Spain - LaLiga
New customers only | Commercial content | 18+ age limit | T&Cs apply
by Sridhar Bhamidi | in LaLiga Predictions
In a battle of two teams that have struggled to excite fans with goals, Rayo Vallecano and Alaves meet on Sunday in a matchday 10 fixture of the 2025-26 La Liga campaign. This match at Estadio de Vallecas between the 11th-placed Los Franjirrojos and the 10th-placed Babazorros comes with our prediction of less than 2.5 goals.
Vallecano’s 11 points (W3, D2, L4) put them four points outside European qualification spots, while Alaves are one point above their hosts (W3, D3, L3).
A 3-0 away win at Levante lifted Vallecano’s spirits and their position in the table, landing a second consecutive league win. Both the wins have come on the road and ended a six-game wait for a La Liga victory (D2, L4).
Rayo still need to lift their spirits at this venue, as they failed to win any of their three league games here this season (D2, L1).
Alaves held Valencia to a 0-0 draw at home last weekend to make it four points in two games following a 3-1 win over Elche. Both the results came at home, as they continue to battle inconsistent results.
Alaves have won four points from their four away league matches this season (W1, D1, L2), with all three of those decisive results coming by a 1-0 score, while the draw ended 1-1.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
The Best Betting Odds for Rayo Vallecano v Alavés Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.2 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
|
|
2.2 | 3 | 3.75 |
|
|
2.25 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
|
|
2.25 | 3 | 3.5 |
|
|
2.15 | 2.95 | 3.8 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Rayo Vallecano and Alavés?
Our prediction for the Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 26/10/2025 between Rayo Vallecano and Alavés in LaLiga :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 39.96% for a win of Rayo Vallecano against Alavés with odds of 2.32 at 888Starz.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés is 34.6% with odds of 3.15 at Betobet.
- Our prediction model gives a 25.44% chance ⭐ for a win of Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano with odds of 4.2 at Betobet.
Rayo Vallecano - Alavés Prediction and Best Odds:
| Rayo Vallecano Alavés Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 39.96% | 2.32 at 888Starz |
| Under 2.5 | 80.66% | 1.94 at Tonybet |
| Both Team To Score | 25% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Rayo Vallecano | 22.75% | 5.1 at Unibet |
Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés Form
Rayo Vallecano and Alavés's standings in the LaLiga
| Teams | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11
|
18 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -2 |
|
12
|
17 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -3 |
Rayo Vallecano and Alavés Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Oct 2025 - Conference League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
28 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Oct 2025 - Conference League
28 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
21 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
31 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
28 Aug 2025 - Conference League
24 May 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
23 Oct 2025 - Conference League
19 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
14 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
25 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
20 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
5 Oct 2025 - LaLiga
20 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
30 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
16 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
6 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
24 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
13 Sept 2025 - LaLiga
22 Aug 2025 - LaLiga
9 Aug 2025 - Clubs Friendlies
18 May 2025 - LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
0 %
33 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
29 Mar 2025 - LaLiga
26 Oct 2024 - LaLiga
10 Mar 2024 - LaLiga
15 Sept 2023 - LaLiga
16 Apr 2022 - LaLiga
18 Dec 2021 - LaLiga
Players list
A. Batalla
DefenderA. Ratiu
F. Lejeune
N. Mendy
P. Chavarria
MidfielderA. Garcia
P. Ciss
P. Diaz
I. Palazon
ForwardI. Balliu
A. Espino
A. Sivera
DefenderJ. Otto
F. Tenaglia
V. Parada
Y. Enriquez
MidfielderC. Benavidez
A. Guevara
C. Alena
ForwardP. Ibanez
J. Guridi
L. Boye
Substitutes
A. Molina
D. Cardenas
DefenderI. Balliu
A. Espino
J. Vertrouwd
MidfielderG. Gumbau
A. Garcia
P. Ciss
I. Palazon
S. Gomez
ForwardO. Trejo
S. Camello
R. Fernandez
DefenderV. Parada
C. Ballestero
M. Diarra
MidfielderC. Benavidez
Calebe
P. Ibanez
J. Guridi
A. Guevara
A. Rebbach
M. Diaz
D. Morcillo
Missing players
A. Mumin
L. Felipe
Most goals and assists
Rayo Vallecano
Alavés
J. De Frutos
(5 Goals)
,
A. Garcia
(5 Goals)
L. Boye
(3 Goals)
,
C. Vicente
(3 Goals)
P. Chavarria
(2 Assists)
, 
A. Ratiu
(2 Assists)
,
U. Lopez
(2 Assists)
,
A. Garcia
(2 Assists)
,
I. Palazon
(2 Assists)
C. Alena
(3 Assists)
Rayo Vallecano - Alavés Key Points
- Alaves average 1.89 goals per match in this league campaign with only Osasuna averaging fewer.
- Vallecano’s last eight league games average 2.13 goals per game and only three teams average fewer.
- Six of Vallecano’s last eight league fixtures ended with less than three goals.
- All four away games of Alaves this season saw two or fewer goals scored.
- The last seven league matches between these teams produced under 2.5 goals.
Limited Offer. Currently at Stake
Our Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés Prediction
This is a fixture that hasn’t traditionally wowed the neutral fans. The last seven league games between Vallecano and Alaves have seen fewer than three goals, and it would be a surprise if that trend is bucked here. That’s because Alaves have been involved in low-scoring games consistently in this campaign. To go with that, Alaves have the best defensive record after nine league games this season.
Vallecano’s home goals have also been low on goals, which is why our Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Rayo Vallecano Alavés
| Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano wins | 1.9 | 2.2 | +15.8% |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.1 | -8.8% |
| Alavés wins | 4.2 | 3.7 | -11.9% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Rayo Vallecano is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have increased by 15.8% since opening
- The probability of this result was 52.6% and is now 45.5% (-7.2%)
Get up to €100 to bet on the Rayo Vallecano vs. Alavés game
You can get yourself up to €150 in matched bets for the battle between Rayo Vallecano and Alavés when you join Betway. To get the free bet, your first accumulator bet needs to be a losing one. If your first bet wins, then you won't get the free bet, but you'll have your winnings for further fun on LaLiga!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
