Southampton vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - Championship
England - Championship
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by Kennedy Kechula | in Championship Predictions
Southampton will be back at home to take on Derby County in their next Championship game. With three points separating sixth-placed Southampton from Derby in eighth, this will be a classic top-six battle. Read on to find our prediction of the match.
Southampton rose into the top six with a resounding 5-1 away win at Wrexham. They built on an already impressive run, with their fifth straight win. Among the teams they’ve beaten in that streak is Arsenal.
The Saints are on a 16-game unbeaten stretch and drew just four of them. Their 1-1 draw with Derby in the reverse match placed them on an eight-game unbeaten record against the Rams.
Derby have real hopes of finishing in the top six, and a win here will go a long way in boosting that. The visitors returned from the international break with a 3-2 loss to league leaders Coventry.
However, in their latest match, they bagged a 2-0 win at home against Stoke City. Now faced with an away match, they will be hoping for a stable game, having failed to win much on the road lately.
The Rams have only been able to beat relegation-threatened Portsmouth across their last five away matches. They lost each of the other four on their travels.
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Southampton v Derby County Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.7 | 3.85 | 4.7 |
|
|
1.69 | 3.8 | 4.75 |
|
|
1.69 | 3.8 | 4.75 |
|
|
1.61 | 3.9 | 4.75 |
|
|
1.68 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Southampton and Derby County?
Our prediction for the Southampton vs Derby County match is: Southampton wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 11/04/2026 between Southampton and Derby County in Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 59.44% for a win of Southampton against Derby County with odds of 1.73 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Southampton vs Derby County is 21.61% with odds of 3.95 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 18.95% chance ⭐ for a win of Derby County vs Southampton with odds of 5 at Shangrila.
Southampton - Derby County Prediction and Best Odds:
| Southampton Derby County Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton wins | 59.44% | 1.73 at Tonybet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.24% | 1.98 at Stake |
| Both Team To Score | 52.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Southampton/Southampton | 29.68% | 2.6 at Bet365 |
Southampton vs Derby County Form
Southampton and Derby County's standings in the Championship
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
80 | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | +26 |
|
8
|
69 | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | +8 |
Southampton and Derby County Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Apr 2026 - Championship
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
18 Mar 2026 - Championship
14 Mar 2026 - Championship
11 Mar 2026 - Championship
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
4 Apr 2026 - FA Cup
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
18 Mar 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - FA Cup
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
7 Apr 2026 - Championship
14 Mar 2026 - Championship
11 Mar 2026 - Championship
8 Mar 2026 - FA Cup
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
10 Feb 2026 - Championship
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Apr 2026 - Championship
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
16 Mar 2026 - Championship
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
6 Apr 2026 - Championship
21 Mar 2026 - Championship
7 Mar 2026 - Championship
28 Feb 2026 - Championship
14 Feb 2026 - Championship
7 Feb 2026 - Championship
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Apr 2026 - Championship
16 Mar 2026 - Championship
10 Mar 2026 - Championship
24 Feb 2026 - Championship
21 Feb 2026 - Championship
30 Jan 2026 - Championship
Southampton vs Derby County Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
100 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
4 Oct 2025 - Championship
5 Jan 2019 - FA Cup
Southampton against Derby County Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
G. Long
DefenderWelington
N. Wood
S. Charles
K. Matsuki
C. Bragg
ForwardC. Archer
S. Edozie
C. Larin
J. Vickers
DefenderI. Gordon
S. Langas
C. Forsyth
D. Batth
MidfielderO. Fraulo
C. Allen
O. Eames
L. Salvesen
Missing players
A. McCarthy
DefenderM. Roerslev
P. Agyemang
Most goals and assists
Southampton
Derby County
F. Azaz
(11 Goals)
, 
A. Armstrong
(11 Goals)
C. Morris
(12 Goals)
L. Scienza
(9 Assists)
J. Ward
(9 Assists)
Southampton - Derby County Key Points
- Derby have lost four of their last five away matches.
- Southampton have won all their last four home games.
- Southampton are unbeaten in 16 matches, drawing just four.
- Derby are winless in the last eight meetings with Southampton, losing three.
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Our Southampton vs Derby County Prediction
Southampton are enjoying a really good run of results and look primed to secure a top six place. With a game in hand, they can even dare to dream of a top two place, though that would be a stretch. The Saints are unbeaten in 16 matches, winning each of the last five.
They are undefeated in eight meetings with Derby, who haven't been at their best in away matches. Derby have lost four times in the last five away games. Our prediction for Southampton v Derby County is that Southampton wins.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Southampton Derby County
| Southampton vs Derby County | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton wins | 1.76 | 1.73 | -1.7% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.95 | +2.6% |
| Derby County wins | 4.2 | 5 | +19.0% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Southampton is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have decreased by 1.7% since opening
- The probability of this result was 56.8% and is now 57.8% (1.0%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Southampton vs. Derby County game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Southampton and Derby County when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on Championship!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
