Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon Prediction & Betting Tips - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in Champions League Predictions
After a controversy-filled first leg that ended in a 1-0 win for Real Madrid, Benfica will hope to turn tables around in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League knockout phase play-off. This second-leg match between Los Blancos and the Eagles comes with our prediction of less than 3.5 goals. The winner of this two-legged tie moves on to the round of 16 to face either Sporting CP or Manchester City.
A 50th-minute goal by Vinicius decided the first leg, but the headlines were grabbed by the racial abuse incident involving the Brazilian and Gianluca Prestianni. With a strong home record, Los Blancos are well-placed to advance to the round of 16.
Benfica have already edged Madrid once this season, defeating them 4-2 dramatically on matchday eight of the league phase to qualify for the playoffs. Former Madrid manager Jose Mourinho knows a thing or two about winning at this venue, but the Portuguese visitors have won just one of their last five away Champions League matches in the main draw. Will that change this week? Read more for our analysis, team news, and match predictions.
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Real Madrid v Benfica Lisbon Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.68 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
|
|
1.68 | 4.2 | 4.54 |
|
|
1.68 | 4.2 | 4.54 |
|
|
1.7 | 4.33 | 4.33 |
|
|
1.67 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Real Madrid and Benfica Lisbon?
Our prediction for the Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon match is: less than 3.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 25/02/2026 between Real Madrid and Benfica Lisbon in Champions League :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 62.29% for a win of Real Madrid against Benfica Lisbon with odds of 1.74 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon is 14.38% with odds of 4.4 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 23.34% chance ⭐ for a win of Benfica Lisbon vs Real Madrid with odds of 4.9 at Tonybet.
Real Madrid - Benfica Lisbon Prediction and Best Odds:
| Real Madrid Benfica Lisbon Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 62.29% | 1.74 at 888Starz |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.29% | 1.85 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 52.08% | |
| Half-time / Full-time : Real Madrid/Real Madrid | 27.48% | 2.5 at Bet365 |
Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon Form
Real Madrid and Benfica Lisbon Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
14 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
14 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
1 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
20 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
4 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
20 Dec 2025 - LaLiga
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
8 Feb 2026 - LaLiga
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
24 Jan 2026 - LaLiga
14 Jan 2026 - Copa del Rey
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
13 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
8 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
1 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
4/6 (67%)
0/6 (0%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
21 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
8 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
25 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
7 Jan 2026 - Portugal League Cup
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
1 Feb 2026 - Liga Portugal
21 Jan 2026 - Champions League
17 Jan 2026 - Liga Portugal
14 Jan 2026 - Taca de Portugal
28 Dec 2025 - Liga Portugal
Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
0 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
17 Feb 2026 - Champions League
28 Jan 2026 - Champions League
Real Madrid - Benfica Lisbon: Form Analysis
Madrid had a shocker at the weekend, losing 2-1 at Osasuna in La Liga, dropping to second in the domestic standings. That was, however, just their second defeat in their last nine competitive matches (W7).
The record gets better when they play here, as Los Blancos have won their last six competitive home games. The hosts scored 21 goals in this sequence, so action could be guaranteed if they continue that scoring form.
Madrid have won six of their last eight home matches in the Champions League.
Benfica bounced back from the first-leg defeat with a 3-0 home win over AVS in the domestic league. It was their fifth win in the last seven competitive games (D1, L1), so the visitors have some momentum to fall back on.
It’s their away form that should be of concern for the Portuguese. Benfica have won only two of their last six away matches in all competitive matches (D2, L2). The record is worse in this competition, as Benfica were beaten on three of their last four Champions League trips (W1) this season.
