ATP - ATP Shanghai Masters
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by Steve Ashfield | in ATP Shanghai Masters Predictions
Will it be fifth time lucky for Ugo Humbert? The 21st seed has lost all four of his previous matches against 10th-seeded Holger Rune. Now they meet in round three of the Shanghai Masters outdoor hard court tournament. Read our match prediction below.
Ugo Humbert defeated Jordan Thompson to reach this stage. The Frenchman won in straight sets but needed a tie-break in the second. That's taken him to 25th in the live rankings. Before this tournament, he'd lost five of his last six matches and three on this surface.
The 2025 Marseille champion is in the third round of a hard court tournament for only the fifth time this year. Of his four previous losses to Rune, all were played on hard courts (one indoors), most recently a three-set loss at this year's Indian Wells tournament.
Holger Rune is 12th in the live rankings and two places lower in the ATP Race. The 22-year-old has a 19-11 (seven more wins than Humbert) and is bidding to get to round four in Shanghai for the second year in a row.
Rune beat Sebastian Baez in straight sets in round two. He's already reached one ATP Tour hard court final in 2025. That was when being runner-up in Indian Wells. We tip him to defeat Humbert.
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The Best Betting Odds for Ugo Humbert v Holger Rune Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2.5 | 1.53 |
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2.5 | 1.5 |
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2.75 | 1.45 |
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2.5 | 1.48 |
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|
2.6 | 1.5 |
|
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Who will win the Ugo Humbert vs Holger Rune Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Ugo Humbert vs Holger Rune match is: Holger Rune to win.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Ugo Humbert vs Holger Rune game on 05/10/2025 of the current ATP Shanghai Masters season:
- Ugo Humbert has a 32.6% chance to win against Holger Rune according to Betway ⭐ with the odds of 2.75.
- Holger Rune has a 67.4% probability of winning facing Ugo Humbert ⭐ with odds of 1.55 at 22bet.
Ugo Humbert vs Holger Rune Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Ugo Humbert has a 32.6 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Ugo Humbert | 32.6 % |
| Holger Rune | 67.4 % |
Ugo Humbert vs Holger Rune Form
Ugo Humbert and Holger Rune Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
3 Oct 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
24 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
25 Aug 2025 - ATP US Open
11 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
9 Aug 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
1 Jul 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
3 Oct 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
28 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
27 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
25 Sep 2025 - ATP Japan Open
20 Sep 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
13 Sep 2025 - Davis Cup
Ugo Humbert vs Holger Rune Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
9 Mar 2025 - ATP Indian Wells
20 Jan 2023 - ATP Australian Open
27 Oct 2022 - Swiss Indoors ATP Basel
Ugo Humbert - Holger Rune Key Points
- Rune has won all four of his previous matches against Humbert, all on hard courts.
- Rune has won seven more hard court matches this year than Humbert.
- Humbert has lost five of his last seven matches.
- Rune has won three of his last four matches.
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Our Ugo Humbert vs Holger Rune Prediction
A deep run here would boost Holger Rune's chances of reaching the ATP Tour Finals. He's yet to win an ATP Tour hard court event this year but was a finalist in Indian Wells. His good recent form continued with a comfortable straight sets win over Sebastian Baez.
Ugo Humbert has won one hard court title in 2025 but that was eight months ago. His recent form has been very poor and he's never beaten Rune. Our Ugo Humbert v Holger Rune prediction is Holger Rune to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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