Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Prediction & Betting Tips - ATP Buenos Aires
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by Daniel Ngulu | in Tennis Predictions
Fourth seed Sebastian Baez and second seed Luciano Darderi meet yet again in 2026, as they clash in the semi-finals in Buenos Aires. This marks their eighth career meeting, and the winner will play Tomas Martin Etcheverry or Francisco Cerundolo in the final. Below is our prediction for this match.
Baez is having his best run at the Argentina Open and is just two wins away from being crowned champion. The Argentine, who has beaten Darderi six times previously, is yet to drop a set this week.
He began his tournament against Ignacio Buse before edging out compatriot Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Baez, a six-time tour champion on clay, has won 10 of 12 matches so far in 2026 and is now up to 32nd in the live ranking.
Luciano Darderi has won the last two matchups with Baez. He emerged tops in their most recent showdown three weeks ago at the Australian Open.
The Italian has gone on to win a tournament in which he has eliminated Baez twice. A champion of four tour titles, Darderi will hope this streak continues as he seeks his second title on Argentinian soil.
The world number 22, who is also yet to relinquish a set this week, has won against Tomas Barrios Vera and Pedro Martinez to improve to 6-2 to start the season.
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Sebastian Baez v Luciano Darderi Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2.26 | 1.65 |
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2.26 | 1.65 |
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2.3 | 1.62 |
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2.2 | 1.61 |
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2.2 | 1.61 |
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Who will win the Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Tennis game?
Our prediction for the Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi match is: more than 2.5 sets.
The best winner predictions and betting odds for the Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi game on 14/02/2026 of the current ATP Buenos Aires season:
- Sebastian Baez has a 52.54% chance to win against Luciano Darderi according to Bet365 ⭐ with the odds of 2.3.
- Luciano Darderi has a 47.46% probability of winning facing Sebastian Baez ⭐ with odds of 1.65 at Melbet.
Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Best Prediction and Odds
Based on the bookmaker's betting lines in this match, Sebastian Baez has a 52.54 % chance to win.
| Prediction | Chance to win |
|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez | 52.54 % |
| Luciano Darderi | 47.46 % |
Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Form
Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
13 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
12 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
19 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
16 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
15 Jan 2026 - ASB Classic
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
13 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
12 Feb 2026 - ATP Buenos Aires
26 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
23 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
19 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
21 Jan 2026 - ATP Australian Open
18 Jul 2025 - ATP Bastad Open
26 Aug 2024 - ATP US Open
19 Jul 2024 - ATP Hamburg Open
15 Feb 2024 - ATP Buenos Aires
10 Feb 2024 - ATP Cordoba
Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi Key Points
- Baez and Darderi have each won this fixture at least three times.
- This is the sixth showdown between Baez and Darderi on clay.
- Baez and Darderi have won a combined 10 tour finals on clay.
- Both players won at least one set in their most recent meeting.
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Our Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Prediction
Our prediction for Sebastian Baez v Luciano Darderi is for more than 2.5 sets. This match is very likely to go the full distance. The previous duels between Darderi and Baez have been hotly contested. They have each won multiple times against one another on clay.
Aside from this, Darderi and Baez are clay-court specialists who have been crowned tour champions multiple times on such surfaces. Darderi has won the last two meetings with Baez, while the Argentine has a head-to-head advantage and is competing on home soil.
Get a retirement guarantee for the Sebastian Baez vs. Luciano Darderi game!
When you place a bet on the match between Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi you can get a retirement guarantee with bet365. This means that your bet will be paid out as a winner if your opponent retires.
It does not matter whether you bet on Sebastian Baez or Luciano Darderi, if your opponent has to retire from the match with an injury, you will get paid as a winner!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
