Africa - African Nations Championship
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by Geoffrey Ejiga | in African Nations Championship Predictions
Madagascar and Morocco step into the spotlight for the Nations Championship final, with the underdogs from the island nation facing off against the tournament favorites who've been steamrolling through opposition all year long. Can Barea win their first CHAN trophy over The Atlas Lions who've won two of the last three? Find out in our Madagascar vs Morocco match prediction.
This David versus Goliath story has all the drama you could ask for, but the numbers tell a pretty clear tale about which way this final should swing. Morocco has been on an absolute fire lately, winning 17 of their last 20 games and looking every bit the dominant force that's claimed two of the last three CHAN titles.
And when Morocco wins, they usually do so with conviction, as they've finished with a clean sheet in 16 of their last 24 victories. Madagascar's journey to this final has been nothing short of miraculous, especially looking at their semifinal victory despite entering extra time with a man down. However, with just three full-time wins from their last ten games and a concerning habit of struggling to find the net consistently, they're walking into this final as massive underdogs for good reason.
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The Best Betting Odds for Madagascar v Morocco Match
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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5.5 | 3.1 | 1.65 |
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5.5 | 3.3 | 1.67 |
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5 | 3.2 | 1.65 |
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6 | 3.09 | 1.64 |
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4.9 | 3.2 | 1.73 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between Madagascar and Morocco?
Our prediction for the Madagascar vs Morocco match is: Morocco to win.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 30/08/2025 between Madagascar and Morocco in African Nations Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 22.03% for a win of Madagascar against Morocco with odds of 6.2 at Tonybet.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Madagascar vs Morocco is 21.21% with odds of 3.45 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 56.76% chance ⭐ for a win of Morocco vs Madagascar with odds of 1.74 at Stake.
Madagascar vs Morocco Form
Madagascar and Morocco Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
16 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
9 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
15 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
9 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
16 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
9 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
8 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
14 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
26 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
14 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
9 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
6 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
25 Mar 2025 - World Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
22 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
21 Mar 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - AFCON
15 Oct 2024 - AFCON
Madagascar - Morocco: Form Analysis
Dominant is the only way to describe Morocco's recent form. The Atlas Lions have been on a remarkable run, winning 17 of their last 20 games overall.
Their semi-final victory in the Nations Championship against Senegal, a 5-3 penalty shootout win after a 1-1 draw, demonstrated their resilience and composure under pressure.
Their latest victory follows a quarter-final win over Tanzania and a solid group stage performance despite a single loss to Kenya. Morocco's strength notably lies in its defensive solidity, which has been a key factor in its success, highlighted by its 16 clean sheets in its last 24 victories.
Now, the Moroccans march on, hoping to claim their third CHAN title in the last four editions.
For Madagascar, the journey to the final has been nothing short of a fairytale. They've only managed three full-time wins in their last ten games but have shown remarkable resilience, including a dramatic 1-0 extra-time semi-final victory over Sudan with a man down.
Qualifying for the knockouts was one thing, but reaching the final, especially after a grueling semi-final played with 10 men for the 79th minute through extra time, was something else.
With that kind of resilience, they should rightfully believe they can lift their first CHAN trophy.
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Madagascar & Morocco Squad Analysis
Morocco's squad, consisting mostly of domestic-based players for the Nations Championship, has been widely impressive, especially with the likes of Hakimi and Brahim Diaz missing out on the tournament.
Players Oussama Lamlioui, who’s netted four in his last three, and Sabir Bougrine, with two goals in just 110 minutes, have carried the Morocco side on their shoulders. Morocco, who are already favourites, are also thankful for entering this tie without any major injury reports.
Likewise, fellow finalists, Madagascar, have some key players to thank for their dream run. But unlike Morocco, with its attackers putting in the numbers, it’s Madagascar's defenders that have been brilliant.
Of Madagascar’s five highest-rated players in this tournament, there are three defenders and a keeper, and then one midfielder.
So far, defender Rijaniaina Randriamanampisoa has been the star man for Madagascar, boasting of the team’s highest rating per game and a player of the match performance in his last outing, despite no goals or assists in the tournament.
Next in the ranking is the Madagascar goalkeeper, Michel Ramandimbisoa. He’s averaging almost 5 saves per game in this tournament and has won two player of the match awards in his last three games.
Madagascar - Morocco Key Points
- Morocco has won 17 of their last 20 games by full-time and 24 of their last 29 matches overall.
- Of Morocco's last 24 victories, an impressive 16 have finished with clean sheets, showcasing defensive solidity.
- Madagascar have managed only three full-time wins from their last ten games, losing four and drawing three.
- Madagascar have scored more than one goal in just two of their last 12 games, highlighting attacking struggles.
- Morocco have won two of the last three CHAN tournaments, giving them the psychological advantage.
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Our Madagascar vs Morocco Prediction
Finals have a way of separating the dreamers from the champions, and this matchup feels like it's heading toward a fairly predictable ending. The Barea have already achieved more than anyone thought possible, but The Atlas Lions arrive with the experience and quality that usually decides these big moments.
Morocco's combination of attacking firepower and defensive reliability should prove too much for a Madagascar side that's been living on the edge throughout this tournament. While the islanders deserve credit for their remarkable run, championship finals typically reward the sharper side, and Morocco simply has too much quality across the pitch. Hence, our Madagascar vs Morocco prediction is Morocco to win.
Madagascar vs Morocco - Other Interesting Predictions
Both Teams to Score - No
Use £/€50 free bets for the Madagascar vs. Morocco game!
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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