and Aymeric Laporte will man the center-back positions, with Marc Cucurella and Marcos Llorente/Pedro Porro on left and right back, respectively.
Most goals and assists
Uruguay
Spain
M. Araujo
(2 Goals)
M. Oyarzabal
(5 Goals)
M. Araujo
(1 Assists)
D. Olmo
(2 Assists)
,
M. Cucurella
(2 Assists)
Uruguay - Spain Key Points
- Uruguay have failed to win their opening two matches in the 2026 World Cup, both against lower-ranked teams.
- Uruguay are winless in their last six matches overall.
- Spain are unbeaten in their last 12 matches.
- La Roja haven't lost any of their previous seven meetings with Uruguay.
- Spain won 6 out of their last 10 matches.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Uruguay vs Spain Prediction
After setbacks against teams significantly down the pecking order in world rankings in the group, Uruguay will require something close to a miracle to get a result on Saturday. History is also against them as they haven't won any of their previous meetings with Spain.
Meanwhile, the reigning European champions enter this clash in full confidence after a remarkable win last time out, and will look to continue their fine run spanning 12 straight matches. Our Uruguay vs Spain prediction: Spain wins.
Uruguay vs Spain Alternative Predictions
Draw
Spain remains favorite to win the match as captured in our main prediction, but Uruguay will look to stage a strong resistance with their hopes of progressing to the next round dangerously on the line. A draw is more likely if they manage to frustrate Spain.
Over 2.5 goals
This match pits the two best teams in Group H. With a lot at stake for both, we expect a high-octane and attacking football likely to produce no fewer than three goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Uruguay Spain
| Uruguay vs Spain | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay wins | 5.37 | 533 | +9,825.5% |
| Draw | 3.93 | 21 | +434.4% |
| Spain wins | 1.65 | 2.67 | +61.8% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Spain is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 61.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 60.6% and is now 37.5% (-23.2%)
Uruguay vs Spain - FAQs
The Uruguay vs Spain match will be played on Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 00:00 GMT at the 48,813-capacity Guadalajara Stadium, Zapopan, Mexico.
The match will be streamed live on SuperSport for African watchers, while UK fans can watch it on ITV and TNT. beIN SPORTS will also broadcast the match for viewers and fans in Asia. If you don't have access to a TV, you can easily follow the game thanks to our World Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