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Real Madrid against Benfica Lisbon Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Substitutes
F. Gonzalez
A. Lunin
DefenderD. Carvajal
F. Mendy
F. Garcia
D. Alaba
Manuel Angel
C. Palacios
J. Cestero
T. Pitarch Pinar
F. Mastantuono
B. Diaz
D. Ferreira
S. Soares
DefenderA. Silva
Sidny Lopes Cabral
J. Neto
A. Bah
MidfielderG. Sudakov
E. Barrenechea
M. Silva
F. Ivanovic
A. Cabral
D. Lukebakio
Missing players
E. Militao
D. Huijsen
MidfielderD. Ceballos
ForwardK. Mbappe
Rodrygo
G. Prestianni
Real Madrid & Benfica Lisbon Squad Analysis
Madrid will be without Rodrygo, who is suspended. They will also be without Jude Bellingham, Dean Huijsen, Eder Militao, and Dani Ceballos. All eyes will be on Vinicius Junior, who was at the centre of action – on and off the pitch – in the first leg.
The Brazilian was supposed to team up with Kylian Mbappé, but the Frenchman is officially out due to a knee injury that is expected to keep him sidelined for several weeks. Young Gonzalo Garcia could replace the Frenchman at kick-off tonight.
Vinicius has five goals in his last four matches for Madrid.
Benfica’s absence list is headed by Gianluca Prestianni, who has been suspended by UEFA for the racist abuse against Vinicius. Another confirmed absence is Nuno Felix, while midfielder Joao Veloso is an injury doubt.
The visitors are likely to stick to the 4-2-3-1 system, unless Mourinho would look to stack his midfield and start in a 4-5-1 formation. The forward line will be led by Vangelis Pavlidis, who has two goals and two assists to his name in this year’s Champions League competition.
Most goals and assists
Real Madrid
Benfica Lisbon
K. Mbappe
(15 Goals)
V. Pavlidis
(2 Goals)
, 
L. Barreiro
(2 Goals)
, 
A. Schjelderup
(2 Goals)
Vinicius Junior
(6 Assists)
G. Sudakov
(2 Assists)
,
V. Pavlidis
(2 Assists)
Real Madrid - Benfica Lisbon Key Points
- Four of Madrid’s last five competitive matches produced under 3.5 goals.
- In five of Madrid’s last eight home competitive matches, there have been fewer than four goals scored.
- Three of Madrid’s last four home Champions League matches have seen under four goals scored.
- Benfica’s last five competitive games saw three or fewer goals scored.
- Seven of Benfica’s last eight Champions League matches have seen fewer than four goals scored.
- That included all four of their away matches including the first leg.
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Our Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon Prediction
Benfica loves a scrap, as does their manager Jose Mourinho, especially when the chips are down. The Portuguese visitors have already downed Madrid once in the season, on matchday eight of the league phase. That said, Madrid have a great record at home. They have won their last six competitive matches in a row at this venue and also have three wins from four home games in this year’s Champions League.
This could be a tight game overall, and our Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon prediction is less than 3.5 goals.
Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon Alternative Predictions
Vinicius to score anytime
Vinicius was at the core of everything good, bad, and ugly in the first round. He scored once and also got yellow carded, while the racism storm grabbed the headlines. Regardless, with five goals in his last four games for Madrid, Vinicius is a scoring threat.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Real Madrid Benfica Lisbon
| Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins | 1.55 | 1.74 | +12.3% |
| Draw | 4.73 | 4.4 | -7.0% |
| Benfica Lisbon wins | 6.4 | 4.9 | -23.4% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Real Madrid is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 12.3% since opening
- The probability of this result was 64.5% and is now 57.5% (-7.0%)
Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon - FAQs
The Real Madrid vs Benfica Lisbon UEFA Champions League match will be broadcast live on TNT Sports 1 TV channel in the UK. In Spain, Telefonica is the official broadcaster, while in Portugal Sport TV are the official broadcasters.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our UEFA Champions League Livescore page!
The first leg match was the fifth meeting between these sides, with Madrid winning two and Benfica winning three.
Madrid have now won five of their last six matches against Portuguese opponents (L1). Los Blancos are also unbeaten at home against Portuguese clubs (W10, D1).
Benfica have lost six of their last eight matches against Spanish opposition (W2). That includes losing home and away to Barcelona in last season’s round of 16.
The visitors have also struggled on their visits to Spain, winning only two of their 14 away games against Spanish clubs (D3, L9).
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
