International - Test Matchs
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by Steve Ashfield | in Rugby Predictions
South Africa play the first of two Test matches against Italy this weekend. The Springboks are preparing for their defence of the Rugby Championship series against Argentina, Australia and New Zealand. Here's our match prediction.
The South African side are in excellent form at present and a win over Italy will make it six straight wins. As you will read in the form section of this preview, they also have an excellent record against Italy who will find this a very tough match.
Italy again managed to avoid winning the wooden spoon in this year's Six Nations. They only won one of their five matches but the win over a hapless Welsh side was enough to see them finish in fifth place. They now play their summer internationals before more matches in the autumn as they prepare for the 2026 Six Nations tournament. It may be a case of them keeping the score down rather than getting a shock win.
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The Best Betting Odds for South Africa v Italy Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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1 | 67 | 26 |
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1 | 67 | 26 |
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1.01 | 67 | 26 |
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1 | 31 | 12 |
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1 | 70 | 14.5 |
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South Africa vs Italy Form
South Africa and Italy Last Matches
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
28 Jun 2025 - Test Matchs
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
10 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
28 Sep 2024 - The Rugby Championship
21 Sep 2024 - The Rugby Championship
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
28 Jun 2025 - Test Matchs
28 Sep 2024 - The Rugby Championship
7 Sep 2024 - The Rugby Championship
31 Aug 2024 - The Rugby Championship
20 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
13 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
16 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
10 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
21 Sep 2024 - The Rugby Championship
17 Aug 2024 - The Rugby Championship
10 Aug 2024 - The Rugby Championship
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
15 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
9 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
23 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
15 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
23 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
8 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
23 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
17 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
9 Nov 2024 - Test Matchs
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
9 Mar 2025 - Six Nations
1 Feb 2025 - Six Nations
21 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
11 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
5 Jul 2024 - Test Matchs
16 Mar 2024 - Six Nations
South Africa vs Italy Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
100 %
0 %
0 %
19 Nov 2022 - Test Matchs
4 Oct 2019 - Rugby World Cup
South Africa - Italy: Form Analysis
South Africa have only lost one of their last 11 internationals. That was to Argentina in last year's Rugby Championship which they still went on to win and begin their defence of in August.. After this match against Italy, the two sides face each other again on the 12th of July. Seven days later the Springboks take on Georgia before their opening Rugby Championship game against Australia on August 16.
Each of their last five matches has been won. The most recent of those victories was last month when they beat the Barbarians 54-7. Last Autumn saw them win against Scotland, England and Wales.
South Arica have a great record against Italy.
Against Italy, South Africa have won 15 of their 16 previous meetings. All seven of their home matches against the Italians have been won and in convincing fashion with 389 points scored and only 51 conceded.
Italy's only win against South Africa came in 2016 on home soil. They had a good win last month when beating Namibia 73-6 but this is a totally different challenge for them this weekend. Before that win, they'd lost to France, England and Ireland with 142 points scored against them.
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South Africa & Italy Squad Analysis
Jesse Kriel will be captaining South Africa for the first time in a Test match this weekend. Their regular captain Siya Kolisi is out injured. South Africa's head coach Rassie Erasmus has named his starting line-up and he's made five changes from the previous fixture against the Barbarians.
Willemse makes his return for the Springboks.
It'll be a special weekend for Vincent Tshituka as he'll be making his international debut. Full-back Damian Willemse is far more experienced but he will be playing for the Springboks for the first time since their World Cup triumph.
He will form a back three with Chestin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arensche that will cause Italy plenty of nightmares.
It's an important game for South Africa with the Rugby Championship on the horizon. The matches they will play in that tournament will be far tougher than this so they will want to continue the good form that has brought them so much success in recent years.
Italy had a big win over Namibia last month but that was totally expected. Their coach Gonzalo Quesada didn't include several of their usual starting line-up for that international but they have been recalled for this match against South Africa.
Niccolo Cannone will be the captain as the Azzuri try to find a way of ensuring the Springbok don't inflict a heavy defeat on them. That's a tough task and there is a massive gap in class between these two nations.
In total, they have made seven changes to their starting line-up. They will hope for their midfield partnership to be able to get some kind of success and give them a chance of getting some points on the board.
Eight of their last 10 matches against South Africa have seen them fail to score 15 points.
South Africa - Italy Key Points
- South Africa have only lost one of their last 11 games.
- South Africa are the reigning World Cup and Rugby Championship title holders.
- South Africa have won 15 of their 16 matches against Italy.
- Italy lost four of their five matches in this year's Six Nations.
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Our South Africa vs Italy Prediction
It's nine years since Italy recorded their solitary win over South Africa. That was in a home match and all seven games played in South Africa have seen them defeated with a points difference of -348. Italy managed to win one match in this year's Six Nations but lost the other four with some heavy defeats.
South Africa are looking to make it six straight wins. They are fielding a strong line-up for this game and that's not going to help the Italians. Our main South Africa v Italy prediction is South Africa to win on a -33.5 points handicap.
South Africa vs Italy - Other Interesting Predictions
Under 63.5 points to be scored in the match
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South Africa vs Italy match : Frequently asked questions
The venue for this match between South Africa and Italy is the Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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