Spain vs Argentina Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
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by Devesh Jaganath | in World Cup Predictions
There are finals, and then there are footballing epics. This is the latter! The kings of Europe collide with the reigning world champions as Spain and Argentina lock horns in the 2026 World Cup final at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. La Roja and La Albiceleste have a combined xG of 3.96 per 90 in this tournament, which is a key stat we are factoring heavily into our match prediction.
Luis de la Fuente’s side produced a masterclass in the semi-final, completely controlling the match to send title favourites France crashing out of the tournament. Spain is the favourite in this clash of the titans, and they are featuring in their first World Cup final since lifting the trophy in South Africa back in 2010, when they contested the showpiece for the first time.
The knockout stages of this competition have been a rollercoaster of emotions for Argentine fans. Lionel Scaloni’s side has made something of a habit of pulling off incredible comebacks, perhaps none more so than overturning a 1-0 deficit to beat England in midweek. The reigning champs are looking to become the first team to defend the World Cup since 1962 - but can they find a way to beat the meanest defence in world football? Let’s get into the key stats!
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Spain v Argentina Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.3 | 3 | 3.55 |
|
|
2.36 | 3.14 | 3.67 |
|
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2.28 | 3.03 | 3.52 |
|
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2.26 | 3.04 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.36 | 3.14 | 3.67 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Spain and Argentina?
Our prediction for the Spain vs Argentina match is: 2-4 match goals range.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 19/07/2026 between Spain and Argentina in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.33% for a win of Spain against Argentina with odds of 2.4 at Shangrila.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Spain vs Argentina is 16.34% with odds of 3.15 at 888Starz.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.33% chance ⭐ for a win of Argentina vs Spain with odds of 3.7 at Betsson.
Spain vs Argentina Form
Spain and Argentina Last Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Jul 2026 - World Cup
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
8 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Jul 2026 - World Cup
6 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jul 2026 - World Cup
11 Jul 2026 - World Cup
7 Jul 2026 - World Cup
3 Jul 2026 - World Cup
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
22 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
11 Jul 2026 - World Cup
7 Jul 2026 - World Cup
3 Jul 2026 - World Cup
22 Jun 2026 - World Cup
16 Jun 2026 - World Cup
9 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
15 Jul 2026 - World Cup
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
14 Nov 2025 - International Friendlies
14 Oct 2025 - International Friendlies
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
5 Jun 2025 - World Cup
Spain vs Argentina Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
27 Mar 2018 - International Friendlies
Spain - Argentina: Form Analysis
After being held to an unexpected goalless draw by Cape Verde in their opening match of the 2026 World Cup, Spain romped into the knockout stages with wins against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.
Following a victory over Austria, La Roja ended CR7's dream of winning a World Cup in the RO16 and sent Belgium packing in the last eight before their masterful performance against France in the semis.
The European champions have scored 13 goals in this tournament - almost exactly on par with their xG of 13.34 - and they are now unbeaten in their last 17 matches across all competitions (W13 D4).
Spain is averaging 0.31 xGA per 90 and have only conceded a single goal in the 2026 World Cup!
Meanwhile, Argentina made light work of their opponents in the group stage, racking up comfortable wins against Algeria (3-0), Austria (3-1) and Jordan (3-2) en route to the knockout rounds.
However, things were far less straightforward for La Albiceleste in the knockout stages. They needed extra time to overcome Cape Verde and Switzerland and dramatic late comebacks to get by Egypt and England.
The defending world champions have scored 19 goals in this competition and have significantly overperformed their 14.37 xG. They are now on a 14-match win streak dating back to September last year.
