Scotland vs Slovenia Prediction & Betting Tips - UEFA Nations League
Europe - UEFA Nations League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in UEFA Nations League Predictions
With very little to separate Scotland and Slovenia in Group B1 of the UEFA Nations League (UNL), their matchday four fixture could be an interesting battle for points. This match at Hampden Park in Glasgow pits the third-placed Scots against the second-placed Slovenians, but with a high incentive for the winner, which team can lift themselves up?
The hosts have four points after three matches (W1, D1, L1) and are comfortably above the last-placed nation, North Macedonia. Slovenia are level on points with and are five points behind runaway leaders Switzerland. The return fixture on matchday one ended in a 0-0 draw in Slovenia, so the winner here will practically build a case for finishing second and remain in the playoff race.
Scotland may have just picked up their first win under new coach Sebastien Pocognoli, but their performances have been below par. Even their disciplinary record is concerning, as they picked up a red card in each of their last two games. Slovenia are also coming off a defeat, but can they make the most of Scotland’s poor form? Read more to find our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Scotland v Slovenia Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.77 | 3.45 | 4.5 |
|
|
1.82 | 3.64 | 4.85 |
|
|
1.85 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
|
|
1.86 | 3.78 | 3.96 |
|
|
1.72 | 3.6 | 5 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Scotland and Slovenia?
Our prediction for the Scotland vs Slovenia match is: BTTS: No.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/10/2026 between Scotland and Slovenia in UEFA Nations League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 37.24% for a win of Scotland against Slovenia with odds of 1.9 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Scotland vs Slovenia is 27.12% with odds of 3.78 at Betwinner.
- Our prediction model gives a 35.65% chance ⭐ for a win of Slovenia vs Scotland with odds of 5 at Bet365.
Scotland vs Slovenia Form
Scotland and Slovenia's standings in the UEFA Nations League
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
|
3
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
Scotland and Slovenia Last Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
29 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
13 Jun 2026 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
24 Jun 2026 - World Cup
19 Jun 2026 - World Cup
30 May 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
13 Jun 2026 - World Cup
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
8 Sept 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
29 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
29 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
13 Oct 2025 - World Cup
5 Sept 2025 - World Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
3 Oct 2026 - UEFA Nations League
7 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
18 Nov 2025 - World Cup
10 Oct 2025 - World Cup
Scotland vs Slovenia Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
0 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
26 Sept 2026 - UEFA Nations League
8 Oct 2017 - World Cup
26 Mar 2017 - World Cup
Scotland - Slovenia: Form Analysis
Goals in the 7th and the 69th minute gave Scotland a 2-0 win away at North Macedonia last Saturday, although finishing with a player short dampened the spirits. It was a second red card of this UNL cycle for the Scots, who have also picked up their first goals after four consecutive scoring blanks.
That run included a 0-0 away draw against Slovenia on matchday one and a 3-0 loss here against Switzerland on matchday two. That defeat was a second in three home games (W1), as the ‘Tartan Army’ remain on the edge over their team’s chances.
None of Scotland’s last nine fixtures produced BTTS.
Slovenia lost 2-1 away at Switzerland last weekend, a result that ended their unbeaten start to this UNL cycle (W1, D1). The draw came against Scotland, while the win over North Macedonia was achieved at home.
The Slovenians will be worried about their strike force having had only one shot on target in the home draw against Scotland. Even their away form doesn’t inspire confidence, as Slovenia have won just once in their last seven away games (D2, L4).
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Scotland vs Slovenia last Lineups
Formation : 3 - 4 - 2 - 1
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
S. Bain
L. Kelly
DefenderA. Hickey
J. Doig
L. Graham
C. Donovan
N. Patterson
MidfielderJ. McPake
L. Miller
K. Montgomery
R. Christie
ForwardR. Ure
I. Vekic
M. Vidovsek
DefenderJ. Urbancic
D. Brekalo
S. Kuzmic
J. Balkovec
MidfielderT. Elsnik
T. Svetlin
A. Gnezda Cerin
T. Horvat
ForwardT. Begic
Z. Celar
Scotland & Slovenia Squad Analysis
Scotland’s defender Scott McKenna is suspended for this fixture after being red carded against North Macedonia. Jack Hendry is back in contention after serving his suspension, while the likes of Kieran Tierney, Scott McTominay, and Che Adams continue to be injury absentees.
The hosts are likely to stick to their 3-4-2-1 formation, with Kieron Bowie set to lead the line. Starting behind them in the attacking third would be John McGinn, who scored their last goal in the recent win.
Scotland won six of the last seven matches that McGinn scored.
Slovenia have no new injury concerns from the last match, while Manchester United’s striker Benjamin Sesko remains out of the squad. That should see Swansea City’s Zan Vipotnik continue to lead the line for the visitors.
Slovenia are likely to retain their usual 5-4-1 formation, which could further stifle the Scottish side in the attacking third. Sandi Lovric could be key to their chances, as the Slovenian midfielder has netted in their 2-0 win over North Macedonia.
Most goals and assists
Scotland
Slovenia
J. McGinn
(1 Goals)
,
K. Bowie
(1 Goals)
S. Lovric
(1 Goals)
,
A. Matko
(1 Goals)
,
Z. Vipotnik
(1 Goals)
B. Gilmour
(1 Assists)
D. Sturm
(1 Assists)
,
T. Begic
(1 Assists)
,
A. Matko
(1 Assists)
Scotland and Slovenia Stats in UEFA Nations League
Scotland - Slovenia Key Points
- Just one of Scotland’s last ten games saw both teams score.
- Both teams scored just one of Scotland’s last eight UNL games.
- Only five of Slovenia’s last 12 matches saw both teams score.
- Both teams scored in only three of Slovenia’s last ten UNL fixtures.
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Our Scotland vs Slovenia Prediction
This has been a troubling campaign for Scotland, although the 2-0 win away at North Macedonia eased some worries. Those were also their first goals of this UNL cycle, although the scars of a 3-0 defeat to Switzerland at home on matchday are still fresh. Slovenia went the other way round, losing 2-1 away on matchday three, but can they rebound and extend Scotland’s home troubles?
Four of the last six matches between these sides saw at least one clean sheet, including the reverse fixture, which ended 0-0. Our Scotland vs Slovenia prediction is BTTS: No.
Scotland vs Slovenia Alternative Predictions
Draw
Four of the previous six matches between these sides ended in a draw, including the latest two. With neither side boasting any form ahead of this fixture, it’s likely that there’s another stalemate in the offing.
Lewis Ferguson to Get Carded
Lewis Ferguson has committed 11 fouls in this UNL cycle, and only Austria’s Patrick Wimmer has committed more after three matchdays. Ferguson has fouled in three consecutive matches, although he has yet to get carded. The law of averages could catch up with him, and he could get a yellow card here.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
