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9 Jul 2025, 06:10 

Tour de France

Cycling

Tour de France - Stage 5

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Prediction :

 

Jonas Vingegaard to win

 
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Tour de France - Stage 5 Predictions & Betting tips - Tour de France

 by Matthew Newman |

Stage 5 of the Tour de France is the first Individual Time Trial. This is a very specialist discipline which means that the list of riders who can genuinely win this stage is a short one from which to make our prediction.

When it comes to a time trial, the only place that we can start is Remco Evenepoel. He is, without question, the top rider in this discipline in the world, winning each that he has ridden in so far in 2025 as well as being the defending Olympic champion He is 1.22 here, though.

This is the first opportunity for Jonas Vingegaard to take some time out of Tadej Pogacar. The latter is a solid time trialler, which makes this a serious stage for overall glory. He was runner-up to Evenepoel in the Dauphine time trial but did manage to beat him in a Tour de France time trial last year, albeit at the end of the tour, not the start.

Edoardo Affini was fourth and fifth in the pair of time trials in the Giro. He is yet to show up at the sharp end in the first four stages, but this will suit him better. Matteo Jorgenson was third in the Dauphine time trial, so he needs consideration as well.

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Tour de France - Stage 5 - Tour de France prediction key points

  1. Stage 5 is 33km long and is almost entirely flat.
  2. Jonas Vingegaard finished in front of the main danger, Remco Evenepoel, on Stage 21 of the Tour de France last year, an individual time trial.
  3. Vingegaard sits third, just eight seconds back in the yellow jersey. He’ll hit this stage hard to take the top spot.
  4. The early money has all been for Vingegaard to win the stage.
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Our Tour de France - Stage 5 - Tour de France prediction

Unsurprisingly, the bookmakers are win only on Stage 5 with a 1.22 favourite at the head of the market. There is little doubt that Remco Evenepoel is going to be a very difficult man to beat here, and we do think that he will win the stage, but it is hard to get excited about the price. 

As such, our Tour de France Stage 5 prediction will be Jonas Vingegaard to win. He beat Evenepoel in Stage 21 of the Tour last year, an individual time trial, so he has it in the legs, although both gave best to Tadej Pogacar in a hilly time trial. This flatter stage can see Vingegaard on top.

Prediction :

 

Jonas Vingegaard to win

 
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