Lens vs Nice Prediction & Betting Tips - French Cup
France - French Cup
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by Nella Wagah | in French Cup Predictions
The French Cup final 2025/26 will be a contest between Lens and Nice, two sides that have had quite contrasting returns in the season. Lens have never won this trophy but here there is a golden opportunity as their opponents are not only distracted but also in poor shape. Having bagged three more wins than Nice in the last 10 matches, our prediction falls kindly for Lens.
This match at Stade de France marks Lens’ fourth trip to the capital this season. They’ve lost two of the earlier three but will be confident of claiming a first trophy since winning Ligue 2 in 2008/09.
Nice’s proudest moments have come in this competition. This is one of the three crucial matches they remain with this season, the other two being against St. Etienne in the relegation playoffs. Lens and Nice will only be meeting for the second time in the Coupe de France. Below is the preview, with Nice having won the first cup clash 5-0 back in 1954.
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Lens v Nice Best Betting Odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.54 | 4.5 | 6 |
|
|
1.47 | 4.56 | 6.55 |
|
|
1.5 | 4.42 | 6.3 |
|
|
1.45 | 4.5 | 6 |
|
|
1.49 | 4.5 | 6.2 |
|
What is the prediction for the football match between Lens and Nice?
Our prediction for the Lens vs Nice match is: Lens wins.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/05/2026 between Lens and Nice in French Cup :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 50.94% for a win of Lens against Nice with odds of 1.68 at Betsson.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Lens vs Nice is 26.93% with odds of 4.8 at Tonybet.
- Our prediction model gives a 22.12% chance ⭐ for a win of Nice vs Lens with odds of 6.6 at Tonybet.
Lens - Nice Prediction and Best Odds:
| Lens Nice Prediction | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lens wins | 50.94% | 1.68 at Betsson |
| Under 2.5 | 54.28% | 2.2 at Betway |
| Both Team To Score | 50.83% | |
| Half-time: Draw / Full-time: Lens | 23.91% | 4.4 at LSbet |
Lens vs Nice Form
Lens and Nice Last Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - Ligue 1
13 May 2026 - Ligue 1
8 May 2026 - Ligue 1
2 May 2026 - Ligue 1
24 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Apr 2026 - French Cup
5/6 (83%)
0/6 (0%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 May 2026 - Ligue 1
8 May 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Apr 2026 - French Cup
17 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
20 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - Ligue 1
2 May 2026 - Ligue 1
24 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
5 Mar 2026 - French Cup
1/6 (17%)
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - Ligue 1
10 May 2026 - Ligue 1
2 May 2026 - Ligue 1
26 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Apr 2026 - French Cup
18 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
0/6 (0%)
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 May 2026 - Ligue 1
2 May 2026 - Ligue 1
12 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
21 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
8 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Feb 2026 - Ligue 1
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 May 2026 - Ligue 1
26 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
22 Apr 2026 - French Cup
18 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
4 Apr 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Mar 2026 - Ligue 1
Lens vs Nice Stats: Head to Head (H2H)
17 %
33 %
50 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
2 May 2026 - Ligue 1
14 Dec 2025 - Ligue 1
8 Feb 2025 - Ligue 1
28 Sept 2024 - Ligue 1
16 Mar 2024 - Ligue 1
20 Dec 2023 - Ligue 1
Lens - Nice: Form Analysis
Lens are the designated hosts in the final and will hope for a better trip to Paris after losing two of three this season. As the home team against Nice, though, they won their latest meeting 2-0 in December. The two sides faced off again earlier this month and played to a 1-1 draw.
Lens’ highlights of the season go beyond matches against Nice; this season they finished second in Ligue 1 for the first time since 2023. They have picked some great momentum from their title race, finishing just six points behind winners PSG. To get to the title match, Les Sang et Or thrashed Toulouse 4-1 and will be making a fourth appearance in the French Cup final.
Lens scored 16 times in the French Cup and conceded six goals.
Nice have had their best highlights of the season in Coupe de France. They eliminated three Ligue 1 sides, including Strasbourg (2-0) in the semi-final. This will be their sixth appearance in the CDF final and Les Aiglons will be eyeing a fourth trophy.
The last time they reached the final in this cup it didn’t all go well though, as they fell 1-0 to Nantes in 2022. A poor season in Ligue 1 means Nice come here distracted, as they have a two-legged relegation playoff against St. Etienne awaiting.
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Lens against Nice Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 3 - 4 - 3
Formation : 3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Substitutes
M. Gorgelin
DefenderR. Aguilar
A. Masuaku
MidfielderA. Bulatovic
A. Haidara
ForwardF. Sotoca
A. Sima
W. Said
R. Fofana
Y. Diouf
DefenderA. Abdi
A. Bah
MidfielderC. Vanhoutte
T. Louchet
K. Boudache
M. Sanson
T. Gouveia
Kevin Carlos
Missing players
J. Gradit
S. Baidoo
M. Bombito
MidfielderEverton
Lens & Nice Squad Analysis
Three absentees have been confirmed at Lens ahead of this game. Goalkeeper Regis Gurtner has been out since January with a muscle injury and will still miss this game. There shouldn’t be a problem though, as Robin Risser is available and well rested for this match.
He has featured in 37 matches this season and kept 12 clean sheets. In Coupe de France, he boasts a save rate of 62%. The others missing at Lens are Samson Baidoo and Jonathan Gradit. Scorers in the semi-final, Florian Thauvin, Allan Saint-Maximin, Mathieu Udol and Adrien Thomasson are all available for this game.
Former Lens forward Elye Wahi will lead Nice’s attack in this game.
Nice's Elye Wahi will be facing a familiar foe, having featured for Lens from 2023 to 2024. In a spell when he featured in 36 games, the striker netted 12 times. He will be confident about this particular game, having scored a brace in the semis.
In total this season, Wahi has nine goal contributions for Nice. The team will be without Moise Bombito who is nursing a leg injury, and Mohammed Abdelmonem, with a muscle issue.
Lens - Nice Key Points
- Nice lost their latest away match.
- Lens won two of their last three games.
- Nice are winless in nine of their last 10 games.
- Lens are unbeaten in the last two meetings with Nice.
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Our Lens vs Nice Prediction
Lens haven’t lost to Nice this season, as they go into their third meeting of 2025/26. The latest of them was drawn, while Lens had earlier won 2-0. For Lens, this will be their last match of a quite satisfactory season in which they pushed PSG almost to the wire.
It is all different for Nice. After a poor campaign, they still have a two-legged affair in the relegation playoffs. As such, Nice will likely be distracted, which could cost them this game. Our prediction for Lens v Nice is that Lens wins.
Lens vs Nice Alternative Predictions
BTTS: No
In the last four meetings between these teams, three clean sheets were produced. Nice also had a clean sheet in their last outing though that was in a 0-0 draw, against relegated Metz.
Lens’ last three matches had a loss and two wins and in the wins came clean sheets. Going into this game we expect at least one side to keep a clean sheet.
Last Minute: Pre-match odds analysis Lens Nice
| Lens vs Nice | Opening odds | Pre-match odds | Odds Movements |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens wins | 1.68 | 1.68 | 0% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.8 | +21.5% |
| Nice wins | 4.9 | 6.6 | +34.7% |
After kick-off, the latest odds movements show that:
- Lens is most likely to win
- The odds for this bet have not changed since opening
- The probability of this result was 59.5% and is now 59.5% (0.0%)
Lens vs Nice - FAQs
This match will be played on Friday 22nd May.
This match will be staged at the Stade de France.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
