16 Jul 2025, 05:15
Tour de France
Tour de France - Stage 11
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Tour de France - Stage 11 Predictions & Betting tips - Tour de France
by Matthew Newman |
The Tour de France returns after a rest day with a stage starting and ending in Toulouse. There is a string of small, Cat 4 climbs and a tougher Cat 3 as they head inside the final 10km. That could make this a little more difficult for a prediction than might be expected.
In general, this looks like a stage for the sprinting boys. The big question is if Tim Merlier and Jonathan Milan can get over the stiff Cat 3. Binian Girmay was the final sprinter standing with the peloton on Stage 10 over the Cat 2 climbs, so he might fare the best of those.
It could be a finish that Mathieu van der Poel enjoys, and he has shown how strong his form is in this tour. His breakaway with just a solitary teammate from the flag drop on Stage 9 to only be caught in the final kilometre was sensational.
We have seen little of Wout van Aert so far on the tour. A rest day ahead of this stage could have recharged his batteries, and with Team Visma on a high after Simon Yates winning Stage 10, they could allow him his head. This looks a perfect stage for his skillset.
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Tour de France - Stage 11 - Tour de France prediction key points
- Stage 11 of the Tour de France is 156.8km.
- The Cat 3 peaks at 12.4% which will be the real test of the sprinters.
- Visma won Stage 10 with perfect tactics and can double up.
- Wout van Aert is the perfect punchy rider to get over the climbs here and outsprint the small group that will be left.
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Our Tour de France - Stage 11 - Tour de France prediction
Stage 11 of the Tour de France is tricky. It could be a puncheur, it could be a sprint finish. A breakaway is going to be fairly well contained, given that this is going to be the last stage where a sprint finish looks likely until we get to Stage 17.
It does look like the big sprinting boys will struggle with that final climb, and the best sprinter of the puncheurs, if it comes down to a smaller group, is Wout van Aert, so our Tour de France Stage 11 prediction is a win for Wout van Aert.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