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Spain vs Argentina last Lineups
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
J. Garcia
D. Raya
DefenderM. Pubill
A. Grimaldo
M. Llorente
E. Garcia
MidfielderM. Zubimendi
Pedri
Gavi
M. Merino
ForwardF. Torres
N. Williams
V. Munoz
Y. Pino
B. Iglesias
G. Rulli
J. Musso
DefenderN. Otamendi
G. Montiel
F. Medina
MidfielderM. Senesi
R. De Paul
G. Lo Celso
E. Palacios
V. Barco
N. Gonzalez
ForwardL. Martinez
N. Paz
T. Almada
J. Lopez
Spain & Argentina Squad Analysis
Mikel Oyarzabal netted Spain’s opener against France in the semi-final and has been the team's chief attacking contributor in the competition with five goals and an assist. The Real Sociedad forward has outdone his xG of 3.94 and is converting 22.7% of his shots to goals.
However, Rodri has been key to everything La Roja has done well in this tournament. The Man City midfielder leads the tournament in successful passes (655) and completed passes into the final third (173), while also having the second-most successful tackles (22).
Spain has no confirmed absentees for this weekend’s blockbuster. However, individual attention has been given to Rodri and Lamine Yamal, whose workloads have been closely monitored since the start of the tournament.
Lionel Messi is the top goal scorer in World Cup history (21 goals)!
Barring an incredible turn of events, Messi looks set to claim the Golden Boot this year. The Argentine skipper has overperformed his xG of 5.28 with eight goals and took his assists tally to four by setting up both goals against England in the semi-final.
While Messi is the undisputed star of the team, Lautaro Martinez was their saviour in the last match. He came off the bench to net the winner against the Three Lions and now has the highest xG per 90 of any player set to feature in this year’s World Cup final (0.81).
Argentina came away from their victory over England with no new injury concerns, but fatigue could prove a significant factor as they have already endured two extra-time battles in the knockouts and will head into the final with a day less recovery than Spain.
Most goals and assists
Spain
Argentina
M. Oyarzabal
(5 Goals)
L. Messi
(8 Goals)
D. Olmo
(2 Assists)
,
M. Cucurella
(2 Assists)
L. Messi
(4 Assists)
Spain - Argentina Key Points
- Four of Spain’s last six matches in this competition have ended with between 2 and 4 goals.
- Spain has scored two or more goals in 17 of their last 20 competitive matches.
- Five of Argentina’s seven matches in this competition have ended with between 2 and 4 goals.
- Argentina has scored two or more goals in each of their last 13 matches in all competitions.
- Argentina and Spain are averaging 2.05 and 1.91 xG per 90 in this tournament, respectively.
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Our Spain vs Argentina Prediction
After a month of intense battle, it is fitting that the 2026 World Cup final has come down to the teams that are the reigning champions of South America and Europe and are currently placed first and second in the world standings.
Spain has built their World Cup campaign on the back of a rock-solid defence that has only been breached once in the competition, but La Roja has not faced an attack with the resilience and sheer belief that Argentina possess. Given the quality on display here, we feel there will be at least a couple of goals before the final whistle. Our Spain vs Argentina prediction is 2-4 match goals range.
Spain vs Argentina Alternative Predictions
Lionel Messi to score or assist
Messi has recorded a direct goal contribution in every match in this competition and is the frontrunner for the Golden Boot with eight goals and four assists. He is also the team’s first-choice penalty and set-piece taker.
Draw
Despite what the odds suggest, this is about as close to a true 50-50 final as you will find. Spain is likely to dominate possession, while Argentina will look to defend compactly and threaten on the break. We fancy this one to end level in regulation time, but feel that Spain may have the higher ceiling over 120 minutes.
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Spain vs Argentina - FAQs
The 2026 World Cup final between Spain and Argentina will take place on July 19 at 19:00 UTC.
The 2026 World Cup final between Spain and Argentina will be played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, USA.
The 2026 World Cup final between Spain and Argentina will be broadcast on RTVE/ DAZN (Spain) and Telefe/ TyC Sports (Argentina). UK viewers can tune in to the BBC and ITV.
Alternatively, you can follow all the action on our World Cup livescore tool.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
