International - Test Matches
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by Ita Emmanuel | in Rugby Predictions
The third Test of Italy's 2025 Tour of Southern Africa will see the Blues trade tackles with South Africa again on Saturday at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Gqeberha. This is the second Test in Italy's two-match series against South Africa in their ongoing tour of the Southern Hemisphere. Can they pull off an upset in this rematch after their loss in the first Test in Pretoria? Check out our prediction for the match below.
After a resounding tour-opening victory over Namibia in Windhoek, Italy expectedly fell against the lethal firepower of the Springboks in Pretoria in the first test of this two-match series. A decisive 25-point loss in the first half put the game beyond the visitors, and a late scramble for a comeback only kept the margin respectable. Meanwhile, it was the Italians' fourth consecutive attempt to upset the reigning world champions – all of which ended in defeat.
For South Africa, the superlative first-Test showing against the Blues at Loftus Versfeld Stadium cemented their enduring dominance over the European opponents. It has been one-way traffic since their first meeting, with the World No.1 winning 16 of their 17 encounters. The five-time world champions will aim to reassert this dominance and consolidate their grip on the top spot in the global ranking by completing a 2-0 clean sweep of this Test series on Saturday.
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The Best Betting Odds for South Africa v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 | 51 | 26 |
|
|
1.01 | 21 | 12 |
|
|
1.01 | 67 | 17 |
|
|
1.01 | 61 | 26 |
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|
1.01 | 70 | 12.5 |
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South Africa vs Italy Form
South Africa and Italy Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
28 Jun 2025 - Test Matches
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
10 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
13 Jul 2024 - Test Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
28 Jun 2025 - Test Matches
13 Jul 2024 - Test Matches
1 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
23 Sept 2023 - Rugby World Cup
17 Sept 2023 - Rugby World Cup
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
10 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
28 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
21 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
15 Oct 2023 - Rugby World Cup
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
15 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
9 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
23 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
15 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
23 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
17 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
9 Nov 2024 - Test Matches
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
9 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
16 Mar 2024 - Six Nations
25 Feb 2024 - Six Nations
11 Feb 2024 - Six Nations
South Africa vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
5 Jul 2025 - Test Matches
19 Nov 2022 - Test Matches
4 Oct 2019 - Rugby World Cup
South Africa - Italy: Form Analysis
Since their shock 29-28 loss to Argentina in November 2024, South Africa have been on a terrific winning streak. They will enter this match on the back of a six-match winning run, five of which by blowout margins. This includes the 42-24 victory over Italy in the first Test of this tie.
They have also won their last six home matches and have walloped Italy by blowout margins in their last four meetings. Rassie Erasmus' side could be considered the favorites to ace this tie by an impressive margin given this trend.
South Africa will aim for a 24th victory in their last 27 matches and 17th in 18th meetings against Italy.
Italy will enter this match in disarray. They have lost four of their last five matches, the most recent was the first-Test defeat in Pretoria – no thanks to a thumping 28-3 defeat in the first half that set the stage for the hosts' eventual victory.
Also, Gonzalo Quesada's men have struggled against South Africa. They will be looking for their second win in 18 attempts against the reigning world champions and have also lost their last four tests against them by blowout margins. It will be another tough test taking on the hosts in Gqeberha on Saturday.
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South Africa & Italy Squad Analysis
After the first-Test victory in Pretoria, South Africa will field a hugely rotated squad on Saturday to reserve veterans for other crucial Tests. Salmaan Moerat will replace injured Siya Kolisi as the team's captain while Edwill van der Merwe is expected to make his debut on the wing.
Willie le Roux will make his milestone 100th appearance for the Springboks in the match.
Notable new additions to the Springboks' forward pack bench are flanker Cobus Wiese and prop Asenathi Ntlabakanye. Also, center Ethan Hooker is set for his test debut after being named on the bench as backline cover. Meanwhile, Malcolm Marx, Marco van Staden, Wilco Louw, and Jasper Wiese have all retained their places in the forward pack.
Gonzalo Quesada has made subtle changes to the Italy squad following the first-Test loss in Pretoria. Full-back Mirko Belloni is set for his first-ever test start while Ross Vintcent has been shifted to the No.8 in the back row.
Scrum-half Alessandro Garbisi and fly-half Giacomo Da Re have been lined up in the half-back while Marco Zanon and Tommaso Menoncello are back at the center. Andrea Zambonin and Niccolò Cannone have made Gonzalo Quesada's locks while Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, Simone Ferrari and Danilo Fischetti return to the front row.
South Africa - Italy Key Points
- South Africa have won their last six matches, five of which by blowout margins.
- South Africa have won their last six home matches, five of which by impressive double-digit margins.
- Italy have lost four of their last five matches.
- Italy have lost their last four encounters with South Africa by wide margins.
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Our South Africa vs Italy Prediction
World No.1 South Africa will aim to secure their second straight Test victory over Italy, having won the first Test of this tie last week. Apart from their historical dominance over the Blues, the world champions, ranked 10 places above Italy – are in top form.
They won the first Test, including their last six matches, mostly by dominant margins. Meanwhile, Italy have lost four of their last five matches, including their last four meetings with South Africa by blowout margins. Hence, our South Africa vs Italy prediction is South Africa -32.5 handicap points.
South Africa vs Italy - Other Interesting Predictions
Under 75.5 total points
Each of South Africa's last 11 matches have ended with under 76 total points scored. Three of Italy's last four matches have also ended below that same point threshold. Hence, we expect the total points scored in this match to stay under 76 points.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
