Portugal vs Spain Prediction & Betting Tips - World Cup
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by Sridhar Bhamidi | in World Cup Predictions
Dallas Stadium will witness a blockbuster last 16 clash of the 2026 World Cup as European powerhouses Portugal and Spain look to move into the quarterfinals. 'La Roja' are looking to reach their first quarter-finals since winning the World Cup in the 2010 edition, while the 'Selecao' are eyeing a second consecutive last eight appearance. Which of these two defensively solid teams has a strong chance of meeting their objective from this Iberian Derby?
Portugal edged Croatia 2-1 in an emotionally charged last 32 match, although they hadn't dominated their opponents. Barring the 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan, the 'Selecao' have struggled for consistency.
Spain defeated Austria 3-0 in their last fixture in one of their best displays of this World Cup. Even without dominating teams, 'La Roja' have been one of the best defensive units of this tournament, keeping a clean sheet in all four games. Will that continue against their Iberian neighbors? Read more to find out about our match predictions and analysis, together with team news.
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Portugal v Spain Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
76 | 9.25 | 1.06 |
|
|
3.76 | 3.58 | 2.06 |
|
|
3.9 | 3.5 | 1.95 |
|
|
3.92 | 3.5 | 1.95 |
|
|
473 | 17 | 1.03 |
|
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What is the prediction for the football match between Portugal and Spain?
Our prediction for the Portugal vs Spain match is: less than 2.5 goals.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 06/07/2026 between Portugal and Spain in World Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 30.59% for a win of Portugal against Spain with odds of 473 at 22bet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Portugal vs Spain is 37.83% with odds of 17 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 31.58% chance ⭐ for a win of Spain vs Portugal with odds of 2.06 at 1xbet.
Portugal - Spain Prediction and Best Odds:
| Portugal Spain Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 37.83% | 17 at 22bet |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.58% | 2 at Bet365 |
| Both Team To Score: No | 51.25% | 2.29 at 1xbet |
| Half-time / Full-time: Draw/Draw | 16.77% | 5.5 at Bet365 |
Portugal vs Spain Form
Portugal and Spain Last Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
17 Jun 2026 - World Cup
10 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
23 Jun 2026 - World Cup
17 Jun 2026 - World Cup
10 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
16 Nov 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
27 Jun 2026 - World Cup
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
28 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
13 Nov 2025 - World Cup
9 Sept 2025 - World Cup
6 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
8 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
2 Jul 2026 - World Cup
21 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Jun 2026 - World Cup
8 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
4 Jun 2026 - International Friendlies
31 Mar 2026 - International Friendlies
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Jun 2026 - World Cup
15 Nov 2025 - World Cup
7 Sept 2025 - World Cup
4 Sept 2025 - World Cup
8 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
20 Mar 2025 - UEFA Nations League
Portugal vs Spain Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
0 %
83 %
17 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
8 Jun 2025 - UEFA Nations League
27 Sept 2022 - UEFA Nations League
2 Jun 2022 - UEFA Nations League
4 Jun 2021 - International Friendlies
7 Oct 2020 - International Friendlies
15 Jun 2018 - World Cup
Portugal - Spain: Form Analysis
A deep stoppage-time goal from Goncalo Ramos saw Portugal edge out Croatia 2-1 in their last 32 fixture. They conceded first in that match, which was just the second goal that they let in, in the tournament, although 'Selecao' were grateful to VAR that a late Croatian equalizer was chalked off.
Portugal are unbeaten in nine games (W6, D3) leading into this fixture, only conceding five goals in this sequence. This is the third consecutive World Cup edition that the Portuguese have reached the last 16 stage, having a W1, L1 record on the last two occasions.
Six of the last seven head-to-head matches ended level during regular time.
Spain brushed aside Austria 3-0 in their last 32 game to extend their clean sheet record in the tournament. The Spaniards are yet to concede in this World Cup, their performance was one of their best in this edition, almost close to their free-flowing usual standard.
