Europe - Champions League
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Champions League Predictions
Sporting CP and Olympique Marseille go head-to-head in the third round of matches in the Champions League. The Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon will be the venue for this match, with hosts Sporting hoping to recover from their recent slump. On the other hand, Marseille are targeting an extension of their recent fine run. Read on for our prediction of this match.
In the Champions League, these teams have had identical runs. A win and a loss apiece in the league phase have Marseille in 12th place and Sporting in 14th. Pressure is mounting at Sporting as their return from the international break failed to yield a positive result.
A quick turnaround is needed as they are facing an in-form side. Marseille are coming off a huge win, proving the international break did little to slow them down. In the last round in the Champions League, they posted a big win and are unbeaten in their two previous matches against Sporting.
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The Best Betting Odds for Sporting Lisbon v Marseille Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.15 | 3.6 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.25 | 3.75 | 3 |
|
|
2.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
|
|
2.1 | 3.6 | 3.25 |
|
|
2.14 | 3.55 | 3.25 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Sporting Lisbon and Marseille?
Our prediction for the Sporting Lisbon vs Marseille match is: both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/10/2025 between Sporting Lisbon and Marseille in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 41.93% for a win of Sporting Lisbon against Marseille with odds of 2.32 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Sporting Lisbon vs Marseille is 10.29% with odds of 3.76 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 47.77% chance ⭐ for a win of Marseille vs Sporting Lisbon with odds of 3.25 at Bet365.
Sporting Lisbon - Marseille Prediction and Best Odds:
| Sporting Lisbon Marseille Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille wins | 47.77% | 3.25 at Bet365 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.89% | 1.65 at Betobet |
| Both Team To Score | 43.75% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Marseille | 24.4% | 8 at Betfair |
Sporting Lisbon vs Marseille Form
Sporting Lisbon and Marseille's standings in the Champions League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
8
|
10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
|
21
|
6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Sporting Lisbon and Marseille Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Taca de Portugal
5 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
22 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Sept 2025 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
5 Oct 2025 - Liga Portugal
22 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
18 Sept 2025 - Champions League
30 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
17 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
31 Jul 2025 - Portugal Super Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Taca de Portugal
1 Oct 2025 - Champions League
27 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
13 Sept 2025 - Liga Portugal
23 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
8 Aug 2025 - Liga Portugal
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
4 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
18 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
30 Sept 2025 - Champions League
22 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
12 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
23 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Oct 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Sept 2025 - Ligue 1
16 Sept 2025 - Champions League
31 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
15 Aug 2025 - Ligue 1
26 Jul 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
Sporting Lisbon vs Marseille Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
0 %
100 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
12 Oct 2022 - Champions League
4 Oct 2022 - Champions League
Sporting Lisbon - Marseille: Form Analysis
Sporting have a tough task on their hands. They head into this game winless in the last three matches, and confidence in the team has surely taken a dip.
After the international break they labored through a 3-2 win over second-tier side Pacos Ferreira in the Portuguese Cup. Sporting needed an own goal in extra time to advance.
Against Marseille the level of difficulty goes up, and this is also a match they haven't produced a win in. Sporting are now winless in regular time in three straight outings. Their Champions League journey started with a dominant 4-1 win at home to Kairat Almaty.
They couldn’t build on it, though, as they fell 2-1 to Napoli on matchday two.
Marseille have claimed wins in three of their last four matches against Portuguese teams.
Marseille are on their third Champions League campaign in the last 12 seasons. This time they will be looking to produce a deep run, having failed to reach the knockouts since 2011/12, when they got to the quarters.
After failing to qualify for Europe last season, Marseille are looking to go all the way this time. In Ligue 1, they are currently top of the standings following a resounding 6-2 win against Le Havre after the international break.
They have recovered from their opening Champions League loss to Real Madrid. The 4-0 win over Ajax on matchday two was one in their current run of five straight victories. They scored 16 goals in those five matches.
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Sporting Lisbon against Marseille Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 5 - 4 - 1
Sporting Lisbon & Marseille Squad Analysis
Sporting’s only goal in these two sides’ matches was scored by Trincao. He is proving to be a key player for the Lions this season as well. The Portuguese has five goals and an assist.
Two of his goals came in the Champions League, in the win over Kairat Almaty. Meanwhile, Daniel Braganca is still in the treatment room, nursing a knee injury.
He hasn’t kicked a ball since February, and this match definitely comes too soon.
Marseille will miss about eight players in this match, as they nurse various injuries.
Mason Greenwood was on song this weekend in the French Ligue 1 after scoring four times. He not only led his team to a 6-2 win but also is not the player with the most goal involvements in Ligue 1, at nine.
In the Champions League, he has one goal and one assist so far and will be a key man in the Marseille attack. In Greenwood’s form, Marseille will not miss Amine Gouiri, who is nursing a shoulder injury.
The Algerian, who has one goal so far, sat out the last match and will be left out of this too, as he needs surgery.
Most goals and assists
Sporting Lisbon
Marseille
L. Suarez
(11 Goals)
M. Greenwood
(11 Goals)
G. Quenda
(6 Assists)
,
F. Trincao
(6 Assists)
P. Aubameyang
(8 Assists)
Sporting Lisbon - Marseille Key Points
- Marseille’s last four matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Three of Sporting’s last five matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in Sporting Lisbon’s last three matches.
- Marseille conceded at least a goal in six of their last 10 games.
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Our Sporting Lisbon vs Marseille Prediction
Marseille recovered from their 2-1 loss to Real Madrid on matchday one with a 4-0 win over Ajax. On the other hand, Sporting’s two Champions League matches this season also had over 2.5 goals each, and with both teams scoring.
That made it seven of Sporting’s last nine games in this competition that produced over 2.5 goals. The Portuguese side has also scored in all of their last 18 outings at the group/league stage in Europe. As two prolific sides face off, we expect an entertaining match. Our prediction for Sporting Lisbon v Marseille is for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
Sporting Lisbon vs Marseille - Other Interesting Predictions
Marseille to win
Mason Greenwood takes into this game a great scoring form. He scored four times over the weekend to extend a fine run in attack so far. He also did well in the last two Champions League games, where he had two goal contributions.
Marseille will be banking on this form to lift them to a sixth straight win. Our second prediction for Sporting v Marseille is for a Marseille win.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Sporting Lisbon Marseille
| Sporting Lisbon vs Marseille | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lisbon wins | 2.1 | 2.15 | +2.4% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.6 | +10.8% |
| Marseille wins | 3.5 | 3.25 | -7.1% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Marseille is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 7.1% since opening
- The probability of this result was 28.6% and is now 30.8% (2.2%)
Win free tickets to Sporting Lisbon vs. Marseille at Bet365!
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To be in with a chance of winning tickets to any of the UEFA Champions League matchdays throughout the 2025/26 season, all fans must do is enter into the free-to-enter weekly ticket draws on the bet365 website or app*.
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Sporting Lisbon vs Marseille match : Frequently asked questions
The Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon will be the venue for Sporting v Marseille.
The Sporting v Marseille match will be played on Wednesday, 22 October.
Yes, the Sporting v Marseille match will be aired. In Portugal, you can access the match via Sport TV and DAZN, while Canal+ will have the game live for French audiences. On the Sportytrader Champions League livescore page we will have the match updates.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
