Africa - African Nations Championship
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by Kennedy Kechula | in African Nations Championship Predictions
After their blistering run at the 2025 African Nations Championship (Chan), co-hosts Kenya are set to meet Madagascar in the quarter-finals. In the first of four quarters, Kenya will welcome Madagascar at Kasarani. We have the prediction for the match below.
The Harambee Stars topped Group A, which was otherwise christened the toughest, bagging 10 points from a possible 12. Beating two-time Chan champions Morocco and DR Congo were the highlights for the debutants.
They also drew with Angola (1-1) and beat Zambia (1-0) in the other matches. Kenya has beaten Madagascar in four of their last 11 meetings, the latest being in 2019. Current skipper Abud Omar and goalkeeper Farouk Shikhalo are the remaining members of that 2019 squad.
Madagascar will be switching from Dar es Salaam, where they played their group matches, to Nairobi. The Islanders finished second in a Group B that was topped by other hosts, Tanzania.
Two wins, a loss, and a draw saw them finish on seven points. Their only defeat was inflicted by Tanzania on matchday two. A run of just three wins across their last 10 matches means Madagascar will enter this game as the underdogs.
That’s despite having the head-to-head advantage over Kenya, with five wins from 11 previous meetings. They’ve suffered five losses in their previous 10 games.
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The Best Betting Odds for Kenya v Madagascar Match
Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Bonus up to |
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1.8 | 2.9 | 4.5 |
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1.95 | 2.88 | 4.33 |
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1.85 | 2.9 | 4.4 |
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1.91 | 2.8 | 4.5 |
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1.87 | 2.85 | 4.5 |
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What is the prediction for the football match between Kenya and Madagascar?
Our prediction for the Kenya vs Madagascar match is: Kenya wins the match.
Probabilities according to our algorithm* of possible 1X2 football predictions and best odds for the match on 22/08/2025 between Kenya and Madagascar in African Nations Championship :
- The Sportytrader ⭐ algorithm estimates a probability of 48.13% for a win of Kenya against Madagascar with odds of 1.95 at Betfred.
- The probability according to Sportytrader ⭐ for a draw between Kenya vs Madagascar is 23.36% with odds of 3.13 at 22bet.
- Our prediction model gives a 28.51% chance ⭐ for a win of Madagascar vs Kenya with odds of 4.9 at Tonybet.
Kenya vs Madagascar Form
Kenya and Madagascar Last Matches

4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
7 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
10 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
10 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
23 Mar 2025 - World Cup
19 Nov 2024 - AFCON
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
17 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
7 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
20 Mar 2025 - World Cup
15 Nov 2024 - AFCON
11 Oct 2024 - AFCON
10 Sep 2024 - AFCON

2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
9 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
15 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
13 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
13 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
3 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
15 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
9 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
24 Mar 2025 - World Cup
14 Nov 2024 - AFCON
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
16 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
9 Aug 2025 - African Nations Championship
13 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
8 Jun 2025 - International Friendlies
7 Jun 2025 - COSAFA Cup
19 Mar 2025 - World Cup
Kenya - Madagascar Key Points
- Madagascar lost five times in their last 10 matches.
- Across their last 15 matches, Madagascar won just five.
- Kenya are unbeaten in the last six matches, winning four.
- Kenya suffered only three defeats in their last 15 matches.
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Our Kenya vs Madagascar Prediction
Kenya was one of the two nations to score more than six points and finish unbeaten at the group stage. The other was Tanzania, who beat Madagascar. The host nation has done well, with vocal home support and political goodwill. This will be another match the Harambee Stars approach high in confidence.
They have a better run compared to Madagascar, and playing in front of home fans should lift them again. Madagascar have had their shaky moments in this competition already, and this could be the farthest they get. Our prediction for Kenya v Madagascar is that Kenya wins the match.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

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