'La Roja' have lost at the round of 16 stage in the last two editions and will be keen not to repeat that feat. Interestingly, both those matches saw Spain play out a draw within 90 minutes.
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Portugal against Spain Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Formation : 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Substitutes
R. Silva
J. Sa
DefenderT. Araujo
S. Costa
G. Inacio
D. Dalot
N. Semedo
M. Nunes
B. Silva
R. Neves
ForwardR. Leao
F. Trincao
G. Ramos
F. Conceicao
G. Guedes
J. Garcia
D. Raya
DefenderM. Pubill
E. Garcia
A. Grimaldo
M. Llorente
MidfielderM. Zubimendi
Gavi
M. Merino
F. Ruiz
F. Torres
Y. Pino
V. Munoz
N. Williams
B. Iglesias
Portugal & Spain Squad Analysis
Portugal have no fresh injury concerns ahead of this match, leaving manager Roberto Martinez with one less concern. They are likely to stick to their 4-2-3-1 formation, although questions remain over Cristiano Ronaldo's use.
Ronaldo was substituted in the game against Croatia, although he broke his duck of World Cup knockout goals in that fixture. They are yet to unlock the creativity of Bruno Fernandes or Pedro Neto (one assist each).
Goncalo Ramos has four goals in 187 minutes he played in World Cup matches.
Spain are still struggling with a few injury concerns, with Nico Williams, Yeremy Pino, and Victor Munoz still doubtful. Lamine Yamal started against Austria and looked injury-free and could be set for another start.
Yamal will once again line up on the right wing in Spain's 4-2-3-1 formation with the exciting Mikel Oyarzabal set to play as the lone striker. Oyarzabal has four goals and one assist in his last three matches, both braces, coming against Saudi Arabia and Austria.
Most goals and assists
Portugal
Spain
Cristiano Ronaldo
(3 Goals)
M. Oyarzabal
(5 Goals)
P. Neto
(1 Assists)
,
J. Cancelo
(1 Assists)
,
B. Fernandes
(1 Assists)
,
R. Leao
(1 Assists)
D. Olmo
(2 Assists)
,
M. Cucurella
(2 Assists)
Portugal - Spain Key Points
- Portugal have conceded just two goals in their four matches in this World Cup.
- Portugal conceded a total of just five goals in their last nine matches.
- Spain are yet to concede a goal in this World Cup.
- Spain haven’t conceded in 11 of their last 14 matches.
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Our Portugal vs Spain Prediction
Spain's win in the last 32 was perhaps their best show in this tournament – a demonstration of free-flowing football that they are known for. The underlying factor in Spain's progress so far has been their defensive performances, as they are yet to concede a goal. While that is bound to end some time in the tournament, Portugal's up-and-down performances don't inspire confidence.
Four of the last five matches between these sides saw under 2.5 goals, and that's one of the reasons why our Portugal vs Spain prediction is less than 2.5 goals.
Portugal vs Spain Alternative Predictions
Draw
Portugal and Spain are among the top five ranked sides in the world, and there's very little to separate these sides. Even historically, the last seven matches between these sides ended level during regulation time. That could once again be the case here. Back a draw after 90 minutes.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Portugal Spain
| Portugal vs Spain | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal wins | 4.12 | 473 | +11,380.6% |
| Draw | 3.72 | 17 | +357.0% |
| Spain wins | 1.99 | 2.06 | +3.5% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- A draw is the most likely outcome
- The odds for this bet have increased by 357.0% since opening
- The probability of this result was 26.9% and is now 5.9% (-21.0%)
Portugal vs Spain - FAQs
The Portugal vs Spain World Cup match will be shown live on RTP, SIC, TVI, and Sport TV in Portugal, while RTVE and Mediapro/DAZN are the official broadcasters in Spain. In the UK, STV (Central and Northern Scotland), BBC, and ITV are the official broadcasters.
You can follow the game through our live scores. Check out our World Cup Livescore page!
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
